Tuesday, November 27, 2012


Long Term Position Update

I am going to update our overall situation, especially regarding the outstanding long term positions we hold, this week, it is going to be a bit of an epic and I will need two emails to cover everything, but it is worthwhile reading as I believe almost everything I write is, but then, I am biased !

We have had a very good eight months or so on the email service, November has not been kind with two very poor weeks, but they were overdue and still, the entire period has produced a ROI of circa 117% + on red type bets alone, I do not want to get bogged down in these stats, because, as I am tired to saying and you are doubtless sick of hearing, they do not overly matter to me. The black type "suggestions" would have produced even better returns, which are not included and the best value of all, is the actual content.

I write an average of 25-30 previews per week on the email service and in my opinion, some 80% plus of them are very good and most of the rest are OK at worse and almost all will include at least one snippet of useful information, that is probably not freely available elsewhere.

The previews are written to be read, the idea is that you do so and make up your own mind about what, if anything, to bet, there is choice and a degree of substance, most previews are 300-400 words long and the cost of the service is competitive enough that you can be as selective as you wish. There are 10-11 emails most weeks and each costs far less than the Racing Post, which is the main sports betting newspaper in the UK.

This is an important point .... I have a kind of obligation to write about a certain number of matches/events, it is far more of a daily newsletter than a tipping service, there are going to be swings, good and bad, it is like a rollercoaster, we are going to end up in the right place at the finish of the ride, but there will be peaks and troughs along the way, if you decide to bet everything, or all red type selections and not read previews, that is fine, it is your choice, everything is your decision, you will not get as much out of the emails IMO, but it is up to you.

If you do read the emails in full, not only will you get more out of them, but you should quickly be able to tell when I am extra keen on something and this enthusiasm is normally worth following, I have an especially good record with the very long priced picks/suggestions/selections and don't be put off something just because the odds are big, that is a crazy kind of logic. It stands to reason that there will be bets I like much more than others and this is not always indicated by the staking system, which is sometimes restrictive and in the process of being reviewed.

Basically, I write the previews, you make the choice, if you win or lose, you can curse or praise the gambling gods if you wish, but at the end of the day, it is down to you.

I think the service is incredibly good and when the new website starts in early January, it is probably going to get much better, with added options for subscribers.

For the rest of this email(s), I would like to talk about our remaining long term selections, there are not that many, but almost all of our positions are interesting and a couple are incredibly exciting.

Lets start in the Championship, on August 16th I wrote ....


We already have those very early bets ( June 19th) on Watford at big odds 66-1 to win and 14-1 for promotion and they look solid , the Hornets might need time, but the Pozzo family have a blueprint for success and achieved it in double quick time at both Udinese and Granada. They have already begun to ship the players in from the other two clubs, although most are Udinese players anyway and I suspect that this will continue, until they find the right combination/ blend for Watford . Last year Watford finished 11th, just eleven points off the palyoffs, so we are not talking about them needing huge improvement to get involved at the business end. Players like Alex Geijo with 28 goals in 60 Granada starts, Daniel Pudil with Serie A and Champions League experience last season, Almen Abdi ( 33 starts for Udinese last season) etc are going to bring a lot to the Championship and they have been brought in along with some really promising young talent like 19 yo Leo Beleck who scored plenty of goals for the Udinese B team and played 25 matches for AEK in Greece last season. Anyway, the Hornets are now down to 33-1 and 9-1 respectively, we have good value and should get some fun for our money.

I spoke about Cardiff City earlier this week... City have finished top seven in the Championship in each of the last four seasons, losing out in the playoffs in the last three. They have shown terrific bouncebackability each time and are unbeaten on the opening day in each of those campaigns. They have certainly found some form in pre season scoring twelve goals in winning their last four, including a 4-1 thumping of Newcastle United, that was a wonderful performance and the Bluebirds look a much stronger outfit this season, with coach Malky Mackay making seven new signings....Filip Kiss (Slovan Bratislava), Jordan Mutch (Birmingham City), Etien Velikonja (NK Maribor), Kim Bo-Kyung (Cerezo Osaka), Heidar Helguson (Queens Park Rangers), Joe Lewis (Peterborough United) and Craig Bellamy (Liverpool). In Aron Gunnarson they have a young holding midfieder improving with every performance, Peter Whittingham, Mutch,  Bellamy and Bo-Kyung ( who looks an inspired signing) give them a real touch of class, Lewis offers competition for the starting goalkeeping spot and Helguson a real aerial threat, in short, City look the real deal and full of goals, this might well be the season they make it to the promised land of Premier league football. Newcastle boss Alan Pardew said: “They have some very good young players and Bellamy will be a great signing for them. They have a big chance of promotion. The manager is great and I could see them finishing in the top two of the Championship.”

