Sunday, July 01, 2012


We are now down to the last 16 in both main draws at Wimbledon and the Ladies Singles looks like this ....




KIRILENKO 230.0- PENG 300.0



PASZEK 29.0 - VINCI 250.0


I have some strong and maybe surprising ideas for the Championships this week, but will save the first of those for tommorow's email, for now, I just want to take a brief look at how the overall tournament looks.

Alongside each player are their top available outright quotes, that is virtually a 100% book, but for our purposes, is just a guide.

We are on Azarenka at up to 10.0 and I hope that some of you may have paired that with a little of the circa 70.0 highlighted about Radwanska ( see below).The draw has opened up nicely for her and both have a  favourite's chance of making the last four.

Masha still has a very difficult draw, having to face Lisicki and then either Clijsters or Kerber, just to make the semis, I said she was way too short at the offset and have seen little to change my mind, of course, she could win, but that is very different from being even a fair price and her odds from day 1, have been a bit of a joke.

Three Italian women in the last 16, Vinci and Schiavone have been playing here a long time, but neither has ever got past R3 previously, having said that, Vinci is making very few unforced errors ( 8 per match) and Schiavone did not have quite as gruelling a French Open as usual. Giorgi is interesting, she won through qualifying and has yet to drop a set in six matches .

I have spotted something about one of these three that I am pretty excited about and will share it with you in the morning email.

Serena - Kvitova in the quarters would be something to behold...... REST OF THE EMAIL IS RESTRICTED

WIMBLEDON : LADIES SINGLES OUTRIGHT ( sent to subscribers Sunday June 24th)

I am going to ease myself into the Championships and just start with one outright bet.

The draw was made Friday and has set up a really interesting Ladies Singles. French Open champion Maria Sharapova has plenty of potential banana skins in her section, she will probably need to beat Pironkova and Lisicki just to make the quarter final and in the other half of "section 1, are Kerber, Makarova, Clijsters, Jankovic and Zvonareva. Masha was very focused on getting that Roland Garros win on her CV, the only "missing" grand slam and I doubt she is as well prepared for grass as in previous years, anyway, given that and the draw, she is WAAY too short in the betting for my liking.

Section 2 contains a lot of evenly matched players and about as dangerous a floater as you could have in five time champion Venus Williams, I did have a feeling that we might see a big run from Agnieszka Radwanska this year, she is a two time quarter finalist and was also a Junior Champion at Wimbledon and enters these championships with her highest ever world ranking of #3. She is a working man's price of 65.0-70.0 on the exchanges and could go deep but will have to hit the ground running with Venus a potential Round 2 opponent and Hantuchova and newly crowned Unicef Open champion Nadia Petrova also in waiting.

Serena Williams will probably be happy with her place at the top of Section 3 and she could play herself into form, she has a potential semi final with last year's winner Petra Kvitova and although both Williams sisters are a complete law unto themselves and I would never entirely write either of them off, they are staring to look their age ( sorry girls!) in tennis terms, Venus will be 33 next month, Serena 31 shortly after and even if that were not the case, the focus this year for both, appears to be the Olympics, which is all either has really spoken off all season, anyway, like Masha, she is too short for my taste. Kvitova is a fair price IMO at circa 7.0 and if she finds anything close to the level she played at last year, she will go close, but the pressure of being defending champion will be huge and only the Williams sisters have managed to repeat since 1996. Of course, with nine titles between them, they have not given anyone else much of a chance !

The bottom section contains another very dangerous floater in Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she is still only 21, made the Junior final her as a 15yo and the quarters last year, also in the upper half of this section is Marion Bartoli and this pair can give anyone huge problems on this surface. However, at the very bottom of the draw, things look quite good for Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka and she should be able to ease her way into the second week. She has reached the last eight in two of the last three years, losing to the eventual champion both times, Serena in 09 and Kvitova last year. Actually she has lost to the Czech player in each of the last two years, but took the champion, who was in imperious form, to three sets and arrives here this time with the additional confidence of not only being a grand slam winner, but having thrashed Sharapova 3&0 in that final.

Azarenka is 38-5 for the year, but 26-1 on fast courts, Roland Garros was a disappointment to her, but I feel that much of that is down to the fact that now she expects to win, or go very deep in all the majors. She took time out afterwards and went home to Minsk, I would prefer that she had at least played some grass court tennis, but the Belarus superstar knows her body well and has tended to return fresher and ready to do herself justice from these self enforced breaks. She is still prone to losing it sometimes, but these concerns are offset by her outright odds of 9.0 +, which are almost double what I made her , my price being around 5.0 .

She added Amelie Mauresmo to her team as a consultant in April, this was on a week to week basis and whilst I am not certain that they will be in London together, it would seem odd in the extreme to add a Wimbledon champion to your camp through Roland Garros and then let the arrangement drop for the All England Championships. However, even if that was the case, I feel sure that the astute Mauresmo would already have passed on some useful information, if the pair are together, it would be a huge plus, extra bonus would be that Mauresmo is a very calmimg influence too.

Azarenka took Kvitova close last year, despite making a very sluggish start to their semi and in the quarters she gace Paszek a bit of a thumping, she had eight break points against the huge serving champion, which she didn't make the most of and played to a high level right through her six matches, averaging just eight unforced errors per start, I expect her to go well and love the price, she can be vunerable early, but the draw has been kinder to her than most and we have to bet. 1.25 units Victoria Azarenka outright 9.0 +... there is some 9.8 on the exchanges and 10.0 in a place.

Good Luck.

No comments: