FRIDAY UPDATE ....

I have put a heavily edited copy of today's email,sent to subscribers this morning, in the post below, you might still find a snippet or two of interest. I have just finished my J-League notes for the morning, they include four selections, one at odds of 7.50, that I really like.  Seven match previews for subscribers today, plus the FA Cup and Golf notes, all for a couple of euros. You can still email me at gowi8@btinternet.com and get supcriptions details, not only could you be on the subscriber list for tomorrow, but also get the rest of December completely free too.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY EMAIL ....

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 30th

Next email will be sent at 16.00 UK time today and will cover the final round of J-League matches.

As usual, on a Friday at this time of year, the focus is on Ligue 2, but I can start with a few words about the FA Cup second round tie between Bradford City and Brentford. City have played a lot of matches, two more than the Bees in the last month, they have played a midweek match for five straight weeks before this and are distracted by their Capital One Cup game with Arsenal in 11 days time. They are a big club at L2 level and really have to have promotion as a priority, they play a JPT game next midweek too. Reading between the lines, I think they will field a strong team today and rest as many as possible for the Port Vale match. It is very cold in the UK, especially up North with below freezing temperatures forecast for kick off.  Brentford will rotate their squad, but we have talked many times about the keen competition for starting places and they have very good options in almost every position. They are keen to win, boss Uwe Rosler has been "promised" he can use any funds generated from a big third round tie to further strengthen the squad, they have had City watched, highlighted some of their set pieces and have been putting in extra work on the training pitch this week to combat these plays. Unfortunately, I think the odds are just about correct, so no involvement from me, however , I can point out that City have been especially vunerable just before the break, conceding 29% of all their goals between the 30-45th minute, duruing the same period the Bees have yet to concede a single goal.

FRANCE LIGUE 2:

ARLES- LE MANS

Hosts did us a favour last week with their derby win at Istres, when I wrote....

The decision to replace Thierry Laurey as Arles coach with youth academy boss Pierre Mosca was not popular with supporters or players alike, but it is done now and everyone has had 18 days to come to terms with the interim appointment. Mosca started with a 3-0 defeat to Laval, but has had 14 virtually free days to work with the players and get his ideas across and they stopped the rot ( one Ligue 2 win in ten) with a 1-0 road cup win, albeit against lowly opposition, last weekend. He now needs to get something from the derby game with neighbours Istres, where a result will get everyone on his side and he is helped in this endeavour by the return from suspension of defensive midfielder Julien Cardy (14-1-0) and from injury, of winger Chaouki Ben Saada (4-0-0), both are big plusses for the new coach, only one loss (to Monaco) in six when Ben Saada plays.

That win has been described as fortunate in several places, as the home side had a man sent off and we saw little from Arles as an offensive unit until very late, but how do you expect a team who had lost seven in a row to play away to a highflying opponent , come out all guns blazing ? They needed to stop the rot and that was mission accomplished, Mosca changed the squad around and must have been overjoyed with the outcome.....

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS

Arles-Avignon : Yattara, Roques - Cantini, Quintin, Soro, Abdelhamid, N'Diaye, Plessis, Rodriguez, Cardy, Ben Saada, Douniama, Savanier, Akalé, Pieroni, Suarez.

Le Mans : Janot, Makaridze - Buaillon, Doumbia, Koné, Kassai, Cuffaut, Derouard, Zito, Kanté, Thomas, Sanson, Baby, Thomert, Mendes, Sylla.

Arles have scored 42% of their goals in the last 15 minutes of games.

GFCO AJACCIO- CLERMONT

I think it is ......

 

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS

GFC Ajaccio : Maury, Gigliarelli - Filippi, Rachidi, Davidas, Kehiha, Romey, Colinet, Dufau, Chevalier, Sinapi, Seymand, Poggi, Laïfa, Collorédo, Saadi, Touré.

Clermont : Farnolle, Fabre - Avinel, Perrinelle, Saïss, Imorou, Esor, Ekobo, Bayod, Capelle, Dembélé, Salibur, Bockhorni, Fomen, Sylla, Armand.

Hosts have scored 50% of their goals in the last 30 minutes.

Clermont have conceded 48% of their goals and scored 52% in the 30 minutes before the break ( 16th-45th minute)

RACING CLUB LENS- LAVAL

Two teams on the up, we highlighted Laval very early in their upturn as a potential improver and I am pleased with that, they have lost just once in eight, a defeat at Le Mans where they paid the price for a slow start, that was "one of those days" when everything went wrong and we can forget that. They were .....

 

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS

Lens : Kasraoui, Riou - Bergdich, A.Touré, Yahia, Baal, Coeff, Démont, Le Moigne, Plumain, Nomenjanahary, S.Sow, Valdivia, D.N'Diaye, Pollet, Touzghar.

Laval : Balijon, Vanhamel - Belaud, Perrot, Talmont, Falette, Rose, Gonçalves, Betsch, Gamboa, Ewolo, Hamdi, Troaré, Do Marcolino, Viale, Lebouc.

Lens have conceded 55% of all their goals in the last 30 minutes.

Laval conceded 39% in the last 15 minutes.

I can finish with a few words about XXX XXX at the World Challenge .....

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS

Good Luck.

