TUESDAY NOVEMBER 6th
There
is a follow up email at 17.00 today, which is effectively the first
Wednesday email and that will focus mainly on the morning J-League
fixtures, but I might also look at couple of tonight's
Championship fixtures.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
I
am going to start with a quick look at Group C, my first thought is
that I wonder how many people would have been injured in the stampede to
get on Milan at 2.10 + and xxxx at odds against off xxxx xxxx a couple of months ago ?
Malaga
have made the dream start, are yet to concede and one more win,
wherever that may come, will see them progress. Having won 3-0 in
Belgium, I am sure they will see next month's visit from Anderlecht as
their ace in the hole and they might be able to relax a little more this
evening, having started very nervously in their home game with Milan.
The Spanish side have struggled a little since then, drawing with
Espanol and losing at home to Rayo Vallecano on Saturday, they might
have been distracted by this fixture of course, but it was equally
likely that new financial problems at the cash stricken club did not
help matters, the players were not paid again
last month and there was talk locally, that they had lost on "purpose".
Either way, it is far from an ideal build up. Milan have been dire this
season, but something happened at half time in Palermo last week, 2-0
down at the break, they fought back to snatch a point and followed up
with a 5-1 defeat of Chievo, they finally went back to that four man
defence in that and the difference was night and day, easily their best
performance of the season. Bojan Krkic scored his first goal for the
club and this are finally starting to come together for them. A point
could be valuable, especially if Zenit do not win the other group game,
but a win would make things so much easier and I cannot let these odds
pass. Milan had chances in the reverse fixture and might be over the
Zlatan "hangover", three points tonight would get the supporters back on
their side too. 1.25 units Milan -0.5 ball
2.14 asian line.
MILAN: Abbiati, Amelia, Gabriel, Abate, Bonera, De Sciglio, Mexes, Yepes,
Zapata, Ambrosini, Boateng, Constant, De Jong, Emanuelson, Montolivo,
Nocerino, Bojan, El Shaarawy, Pato, Pazzini, Robinho.
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It is hard to make a case for Borussia Dortmund winning
in the Bernabeu, but they are certainly no shrinking violets and anyone
who saw their match at Manchester City knows that only a stunning
display from Joe Hart stopped them from scoring 3-4 goals. I see no real
point in them sitting back and there will surely be goals in this. Real
have yet to keep a cleansheet in three CL starts, conceding two here to
City, just as they did in high scoring wins over Dinamo Zagreb and
Apoel ( oh happy days ! LINK) last season. If it is available to you, a very small bet on
Dortmund to score "over" 1.5 goals at circa 3.40 +, there is some 3.75
around, would give some interest in what seems certain to be a hugely
entertaining match. This is definitely a bet we can win big with in the CL before the end of the
group games, with either Real or Barcelona.
LEAGUE 1 :
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EMAIL #2
Championship and J-League matches in this email, including a bet @ odds of 60-1 +.
BOLTON WANDERERS- LEICESTER CITY
The
job that Dougie Freedman did at Crystal Palace was incredible, not just
on the pitch, but off it too, where he instilled a lot of pride and
discipline into the players and those traits can take both Wanderers and
him, a long way.
The
hosts were really buoyed by the win over highflying Cardiff City on
Saturday, it did come at a cost, with goalscorer David Ngog being red
carded and he will miss out tonight, but to come from behind against the
league leaders on the new manager's home debut was a dream start and
Fredman can take a lot of the credit, with his tactical changes turning
the match on it's head. These are exciting times for Bolton, Freedman
is the real deal and they have the squad to make a big promotion push,
they might only be up to 17th after the win, but they are just five
points off a playoff spot
and 5.50 for promotion might very quickly look like a big price, especially if they follow up tonight.
He
managed to get his number two from Palace, the hugely experienced
Lennie Lawrence to join him and described it as "one of the best
signings Bolton will ever make" , Adding I'm the driver of this ship, I
will drive it through
commitment, effort, desire and honesty. Lennie Lawrence will steer it."
Great comment !
