Friday, July 23, 2010

TGIF ......

I have a couple of strong ideas for the football today, but am unsure at this stage about whether it is possible to post either, or both, on here. The asian markets are very small at the moment and aside from the major leagues and games, I do not think that it is going to get any easier to bet from europe, unless you have an asian based agent and I have my concerns about going down that route again !

The problem is that I have no desire to preview anything when I am struggling to bet myself, that would just be madness. Anyway, we will see how it goes. For the time being, I can share some thoughts on the Tour de France, which will finish in Paris on sunday. Many of you received my email about Mark Cavendish earlier in the tour, so have those notes to refer to and the rest of you can read my previews from last year, which are on this link.

Reading either ,you will get some idea how highly I rate the british sprinter, especially given that I am 7 from 7 in betting him in stages over the last two tours. It is easy to love sportsmen when they rarely ( or preferably never ) let you down, which is very different from being a Brentford supporter, whom I love for a whole bunch of other reasons.

Salies-de-Bearn - Bordeaux

This is always the stage set up for the sprinters, it is the carrot to get them through the mountains. The route into Bordeaux is as flat as a pancake and protected by woodland and vineyards, we are as certain as we can be that it will be a sprint finish. In Revel, Mark Cavendish proved that he can win without the best lead out man in the world Mark Renshaw, when beating off Alessandro Petacchi in the race for second, after Vinokourov had flown.

If Renshaw was riding today, IMO Cavendish would be 1.10 to win, 1.05 if we knew it was 100% a sprint finish. Without the great australian, odds are nearer 1.50 and 1.35, but he is still terrific value at close to evens with several bookmakers and on the exchanges. The great thing is that most bookmakers and Betfair have odds available throughout the stage, during the win in Stage 11, Cavendish was a similar price at the off ( 1.91), yet with 10km to race and a sprint finish guaranteed, he was still available at virtually the same odds and that stage was no where near as certain to be decided over the last 100m as today's.

So you have the option to bet him now or wait and take it with 10-15km to go which is of course the safer option. All I know is that with or without Renshaw and Team HTC-Columbia have others who can do the job, just not quite so good, Cavendish is the fastest human ever to sit on a road bike and no one can live with him over the last 100m, if they deliver him, he will win !

Cavendish to win Stage 18 1.91 exchanges and the odd bookmaker..... 1.80+ is good .

Good Luck.

1 comment:

doelyn said...

Congratz on Cavendish... Best of LucK in all your picks today!!! Thanks...