CONTACT: gowi8@btinternet.com

THURSDAY ....THE BIGGER PICTURE ....

I swerved the maximum stake bet today, that had more to do with limits than anything else, but have put up three selections at odds of 2.06, 2.07 and 4.0, the last two of which are for the weekend and ranked "very strong" (1.75 units), the other is for this evening.

Thank you for the big response to yesterday's post (see below) and please,still feel free to email me on gowi8@btinternet.com , if you are interested in the email service. If not, there will be two emails on each of the next three days for subscribers, which is probably circa 15 previews, so we will probably be able to post one or two either here on the blog, or on the social media pages, but to get to see the full picture, you really need to subscribe and at less than two euros per email, the cost is hardly prohibitive.

This week there will be 11 emails sent to subscribers, the Watford notes two posts down, are just one of  what is likely to be 30 event/ match previews. Not all are that long, but each is a full preview and if you think that there is something of interest in that post, multiply that by 20-30 and then by 182 days, that is what you get for a six month subscription........ even more if you are very quick.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY....THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM ....

If any of you took that 12.0 for Watford to be promoted yesterday, you will have been pleased with the 4-1 win at Sheffield Wednesday and they are already down to circa 9.0.

Not a hugely interesting day today IMO, I have previewed two matches for subscribers, but the real fun this week starts with tomorrow's email. When I am planning to have four selections, two ranked very strong and possibly including just the fourth maximum stake bet of 2012. These are not "bankers" by any means ( I NEVER use that word), but they do fulfill all my criteria ,the other three all won at odds of 2.0 + and I am loathe to mess up that record !

I will have at least two emails for subscribers each day for the rest of the week ( Fri-Sun) and ten emails every seven days is now pretty much the norm and means the service offers even better value for money, if that were possible !

If any of you have ever seriously considered signing up to the email service ( full details are on this link), then now is a very good time to take the plunge. Send me an email at gowi8@btinternet.com , I will send details and do my best to make it as pain free, although not totally cost free, as possible.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

NOTHING'S IM-POZZO-BLE !

Long Term Position Update

I am going to update our overall situation, especially regarding the outstanding long term positions we hold, this week, it is going to be a bit of an epic and I will need two emails to cover everything, but it is worthwhile reading as I believe almost everything I write is, but then, I am biased !

We have had a very good eight months or so on the email service, November has not been kind with two very poor weeks, but they were overdue and still, the entire period has produced a ROI of circa 117% + on red type bets alone, I do not want to get bogged down in these stats, because, as I am tired to saying and you are doubtless sick of hearing, they do not overly matter to me. The black type "suggestions" would have produced even better returns, which are not included and the best value of all, is the actual content.

I write an average of 25-30 previews per week on the email service and in my opinion, some 80% plus of them are very good and most of the rest are OK at worse and almost all will include at least one snippet of useful information, that is probably not freely available elsewhere.

The previews are written to be read, the idea is that you do so and make up your own mind about what, if anything, to bet, there is choice and a degree of substance, most previews are 300-400 words long and the cost of the service is competitive enough that you can be as selective as you wish. There are 10-11 emails most weeks and each costs far less than the Racing Post, which is the main sports betting newspaper in the UK.

This is an important point .... I have a kind of obligation to write about a certain number of matches/events, it is far more of a daily newsletter than a tipping service, there are going to be swings, good and bad, it is like a rollercoaster, we are going to end up in the right place at the finish of the ride, but there will be peaks and troughs along the way, if you decide to bet everything, or all red type selections and not read previews, that is fine, it is your choice, everything is your decision, you will not get as much out of the emails IMO, but it is up to you.

If you do read the emails in full, not only will you get more out of them, but you should quickly be able to tell when I am extra keen on something and this enthusiasm is normally worth following, I have an especially good record with the very long priced picks/suggestions/selections and don't be put off something just because the odds are big, that is a crazy kind of logic. It stands to reason that there will be bets I like much more than others and this is not always indicated by the staking system, which is sometimes restrictive and in the process of being reviewed.

Basically, I write the previews, you make the choice, if you win or lose, you can curse or praise the gambling gods if you wish, but at the end of the day, it is down to you.

I think the service is incredibly good and when the new website starts in early January, it is probably going to get much better, with added options for subscribers.

For the rest of this email(s), I would like to talk about our remaining long term selections, there are not that many, but almost all of our positions are interesting and a couple are incredibly exciting.

Lets start in the Championship, on August 16th I wrote ....

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP: OUTRIGHT

We already have those very early bets ( June 19th) on Watford at big odds 66-1 to win and 14-1 for promotion and they look solid , the Hornets might need time, but the Pozzo family have a blueprint for success and achieved it in double quick time at both Udinese and Granada. They have already begun to ship the players in from the other two clubs, although most are Udinese players anyway and I suspect that this will continue, until they find the right combination/ blend for Watford . Last year Watford finished 11th, just eleven points off the palyoffs, so we are not talking about them needing huge improvement to get involved at the business end. Players like Alex Geijo with 28 goals in 60 Granada starts, Daniel Pudil with Serie A and Champions League experience last season, Almen Abdi ( 33 starts for Udinese last season) etc are going to bring a lot to the Championship and they have been brought in along with some really promising young talent like 19 yo Leo Beleck who scored plenty of goals for the Udinese B team and played 25 matches for AEK in Greece last season. Anyway, the Hornets are now down to 33-1 and 9-1 respectively, we have good value and should get some fun for our money.