I
doubt that Freedman will make any changes from the starting eleven (
Ngog started on the bench against City), a quick look at that bench
gives you some idea (apart from salary), about why DF moved North,
alongside Ngog, he had another five players with EPL experience,
including Arsenal and England U19 striker Benik Afobe, Jay Spearing who
has played in the CL, Marvin
Sordell England U21 striker and Martin Petrov and international with
300 top flight games in the
EPL, Primera and Bundesliga. In addition, the hugley talented Stuart
Holden is set to resume full training soon, after missing 18 months and
that would be like getting a top quality EPL midfielder in on a free
transfer.
City
are a bit up and down and I have to admit, to not quite knowing where
to rank them at present, they looked very good and then were completely
outplayed in turn, away to Birmingham and Watford
respectively, but didn't win either and
also lost at home to Palace inbetween, with a narrow defeat of Brighton
also shoehorned into the
mix. They get Ritchie De Laet (11-0-0) back from a ban, but lose
another central defender to a red card in Zak Whitbread (5-0-0), RDL
will play on the right and will probably mean Liam Moore again moving
into the middle, something he did for five matches earlier in the
season, but City lost three of those. This is a problem position for
City and they desperately need Sean St Ledger back, they have won six
from six when he plays, anyway, this is something they should have
addressed by now,but they haven't and I expect Wanderers to exploit it.
Freedman (sort of) and Lawrence have already beaten City once and can do
so again.1.75 units Bolton Wanderers level ball 1.84 asian line.
Edit:
After typing this, I saw City signed two youngsters on loan from
Manchester United, including central defender Michael Keane, he could
play tonight, which might help, but I still favour Bolton.
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SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY- BLACKPOOL
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Given my knack of being able to preview games where there always
seems to be a red card, I should point out that tonight's referee Andy D’Urso has sent off three players in his last four games.
J-LEAGUE:
VISSEL KOBE- YOKOHAMA F.MARINOS
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Yokohama have only conceded 15% of their goals in the first 30 minutes of play, but scored 33% and conceded 36% in the last 15.
SAGAN TOSU- JUBILO IWATA
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KASHIWA REYSOL- GAMBA OSAKA
Ahead of their last road game, at Frontale, I spoke about Gamba ......
No real problems for either side today and for me, this is all about motivation. Kawasaki Frontale are nine points clear of the drop zone and that buffer gives them a degree of safety and one more win, whenever it comes, should secure their survival and their need today is nowhere near as great as for Gamba. The visitors have had to sit and brood on a very frustrating 2-1 loss at Sendai for two weeks, where they held out for 76 minutes , that came after they were unbeaten in three before that, including a 5-0 win at Urawa. They have plenty of goals in them and are, incredibly, the top scorers in J-League with 55 goals, just shy of two per game, unfortunately, they have conceded exactly the same number ! Already three points from safety , defeat here could leave Gamba, top three in seven of the last eight seasons, facing the humiliation of relegation squarely in the face and they host the league leaders next week. Easier points on offer today IMO , Gamba have been playing better than Frontale for a couple of months and I expect them to get a hugely valuable win today.
They won that 3-2 and followed up with a 1-1 draw at home to the league leaders, Reysol have a small chance for a top 3 spot and a place in the ACL ( doesn't half the J-League), but will need the win and only the win to keep that dream alive, these sorts of games play into the hands of Gamba, who love a shootout and given their dire need for points, being three from safety, I have to side with them and also goals.
Team news is not worth anything here, both will look for the win, both will score and Gamba's need is great. Shame that all the influential Brazilians in this game on both sides are not Italians, they could arrange this nicely, 3-4 to Gamba, something like that, it could be that anyway, or at least 2-3. Both Leandro's are said to be doubts, Leandro Domingues ( 25-9-8) for the hosts and Leandro Montera da Silva (11-11-1), they are obviously hugely important, but I cannot believe we will not see the latter and maybe the former will do his countrymen a favour and sit this one out ! 1.25 units Gamba Osaka -0.25 ball 2.25 asian line and 0.5 units "over" 4.5 goals @ circa 3.25 +.
Kashiwa are vunerable either side of the break, having conceded 37% of their goals between the 30th-60th minute, only 34% in the final third, which is a very odd split.
Lots of goals as we know when Gamba play, 29 scored and conceded between the 15th and 30th minute and they have conceded 34% in the last 15 minutes in all competitions, which in their case, is a whopping 26 goals !
VEGALTA SENDAI - CEREZO OSAKA
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oshimaSanfreece Hiroshima
Vegalta have scored 72% of goals after the break.
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Good Luck.
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