Monday, January 18, 2010

GUARANTEED MONEY .............

OK, the title of this post might be a little misleading, as I am writing this only for former subscribers to the email service, who have the possibility to ensure a profit on our only long term bet on the NFL this year.

On September 13th I sent the following preview on the newsletter and also reproduced it in the blog several weeks later. Here I suggested betting New Orleans each way at 25-1 to win the Superbowl and they are now down to the final four and we are looking at a bumper payout. Saints looked back to their best on Saturday with a 45-14 thumping of Arizona, all of their points came in the opening two and a half quarters, after which they switched to auto pilot and began to prepare to host their first championship game in franchise history.

Effectively we have 2.5 points on the Saints to win that game @ 13.5 and they are a 1.5 shot on most books. The real bonus is that we can take their semi-final opponents with a handicap start to tie up some profit and hope that our team could win by four or less points and collect on all of the bets ! Which is the dream scenario.

I would advise you taking 16.35 points Minnesota Vikings +4.5 pts -109 Pinnacle Sports...... circa 1.90 is freely available across the board.

This means that if Saints lose the championship game we will win 10 points in total (15 on this bet, less the 5 originally staked), if they win but lose in the Superbowl game we will profit by a minimum 12.4 points, should they go all the way, we will be sitting on a whopping minimum 77.4 points ! I say minimum for the last two figures as, if Saints beat the Vikings by 1-4 points, you can add another 15 to those numbers.

I will finish with a few words about the African Cup of Nations, where we see the conclusion of Group A, hosts Angola only need a point to ensure progression to the next stage, but could do so even with a narrow loss. All four teams can still qualify for the knockout stage, Mali can only do so with a win, for the rest it is a little more complex. I am not putting a bet up here, but do feel that Angola will do whatever possible to win the group, this would mean they would remain in the capital Luanda and not move the 400km or so to Cabinda, where the much smaller stadium (20,000 capacity opposed to 50,000 sell out crowds in the Estádio 11 de Novembro ) and slightly unfamiliar surrounding will negate some of their home nation advantage. Doubtless both they and Algeria will have one eye on the other game and it would not surprise anyone if the Angola game was a little "delayed" in starting........... just in case. OK, I admit I am a cynic, but that is the way of things in football.

Mali at least know what that their minimum requirement is three points, so will be forced to take the game to Malawi, who will be happy to sit back and try and retain the point which will be enough for them, unless Algeria produce a shock win. So there you have it, three teams playing cat and mouse and a fourth going all out for the win. An early goal in Cabinda, especially for Mali would really open that game up and make for a much better spectacle, but 15-20 minutes in, we should know everything about the respective motivation of all four teams and I would suggest possibly waiting until then.

Good Luck.

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