I spoke about Cardiff City earlier this week... City have finished top seven in the Championship in each of the last four seasons, losing out in the playoffs in the last three. They have shown terrific bouncebackability each time and are unbeaten on the opening day in each of those campaigns. They have certainly found some form in pre season scoring twelve goals in winning their last four, including a 4-1 thumping of Newcastle United, that was a wonderful performance and the Bluebirds look a much stronger outfit this season, with coach Malky Mackay making seven new signings....Filip Kiss (Slovan Bratislava), Jordan Mutch (Birmingham City), Etien Velikonja (NK Maribor), Kim Bo-Kyung (Cerezo Osaka), Heidar Helguson (Queens Park Rangers), Joe Lewis (Peterborough United) and Craig Bellamy (Liverpool). In Aron Gunnarson they have a young holding midfieder improving with every performance, Peter Whittingham, Mutch,  Bellamy and Bo-Kyung ( who looks an inspired signing) give them a real touch of class, Lewis offers competition for the starting goalkeeping spot and Helguson a real aerial threat, in short, City look the real deal and full of goals, this might well be the season they make it to the promised land of Premier league football. Newcastle boss Alan Pardew said: “They have some very good young players and Bellamy will be a great signing for them. They have a big chance of promotion. The manager is great and I could see them finishing in the top two of the Championship.”

They look far better equipped this year and would be my main pick for the title at circa 12-1 ( 13.0) and if you are on Watford, I would suggest you also take a little on the Bluebirds, as I expect them to go very close.

The earlier notes on Watford were very basic, as we were trying to jump the gun and get on first ...

Sorry, this has to be very quick.

The  Board of Directors, acting on behalf of Watford Football Club, is pleased to confirm that agreement has been reached in principle for the transfer of ownership to the Pozzo family.

Representatives from the family have been in discussions with Watford Football Club and both parties have agreed initial terms.

This is on the official Watford site and has been in the offering for some time, the Pozzo family own Udinese and Granada, they got the Spanish club into the top flight in double quick time and are very shrewd, they sent a lot of promising Udinese players to Spain for long term loans and can be expected to do similar for the Hornets.

Watford finished 11th last year, 11 points off the playoffs and seem sure to go better, with such backing.

They are circa 50-1 to win the Championship and there is even some 66-1 in a place, 12-1 and 14-1 for promotion, none of which is likely to last long, especially if they start to ship players in and those odds are probably too big in any case, so i suggest you take a little.

So, where are we with Cardiff City and Watford ? City are top of the table and are priced as favourites now in most books at a general 3.75.They are 9-0-0 at home and if they had been better able to hold onto a couple of leads on the road, they would be trading at even money now. The Hornets are 11th, ten points off the top, but just two adrift of a playoff spot, they have dropped ten points from winning positions, four of those came against two of the three form teams in the Championship and are worth looking at. Away to Cardiff they led for well over 40 minutes and held out for twenty at 1-1 with nine men, before conceding a last minute winner, they also led for 30m against Middlesbrough, again played a very long time a man short and held out at 1-1 for 30 minutes with ten players. Plenty to take from those, I spoke to someone, a neutral ,who watched the Watford-Leicester City match, the visitors are many peoples idea of the best team in the division, or were until recently and he said that Watford were unplayable for 30-35 minutes. They are a work in progress, it was always going to be like that, we took the huge odds, in case everything clicked and it still might.

Boss Gianfranco Zola said recently his team were "ahead of schedule in their development" and added "I don't know the capabilities of this team. I don't know exactly where we can get to - whether we can get mid-table or the play-offs or whatever. I'm finding out more and more about my team day by day."If you ask me where we can be at the end of the season, I don't know. I'm sure we can do well."

They are currently 33-1 to win the Championship and circa 10-1 to get promotion, a little higher in a place or two and that second quote looks on the big side. Firstly,they have already played a lot of strong teams on the road in Leeds United, Cardiff City , Bolton Wanderers, Blackburn Rovers and Crystal Palace. Secondly, the players that they have brought in probably still have improvement in them,  currently a dozen are on loan from Udinese or Granada and Zola has rotated his large squad, so might not even know his best eleven yet. . Also, I wonder what could happen with regard to further and possibly even better loans from the parent club, if Watford made further progress through December, you can also actually play additional "loanees" by making existing deals permanent, which would be a little unethical, if you were later to sell them back, but not against the rules as I understand them. I have no reason to think this will happen, just speculating about what is possible, if that EPL carrot was dangling infront of the Pozzo family and the "parent"club were safe and had nothing to play forin Serie A, which looks highly likely to the case very soon.

Leicester City website: Bright in their movement, smart in possession and watchful in defence, Watford looked a well balanced side and in the lively Forestieri, carried a contstant attcking threat.

We can always take a little chance on big prices, we do not have to be right too often , the rewards are good and they are "cheap" bets, if you are not already on, 12.0 for promotion looks ok and should give you some interest in the coming months, anything further that happens loan or transfer wise, can only be a bonus.

