Tuesday, July 03, 2007



Think it is best to start with what the teams really want from this group. Bolivia can only qualify with a win, so of course will have to push forward, at least at some stage. What about the others ?

The group winner and third placed team ( it is almost certain that the 3rd placed teams in groups A+B will qualify) will be in the top half of the draw, which is the easier section.

The runners up may be faced with the possibility of meeting Argentina, followed by Brazil.

Plenty of combinations, but it is a fair assumption, that it is better to be third, than second in this group. Of couse, the first priority is to qualify.

Peru need a point to progress, the ideal situation (for betting purposes) would be for them to get exactly that, or to lose. Then Venezuela and Uruguay can play out a draw, leaving them 1 &3 in the section. Both would then avoid Argentina's half and the most likely scenario would be that they would meet again in the quarters in 4 days time.

Should Peru win, then Venezuela would be happier with the 3 points, but Uruguay will still be looking for the draw, their goal differential with Peru, looking too hard to overcome.

To cut this very long story short, the draw in the late game will either suit one team which (at least on paper ) looks stronger, or both. If Peru do not win the opener, it becomes a five star bet.

I am going to suggest a small double on the two draws and a large single on the main selection.

2 points double Peru draw- Venezuela draw circa 10.0 + general quotes
5.5 points Venezuela-Uruguay draw 3.15 exchanges.

Good Luck.

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