Ding, ding .... round 13, Rafael Nadal leads the battle 8-4, one of only 5 players with a winning record over the world number one.
Strongly feel that this will go to at least 4 sets. Federer was lucky that this did not go all the way last year and Nadal is a stronger all court player now. These are no longer "true" grass courts and the higher bounce also helps the Spaniard.
I have spent many hours looking at golf and tennis stats this morning, could not really find any real edge in this final, but can at least pass on the following ....
These two have played 16 sets on fast courts, which produced 61 aces, at an average of 3.81 per set. Highest was, as you might expect in the Wimbledon meeting last year (5.25). However, Rafa served up 9 of those and he is way below that average this year, only once going over 6 in his run to the final.
It is fair to assume that with the ace "line" set at 18.5 or 19, it is unlikely to go "over" in 3 sets and if Rafa keeps to his mean of 4 aces, then even a fourth set would be touch and go. If you are adamant that it cannot go to a decider, then you may feel that 2.375 for under 19 aces with Stan James, will provide plenty of interest.
Hope Rafa doesn't tire himself out, he has been seen working out on court number 15, all morning long !
5.5 points Federer NOT to win 3-0 1.714 Pinnacle .... or LAY 3-0 Federer on the exchanges.