The Premier League notes........REST OF THE NOTES COVERING OUR OUTRIGHT POSITIONS ON THE  EPL, LEAGUE 1, LEAGUE 2 AND NFL ARE AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ....EVERY CLOUD HAS A SILVER LINING ....

I have previewed five matches today and John has posted one of them in full on the GOWI Facebook page, I have given you the "head up" about the post today, but if you do want to see all the free previews, you will have to check out the social network pages on a regular basis.

I am strong on three of these selections and all the previews are good, they are always good !

My time on Blogger is coming to an end , less than six weeks to go now and it makes me feel a little sad just thinking about it. Close to seven years on here, well over 4,000 posts, a couple of million words, some gibberish, a bit of wisdom, a million + hits, a few misses !

The new website will give us so many more options, that the decision to move is a "no brainer", but that doesn't make leaving any easier !  Anyway, hopefully I can see out the rest of 2012 with some of my best previews on here and Facebook, so check them out !

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

THE SECOND MOST FAMOUS CJ TO HAVE A BIG AFTERNOON IN DETROIT ....

NFL :

The traditional Thanksgiving Day games, with the Lions and Cowboys always hosting on the big day. Three selections for us at odds of 2.08, 4.50 and 7.50, starting in Detroit .

HOUSTON TEXANS@ DETROIT LIONS

Detroit are 1-7 on Thanksgiving since moving to Ford Field.

Houston are the number one ranked team currently in the AFC with a 9-1 record, but are 1-1 in non conference games, having lost 42-24 to Green Bay of the NFC North, the same division as the Lions. They edged past another in the Chicago Bears just two weeks ago in the match where Jay Cutler got injured and left the field at the half , we saw how poor the Bears were without him on Monday. On Sunday, the Texans had a massive shootout with Jacksonville, allowing the Jaguars backup quarterback Chad Henne to pick apart the Texans’ highly regarded (by some) defense, with 458 yards and four touchdown passes, posting 37 points. Houston found a way to finally stop Henne late in the game and won by six points, but the quick turnaround in games, means very little time to work on those defensive shortcomings and now they face the Lions, who have the #2 ranked offense in the NFL.

Lions quarter back Matthew Stafford is a much better passer than Henne and is looking to bounce back after a bad day against Green Bay, where he had a low completion rate, but his team pushed the Pack all the way, not all the misplaced pases were his fault and on another day, they could/should have won that game. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson leads the league in yards receiving and in receptions of at least 20 yards , with the Lions having given up completed passes of 39, 63,67 and 81 yards against the Jags and with top cornerback Johnathan Joseph nursing a sore hamstring and having sat out practice on Monday and Tuesday, he will be salivating at the thought of this game, infront of a massive television audience. Fellow wide receiver Titus Young was benched for this game by coach Jim Schwartz for "unacceptable behavior", I do not see this as a negative, it sends a message to the rest of the team and Young has not played well enough to get away with those kind of antics. Texans also have other issues, mainly with their defensive line and I fancy a bit of an upset here and Detroit to break that Thanksgiving hoodoo.I favour the Lions +3 points 2.08 Pinnacle Sports for 1.25 units

WASHINGTON REDSKINS@DALLAS COWBOYS

 

Redskins are 1-6 on Thanksgiving, losing all six in Dallas and .....

 

Good Luck.

 

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

EUROPA LEAGUE .........

FC BASEL- SPORTING LISBON

I like the odds about the home win here. Portugese teams always give the competition huge respect, but Sporting have only a small chance to progress and are going to have to depart from their normal game plan and open up here , looking for the win and Basel are far better suited to an open game IMO. I suspect that Sporting having beaten Braga las week, will be giving their trip to Moreiense on Monday greater importance, as they have to get in touch with the top three at the very least, a midtable campaign is just not acceptable and they currently trail Braga by seven points, the top two by 13 ! That victory last week would have been welcome relief for coach Franky Vercauteren, the "Little Prince" took charge at the end of last month and that was his first win, I can see that he would like to keep the momentum up, but his priority has to surely be the league. Hosts have finally kick started their season and have won their last five starts, getting themselves to within touching distance of the top in the Super League and with a chance of progression in Europe, three points tonight would leave matters firmly in their own hand. They have to play Thun away on Sunday, but the hosts have collected just one point from six starts and Basel have not lost there in nine visits, so I think they can focus on Sporting just for now. Their new coach Murat Yakin had a far more immediate impact at the helm than Vercauteren, he made his name as a player on some famous european nights here at St.Jakob-Park and would love to bring a big name here in the later stages of the competition. Visitors arrive without suspended midfielder Stijn Schaars.1.25 units FC Basel -0.5 ball 2.11 asian line.

Sporting: Rui Patrício, Marcelo Boeck, Victor Golas, Xandão, Marcos Rojo, Tiago Ilori, Cédric Soares, Emiliano Insúa, Daniel Pranjic, Médios: Elias, André Martins, Adrien Silva, Gelson Fernandes, Rinaudo, André Carrillo, Diego Capel, Ricky van Wolfswinkel, Valentín Viola, Zakaria Labyad and Betinho

 

Good Luck.

TACHE TASTIC !

