Monday, July 30, 2012



Sunday at least ended on a high with the wins for Portuguesa and Cruizero (see below), still not quite sure how Egypt didn't score at least six against New Zealand, they had some 30 attempts on goal, about five of which they performed miracles to miss, as it is very difficult to continually get the ball high or wide of an empty goal from five metres out !

A quiet day today, but I am briefly going to discuss two selections, one football game and an Olympic event, where I think there is a really good price available.

Tomorrow is hugely interesting and providing the odds hold up overnight, I will almost certainly have a maximum two point selection for later in the week then, just the fourth of 2012 ( first three have won @ odds of 2.29, 2.20 and 2.05).


I like the visitors getting a full ball handicap start in this always keenly fought Gothenburg derby, their need is great, sitting as they do at the foot of Allsvenskan, but a point would take them off the bottom and three to within two of the relegation playoff spot. Coach Alexander Axen resigned after the road loss to Malmo and we saw an immediate improvement from them in the return leg of the double header with the league leaders last Monday, they lost 3-2, but led twice and missed a penalty. GAIS are perennial strugglers and usually finish around 10th-11th place, but probably hoped for much more this time round ,after finishing in a giddy 5th spot last season. Key to that huge season, by their normal modest standards were the 24 goals from Mervan Celik and Francisco Wanderson, the pair had contributed just four between them before Celik left last week to join Pescara. Such is the way of things that having not scored in
five, they scored two against the best team in Allsvenskan without their coach and Celik. The visitors have a couple more options tonight, but Jakob Olsson is suspended ( 15 starts -3 goals -1 assist ) and Eric Bassombeng ( 10 starts)  injured. Still no new coaching appointment, but they have experienced duo Kjell Pettersson and Roland Nilsson in temporary charge and the players will certainly perform for them.

Hacken are without Daniel Forsell and Tom Soderberg, the latter might be a big loss from the centre of defence, the hosts have lost three of the four games he has missed this season, conceding nine goals in the process, given that they only allowed 12 goals against in the 12 matches he has started, that might be key.

The hosts need is not so great, but of course they will be up for a derby game, but I have to take a little on GAIS who have not lost in their last three derby games , five if you count the two they also played in pre season. GAIS +1 ball 1.96 aian line.

BRAZIL SERIE A : ( written Sunday)


Hosts are without Alex Silva, Leo and Sandro Silva today, but will have Charles back in the line up and are unbeaten when he has played at least an hour this season. Silva has been out for most of the year and they kept a cleansheet without his fellow central defender Leo last weekend and they have plenty of cover/ alternatives for Silva in the holding role.

Palmeiras are coming off a hugely disappointing home loss to struggling Bahia in midweek and are missing a lot of players today, left sided defender Juninho is suspended and they have lost just one in five when he has played 90 minutes. Also out are seven other players, many have played only minor roles this season, but Valdivia the offensive midfielder has played in both wins and Heleno and Ramos also in the 3-1 defeat of Figuerirense. The other win came against Nautico another very poor traveller and aside from in the cup, the visitors have played poorly against the stronger teams in general this campaign. Cruzeiro should win this, but any value in the odds is marginal, however, in running markets might be interesting, half of the goals Cruizeiro have conceded this season have come in the opening 30 minutes and 66% of goals scored in the last third of games, so it might pay to hold off with any bets until the 20-25 minute mark .


This is a huge match for Portuguesa, they are in the drop zone currently, but the next three starts begining today are very win-able and they will welcome the lower quality of opponent , given that they have faced a host of top clubs recently and put in two solid defensive performances in the last week to draw with Flamengo and Corinthians. Now they have to go for the three points and meet an opponent they know well and one really struggling on the road, these two both came up from B last season, hosts as champions 17 points ahead of Nautico, they have won the last three h2h meetings here scoring ten goals, including four unanswered last year. The visitors are 1-0-5 away from home this campaign and have conceded 16 goals. They arrive without suspended defender Alessandro, who got a red card in midweek, which meant that his team mates also played over 30 minutes with ten men and suffered the humilation of conceding four at home to another struggling team. Nautico have lost two key defensive players Auremir and Derley in the transfer window and are really struggling at the back now, seven allowed in last two, 22 in last ten, We should see goals in this, last three h2h have all gone "over" 3.5, but when the dust has settled , it should result in a home win, with Portuguesa remembering their superiority from last season. 1.25 units Portuguesa -0.75 ball 2.04 asian line. However, the visitors have conceded just one early ( first 15) and Portuguesa not scored any in that same period, so if you are brave and want to wait 10-12 minutes you will proably get a much better price.

Good Luck.


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