They look far better equipped this year and would be my main pick for the title at circa 12-1 ( 13.0) and if you are on Watford, I would suggest you also take a little on the Bluebirds, as I expect them to go very close.
The earlier notes on Watford were very basic, as we were trying to jump the gun and get on first ...

Sorry, this has to be very quick.

The  Board of Directors, acting on behalf of Watford Football Club, is pleased to confirm that agreement has been reached in principle for the transfer of ownership to the Pozzo family.
Representatives from the family have been in discussions with Watford Football Club and both parties have agreed initial terms.

This is on the official Watford site and has been in the offering for some time, the Pozzo family own Udinese and Granada, they got the Spanish club into the top flight in double quick time and are very shrewd, they sent a lot of promising Udinese players to Spain for long term loans and can be expected to do similar for the Hornets.

Watford finished 11th last year, 11 points off the playoffs and seem sure to go better, with such backing.

They are circa 50-1 to win the Championship and there is even some 66-1 in a place, 12-1 and 14-1 for promotion, none of which is likely to last long, especially if they start to ship players in and those odds are probably too big in any case, so i suggest you take a little.

So, where are we with Cardiff City and Watford ? City are top of the table and are priced as favourites now in most books at a general 3.75.They are 9-0-0 at home and if they had been better able to hold onto a couple of leads on the road, they would be trading at even money now. The Hornets are 11th, ten points off the top, but just two adrift of a playoff spot, they have dropped ten points from winning positions, four of those came against two of the three form teams in the Championship and are worth looking at. Away to Cardiff they led for well over 40 minutes and held out for twenty at 1-1 with nine men, before conceding a last minute winner, they also led for 30m against Middlesbrough, again played a very long time a man short and held out at 1-1 for 30 minutes with ten players. Plenty to take from those, I spoke to someone, a neutral ,who watched the Watford-Leicester City match, the visitors are many peoples idea of the best team in the division, or were until recently and he said that Watford were unplayable for 30-35 minutes. They are a work in progress, it was always going to be like that, we took the huge odds, in case everything clicked and it still might.

Boss Gianfranco Zola said recently his team were "
ahead of schedule in their development" and added "I don't know the capabilities of this team. I don't know exactly where we can get to - whether we can get mid-table or the play-offs or whatever. I'm finding out more and more about my team day by day."If you ask me where we can be at the end of the season, I don't know. I'm sure we can do well."

They are currently 33-1 to win the Championship and circa 10-1 to get promotion, a little higher in a place or two and that second quote looks on the big side. Firstly,they have already played a lot of strong teams on the road in Leeds United, Cardiff City , Bolton Wanderers, Blackburn Rovers and Crystal Palace. Secondly, the players that they have brought in probably still have improvement in them,  currently a dozen are on loan from Udinese or Granada and Zola has rotated his large squad, so might not even know his best eleven yet. . Also, I wonder what could happen with regard to further and possibly even better loans from the parent club, if Watford made further progress through December, you can also actually play additional "loanees" by making existing deals permanent, which would be a little unethical, if you were later to sell them back, but not against the rules as I understand them. I have no reason to think this will happen, just speculating about what is possible, if that EPL carrot was dangling infront of the Pozzo family and the "parent"club were safe and had nothing to play forin Serie A, which looks highly likely to the case very soon.

Leicester City website: Bright in their movement, smart in possession and watchful in defence, Watford looked a well balanced side and in the lively Forestieri, carried a contstant attcking threat.

We can always take a little chance on big prices, we do not have to be right too often , the rewards are good and they are "cheap" bets, if you are not already on, 12.0 for promotion looks ok and should give you some interest in the coming months, anything further that happens loan or transfer wise, can only be a bonus.


Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

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