I am not sure what cheered me up most this midweek, the mighty Bees winning 1-0 at Swindon or Michael Owen on Sky Sports !

I know that this is in aid of a good cause, but there should be a camapign to get Owen to keep the facial hair beyond Movember, he looks like a 12 yo trying to buy alcohol or cigarettes !

Absolutely fantastic, but I do not know how he can keep a straight face !

Good Luck.

PLAY UP POMPEY ....

LEAGUE 1

PORTSMOUTH-LEYTON ORIENT

I am not a big fan of Orient, they lose a lot of games, 23 already in 2012 and that will get you relegated in almost every season and we are talking about their results over 41 matches, not 46.

The O's are coming off a 4-1 win at Carlisle United on Saturday and they had a midweek cup game at Gloucester before that, despite the confidence gained from that big win, that is about 20 hours spent on a bus in the last six days and that will take a toll, either tonight, or at home to Preston on Saturday.

Pompey have not scored in six and have a lot of well documented problems, but there is a little light at the end of the tunnel. The takeover deal with the Supporter's Trust looks set to go through before Christmas and would take the club out of administration. On the pitch, they have been creating chances, but the ball has not fallen for them in front of goal and they have hit the woodwork a division high 11 times this season. They signed signed Peterborough winger Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Swindon striker Paul Benson on loans last week, both played in the 1-0 home defeat to Doncaster Rovers and will be more in sync with their team mates tonight.Yesterday they re-signed central defender Ricardo Rocha, the former Portugese international made 76 appearances for Portsmouth, before his contract was terminated because of the financial problems and he will fit seemlessly back into the line up. This is going to give caretaker boss Guy Whittingham, who also has Scott Allan back from a three match suspension,  more options, his team have been on the South Coast for the last ten days, with no travel, just the one match and should strip much the fresher of the two teams. 1.25 units Portsmouth -0.25 ball 2.00.

 

Good Luck.

 

Four matches discussed in today's email, for details on how to read the other three email me at ............ gowi8@btinternet.com

 

 

SUNDAY MORNING .........

SPAIN: LA LIGA

SEVILLA - BETIS

Sevilla have named every available player in the squad, not wishing to give any information away to their neighbour and bitter rival, so only midfielder Piotr Trochowski (6-2-1) is out for sure. Betis were being similarly coy earlier in the week and both coaches are looking to gain every possible advantage. These are very keenly fought derby games with no quarter given and there have been only two wins by more than a single goal in the last decade( 20 meetings), nine of those have ended all square and both teams tend to set out with avoiding defeat as a priority, both teams are coming off losses last time out and I am sure that was down to the derby factor, with so much local attention on the big game. REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

FRANCE: LIGUE 1

BORDEAUX- OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE

Following PSG's failure to beat nine man Rennes last night, the winner of this could go top today, the visitors could do so with a point and I think they would be happy with that, having a dire record in this fixture and being very hard hit with injuries . Hosts are unbeaten at the Chaban-Delmas stadium (2-3-0), but need to start turning some of those draws into wins if they are to mount a serious title challenge, they are 8-5-1 at home and 16-11-4 overall in 2012 where they have been as strong as anyone in the last twelve months, including PSG, infact, the pair will have an identical 17-11-4 record if Bordeaux take maximum points today and I am taking them to do so.

OM started the season on fire, winning their first six starts, just one in five since then, it is the goals against column which is suddenly giving huge cause for concern, they have kept just one cleansheet in nine, conceding two or more in six over that sequence and have developed a nasty habit of conceding late equalisers recently. Today, they will be without their three main strikers in Andre-Pierre Gignac (9-5-0), Loic Remy (8-0-00 and  Jordan Ayew (11-3-1). They have named Florian Raspentino ( 23 yo just 27 minutes of L1 action this season), Billel Omrani( 19 yo, with 3 minutes of one Europa League game to his name) and Fabrice Apruzesse ( 27yo but only played for the B team) as their three attackers, they do have the option to push Andre Ayew up front, but this is far from ideal, with Joey Barton still out.

Hosts have no real problems and boast a tremendous record in this fixture, having not lost at home to OM for over three decades, that run should continue and if Lyon do not win the early game, three points should see Bordeaux top of the pile, which will get the locals very excited.  Bordeaux -0.5 ball.

Bordeaux:  Carrasso, Keita, Chalmé, Henrique, Mariano, Planus, Sané, Trémoulinas, Ben Khalfallah, Jussiê, Nguemo, Obraniak, Plasil, Saivet, Bellion, Diabaté, Gouffran, Maurice-Belay.

Marseille :Mandanda, Sy, Fanni, Abdallah, Nkoulou, Diawara, Mendes, Morel, Mbow,  Kaboré, Cheyrou, Abdullah, Valbuena, Amalfitano, A.Ayew, Raspentino, Omrani, Apruzesse

 

MLS CUP PLAYOFFS:

We look set for an exact repeat of last year's final, with Galaxy hosting Dynamo at the Home Depot Center, as DC United and the Sounders face a very tough task to turn these second legs around.

