Saturday, March 06, 2010

DIVISION 1 .............

This is not the "strong" bet I mentioned yesterday, but still one I am very keen on.

Wycombe Wanderers -Carlisle United

We discussed Wanderers before the Millwall game when they did us a favour by taking all three points from Millwall, they had preceded that with a fine 1-1 draw at strong home side Brentford and followed it with a scoreless home draw with Southampton, where they restricted the free scoring Saints, to very few chances.

However, the wheels of the recovery bus fell off at Stockport last week, when they trailed 4-0 after 60 minutes of dire football, on a pitch which resembled a ploughed field. Gary Waddock made some substitutions and the introduction of the two Matt's, Harrold (fomer Bee and Prince Harry lookalike) and Phillips, certainly jolted them into life. They pulled three goals back and came very close to a fourth on at least one occasion and were left rueing what might have been.Waddock has virtually a full squad to choose from today and certainly has plenty of offensive decisions to make, with both Matt's pushing for starts.

I feel we might see them back to their best returning to Adams Park and in a strange way, there was still much to take from the performance at County, where they had 18 attempts at goal, two thirds of which were on target and did not let their heads drop.

Carlisle make the very long trip south with a degree of mid table safety, they have a Wembley cup final ahead next month, three home games in a row after today and have struggled on the road in recent outings, especially in a 4-1 loss to Hartlepool. Their fans normally travel in big numbers, but with money tight and another two trips to the south of the country, including the cup final, which nobody wants to miss out on, in the next few weeks, they will be picking and choosing which games to attend and only a few hundred will be at Wycombe today. That kind of puts this in perspective, it is just another game for United, for Wanderers, three points are absolutely vital to stay in touch with the clubs outside the drop zone. Actually, with their next two outings, big six pointer's against the teams immediately above them in the table, a win is essential as it would give them a lifeline.

As outlined before the Millwall game, the squad is much changed from pre Christmas and I take them to get the points and continue their "great escape".

Wycombe level ball 1.96 SBO/IBC

Good Luck.


croekk said...

Why do you always hold back your strong plays or delay them for a few days? I don't see the point in that.

The Natural said...

I do not normally publish comments, as too many are spam, but would like to answer your question.

Previously, I was charging for picks, so the reasons for not posting those selections are obvious. Now I just send them to a couple of friends, but is important (to me) that they have the opportunity to place their bets, before I post them on an open forum (the blog).So, often I will wait until after the market has reacted to these bets, to see if there is still value in the selection. Another reason to delay, or not post at all is because I might feel that there is information, or some viewpoint in my preview, that could change the way oddsmakers price up, or quote future games and at the end of the day, I have to give priority, as we all do, to my personal interests.

Good Luck !

The Natural said...

Forgot to add, if you have any other questions relating to this, email me directly and I will respond ....