WIMBLEDON : ( sent to subscribers SAT 30/06)
JIE ZHENG- SERENA WILLIAMS
VARVARA LEPCHENKO- PETRA KVITOVA
SAM QUERREY-MARIN CILIC
Three matches to discuss fairly briefly.
The Chinese player can play a little on grass and made the semis here in 2008, where she lost to Serena 6-2 7-6. That day Williams served incredible well, 14 aces , 87% of points won on first serve and yet still Zheng found a way to get competitive in the second set and almost took it into a third.
Serena has not played anyone of note so far, but has lost an average of 5.5 games, despite hardly losing a point on serve against Melinda Czink and it is unlikely even she can reach those serving heights again today, especially with the wind getting up. Zheng is battle hardened with this her 11th match on the surface in the last three weeks. I definitely think she can take six games and like her getting a 6.5 game handicap start. Sometimes Williams can get distracted and dispite winning easily, she has looked a little "down" at times during the early rounds, anyway, this one to be closer than expected for me.
I expect the opposite in other Women's singles and for Kvitova to win the battle of the two lefties with a degree of ease.
The pair have met twice already and the defending champion won 1& 2 in Miami and 2&1 at Roland Garros, a surface which doesn't play to her strengths.
I like 1.25 units Querrey to win @ 3.15 + on the exchanges, there is bigger available for lowish liquidity and I am pretty sure he will trade shorter at some stage. How about a small "saver" 0.5 units on Cilic to win 3-2 in sets @ circa 6.0.