DC UNITED - HOUSTON DYNAMO (1-3) written Friday 16/11

United look to have more of a chance, as they "only" trail by two goals ( remember, no away goal rule in this competition), but as we discussed previously, Houston are the archetypal playoff team, have a tactically astute coach who thrives in the post season and appear to have United's "number" having dominated the series in Texas and scoring freely here in the capital, with two or more goals in four of their last five visits. Much of this was covered ahead of the first leg, when we were firmly in the Houston camp and my notes for that game are reproduced at the foot of this email. Highlights of the first match can be viewed here LINK, United were unlucky and the hosts should have been a man down just before the break, but the referee did not see, what every other person in the stadium saw and Houston dodged a bullet.

Dynamo went to Sporting Kansas City in the last round holding a two goal lead and looked to sit on that lead, they lost that 1-0 and whilst it was job done, they have done a lot of soul searching about how they approached the return leg and midfielder Brad Davis said “hopefully, we learned a little bit of a lesson to try and we will not sit back so much." United are strong at home (12-4-1), where they have scored 37 goals during the regular season, second only to the San Jose Earthquakes, they also had a +20 goal difference at RFK Stadium. They will have no choice but to throw everything at Dynamo and that is going to create space for Houston to exploit on the break.

Hosts have doubts about striker Chris Pontius (31-12-4), Brandon McDonald centreback (33-2-3) and midfielder Marcelo Saragosa (16-1-1), who played 12, 56 and 40 minutes respectively in the first leg, after all left the field injured, also throw star player Dwayne De Rosario (26-7-9 see first leg preview below) into the mix, he did not feature even on the bench, but will surely play some part in the return and you will see that coach Ben Olsen has some huge decisions to make. Keeper Bill Hamid (24-0-0) returns, right winger Andy Najar ( 25-0-4) remains out with a suspension. Nothing to lose now, they have to go for broke and gamble, whatever decisions Olsen makes are going to be at the expense of their defence, at least in terms of protection and I can see this getting very stretched.

For Dynamo everyone is still reporting doubts about several players....
REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

 

If you would like to receive all the GOWI daily notes in full, delivered directly to your inbox and at a very competitive price, send me an email at ...... gowi8@btinternet.com 

and I will forward details by return. 

Good Luck.

FRIDAY EMAIL ....

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16th

Two matches to discuss here and I will have the MLS Cup Playoffs and J-League matches 

( 5 match previews) in the follow up email which will be with you at 16.00 UK time today.

FRANCE : LIGUE 1

LORIENT- LILLE

Hosts are in a bad run, they are without a win in eight and have collected only one point in their last four starts, conceding an eyepopping 16 goals. Lille have a midweek Champions League trip to Belarus to face BATE ahead of them, but given their position in the group and their dismal showings against Bayern, I think that will be given scant consideration and that they will be fully focused on the three points tonight, which could take them up to second ahead of a trip south to play Marseille next week. They are unbeaten in five in the league, winning four and drawing on the road to Bordeaux, who won 4-0 here against Lorient last Sunday, it is very dangerous to compare form against common opponents, as there as so many variables, but it is "out there" now.The visitors have had a full six days to prepare for this, which has been a rare luxury this season and 24 hours longer than Lorient have to recover from the runaround they received. Just two losses for Lille this season, a home defeat to champions elect PSG and away to Rennes, which came just before an important CL match, at a time when they were focused on that competition, now it is all about Ligue 1. They arrive without midfielder Marvin Martin ( 9-0-1) who is suspended. The hosts are without a number of long term missing, plus left winger Maxime Barthelmé (11-1-1),midfielder AlainTraoré (9-4-3) and left back Lucas Mareque (6-0-2), these look key, they are unbeaten in six when Mareque plays, have lost 3 without him, Traoré has scored in each of their three wins, his absence puts a huge amout of pressure on fellow striker Jérémie Aliadière. 1.5 units Lille -0.25 2.03 asian line.

LORIENT: Lecomte, Audard,Pedrinho, Bourillon, Baca, Lautoa, Le Lan, Koné, Romao, Jouffre, Autret, Monnet-Paquet, Reale, Corgnet,Aliadière, Giuly, Sunu, Quercia

LILLE:BALMONT Florent,BASA Marko, BONNART Laurent, BRUNO Gianni, CHEDJOU Aurélien, DEBUCHY Mathieu, DE MELO Tulio, DIGNE Lucas, ELANA Steeve, GUEYE Idrissa, KALOU Salomon, KLONARIDIS Dorian, LANDREAU Mickael, MAVUBA Rio, PAYET Dimitri, PEDRETTI Benoit, ROZEHNAL David, ROUX Nolan,SIDIBE Djibril

REST OF THE EMAIL IS ONLY FOR SUBSCRIBERS...... for details
 contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
 
Good Luck .

TODAY'S EMAIL IN FULL ...... PLAYING AT THE FRIENDS ARENA....

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15th

Amazing day yesterday, someone has put together 12 minutes of Zlatan highlights link, which expain his performance far better than I could.

Gazelec managed a point despite having two players sent off (!), Northern Ireland should have scored four, but made us wait 96 minutes for one , still, at least it came ! 

There is much to like about Gazelec, they have a real go at teams and a shoot on sight policy, even hitting the woodwork late with nine men, when they were still looking for a winner. The playing surface there is terrible (even worse than the one at the Friends Arena !), goodness knows what it will be like by February. LINK  Because ot that and the style of play of the hosts, few visiting teams are going to enjoy trips here and we will definitely be returning to them later in the season.

No selections or previews today, but there will be two emails on Friday, no Ligue 2 this week, so the first at 10.00 UK time, will cover the other Friday matches and also include a look at the MLS Playoff matches taking place over the weekend, the second at 16.00 will focus solely on the Saturday J-League games.

There are some big changes happening over the next six weeks or so, after six and a half years on blogger, GOWI will be moving to it's own domain and that will give us a lot of additional options and will improve the service to subscribers.There should be a soft launch of the new site in a month or so and you should all be able to get an early look at it, before it is officially open. John, who looks after the social media side of things is overseeing all this, not my clumsy keyboard hands and this will give me more time to focus solely on email content.

Talking of emails, next week I am going to be sending two copies of every email, one in the traditional method and at the same time from an email manager, content will be absolutely identical, so you only need to read one, however, if any of you have time later in the week, I would be keen to know if there are any differences in delivery times between the two, I will ask about this towards the end of next week. Again, this should eventually provide an overall improvement in the product and will tie in with a couple of other new and exciting developments which are a little too early to discuss, but which should all be up and active, by the first week in January.

Exciting times, but the content is key and everything we are doing is designed to improve the overall quality of the service.

I know I go on about this, but to get the most from the service you really have to try and read the emails, there is a lot of useful information contained in the previews, the bottom line (red type) is one thing, a couple of dire recent weeks aside, it has been good for the previous seven months, but you miss out on a lot, by focusing solely on that. I talked about the black type "suggestions" last week and then there is the actual content, which, to my mind, is the most valuable of all. A couple of examples, on October 13th, I wrote the following about Bournemouth ahead of the visit from Leyton Orient ....

Oh My ! They said it couldn't happen but it has, Eddie Howe left Championship club Burnley to rejoin the Cherries currently in the League 1 drop zone. Howe left his heart in Dorset and the pull was too great, he is a Dorset lad from a Dorset family , is married to a local girl , only ever really played for Bournemouth ( two games for Portsmouth) and probably spent every month up North regretting his move and now he is going home. He and assistant Jason Tindall will be greeted like Prodigal Son(s), or the launch of the iPhone 5 for younger readers at Dean Court tomorrow and whilst any impact the pair might have will be minimal, the atmosphere inside the stadium will be incredible and will surely lift the team. They have yet to win at home this season, but have scored in all five and managed a draw in four of them, they went on a big run at exactly this stage last season, collecting 30 points from 14 matches from October until early February and a very similar run is far from impossible. They have spent big in 2012, albeit not entirely wisely, funded by their Russian owner, but Howe should get the best out of them and they have been creating chances, they currently lie third in the attempts on goal table and been averaging over three attempts per game more than Orient, who have recovered after a poor start to their own campaign, but have ridden their luck at times. How they beat Brentford last month will remain a mystery and they posted a similarly fortunate win at Walsall 11 days ago, they work hard but are limited and their defence troubles me, they have already lost 18 times in 2012 and I suspect it might be number 19 today. Hosts have had a tough sequence of matches and entertain league leaders Tranmere Rovers next week, before another very difficult road trip to Notts County, the points are easier today and all three would give them and Howe a real platform to build on.

The hosts won that 2-0, but if you look at the lines I have left in black type above , you will see that I was keen on Howe picking his beloved home town club up by the bootlaces and up the table, since then, they have played seven matches, won six, drew the other on the road at Notts County ( who have lost just 1 in 8) and posted a 19-7 goal difference.

I wrote in glowing terms about the offensive options Tony Mowbray had at his disposal at Middlesbrough in late September and they have gone unbeaten through nine matches in October/November , knocking a PL side out of the cup and scoring two or more in six of their eight league starts, moving up from 12th to second in the Championship.

I watched Crystal Palace play Sheffield Wednesday on September 1st and told you that I was "impressed with them" and felt that "they would kick on from there", with "Bolasie and Zaha both running at teams" and Murray back scoring goals.They were in the bottom three then, but are now top of the Championship and unbeaten (9-3-0) since that day.

At times, I get plenty wrong, but it is normally just the timing that is off and I might opt to follow a team a week or two too early, but the basic reasoning is good and there are a LOT of potential winners in the previews between the headline and the red type, the notes are definitely worth reading, especially with the lesser known teams and it is this which separates GOWI from any other service.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

GOWI UPDATE ....

I have previewed five matches on the email service, four of tonight's Ligue 2 matches and tomorrow's AFC Champions League final.  I have posted one of them in the post below and I suspect that John will put up some snippets from the others on our Twitter page either tonight, or definitely tomorrow and/ or a full match preview on the GOWI Facebook page at some stage over the weekend.

There will be two emails on each of Saturday and Sunday and I will be sending at least one to everyone in my database, along with a special offer. If you have written to GOWI before, you are already on the list, if not, then all you need to do is send an email to gowi8@btinternet.com with the subject title GOWI, you do not even have to write a message. How simple is that !

Details of the email servive can be found on the " How Everything Works" page.

Good Luck.

THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE ....

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9th

Next email will be Saturday morning at 10.00 UK time, no J-League matches scheduled.

I am going to start with the Saturday AFC Champions League final, which is a morning kick off for those of us based in Europe. Ulsan Hyundai are hosting the one legged final......

 

MATCH PREVIEW ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS ....contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

FRANCE: LIGUE 1
No weather issues in France tonight and most of the matches look set to be played in pretty good football conditions.

GUINGAMP- TOURS

Tours did us a favour last week, but our reasons for siding with them, had a lot more to do with the Le Mans problems ( more about those later) than any Tours prowess and defensively, the visitors are struggling, especially on the road, where they have already conceded a league high 15 goals. Six of those came in their last two away days, at Laval and Istres, neither are particular known as teams who put others to the sword, Laval could easily have doubled their tally and it is very difficult not to see Giungamp, who have won their last three and who would move into the top three with a win, enjoying themselves offensively tonight. We spoke about the hosts early season and I made quite a big deal about how unlucky they had been and that this was a team much better than results suggested, which has been born out by their rise up the table. Coach Jocelyn Gourvennec has a good mix of youthful talent and experience and his team have goals in them, with only Caen and Monaco scoring more. 

 

However, they have conceded more than any team in the top seven, including ten here on home soil, where they play very openly and games have averaged 3.83 goals per start and there might be some comfort in those stats for Tours, especially given the defensive issues for Guingamp this evening. The hosts are also without right-back Jonathan Martins Pereira (13-0-1), left back Paul Babiloni (7-0-1 only one clean sheet in the six matches he has missed, which came against struggling Sedan) and defensive midfielder Gianelli Imbula (11-0-1), they are very short of options defensively, especially on the left, with Dorian Leveque having missed all season and it is hard to see them keeping a cleansheet. Tours are without suspended striker Ali Gherieni (10-0-1), but scored twice without him last week. Also missing are a host of fringe/ long term injured players, but none which can now be seen as key. Both to score and Guingamp to win, but I think far and away the best value is 1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 1.90 asian line.

Guingamp : Mam. Samassa, Planté - Sankoh, Bellugou, Cerdan, Ma. Camara, Charrier, Mathis, Kerbrat, Giresse, Mandanne, Mu. Yatabaré, Argelier, Atik, R. Alioui, Fauré. 

 

Tours : Leroy, Maubleu - Tritz, Tomas, Schwechlen, Moimbé, Berenguer, Oniangué, Gamiette, Gherieni, Blayac, Bergougnoux, Fontaine, Seguin, Boukaka, Biancardini.

NANTES-CHATEAUROUX

Nantes : Ré. Riou, Zelazny - I. Cissokho, Djilobodji, Cichero, Veigneau, Eudeline, B. Touré, Deaux, Bessat, Veretout, Djordjevic, Madouni, I. Keita, Trébel, Lee. 

Châteauroux : Millieras, Caradec - Nestor, Sambou, Afougou, Neves, Beauvue, Guerriero, De Freitas, Tainmont, Essombé, Jeannot, Foumier, Hautcœur, Orinel, Allart.

ARLES- LAVAL

Arles-Avignon : Butelle, Yattara - Cantini, Abdelhamid, Zarour, Quintin, Ou. N'Diaye, Rocchi, Plessis, Cardy, Savanier, Douniama, Suarez, Soro, Piéroni, Roufosse, Akale

Laval : Balijon, Hautbois - Belaud, Rose, Talmont, Falette, Perrot, Gonçalvès, Ewolo, Gamboa, Do Marcolino, Viale, Betsch, Le Baron, Gimbert, Lebouc.

DIJON - NIMES

Dijon : Reynet, Tchagouni - Bamba, Varrault, 0. Cissé, Souprayen, Paye, Mollet, Bérenguer, Caceres, Guerbert, Tavares, Rémy, Paulle, Malouda, Babit. 

 

Nîmes : Merville, Al-Shaïbani - Sidibé, Poulain, Boche, Parpeix, Bouby, Amewou, Bénezet, Gragnic, Ogounbiyi, Robail, Koné, Haddou, Piocelle, Thibault.

GAZELEC AJACCIO- SEDAN

GFCO Ajaccio : Maury, Rastello - Bocognano, Landre, Romey, Poggi, Y. Touré, Colinet, Laïfa, Davidas, Chevalier, Saadi, Verdier, Filippi, Sinapi, Colloredo, Mandrichi. 

 

Sedan : Perraud, Lembet - K. Boli, Bellaïd, Pogba, Pinteaux, Marcq, Aït Ben Idir, E. Koné, Sliti, Kinkela, Abd. Diaby, Bongongui, Le Bihan, Makhedjouf, Kal. Traoré.

ISTRES- LE MANS

Istres : Petric, Véronèse - Chafik, Chelle, Barillon, D. Moulin, I. Ba, Bru, Fettouhi, De Préville, Akrour, Tardieu, Sainati, Tarasconi, Niangbo, Yahia-Chrif. 

 

Le Mans : Janot, Makaridze - Cuffaut, Ma. Doumbia, Mo. Koné, Buaillon, Ma. Kanté, Zito, F. Thomas, Baby, I. Sylla, Thomert, Kassai, Sanson, Derouard, Belfort.

Good Luck.

Contact:gowi8@btinternet.com