Monday, July 16, 2012


Email results last 15 weeks...

330 + events previewed....

270 official red type selections..... Stakes 327 units, Returns 424.44 units, ROI 129.8%, profit 97.44 units, $50 flat stake on each would have won $4,872, at an average of $325 per week.
I have also put up "suggestions" that have won at odds of 25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.
You can view five years of stats on the blog here LINK and on that page there are further links to more detailed country by county and sport by sport breakdowns, back in the day, most of my picks were on the blog, now just a very small sample.
Also NOT included in those figures was a suggestion on Zach Johnson winner of the  John Deere Classic today , this was sent out on Friday @ 28-1 and he was put up as a red type bet this morning at 7.0 + ( see below)
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Matteson -18
Stricker - 15
Johnson -14
Harman -14
Hurley III -13
Senden -13
Henry -13
Five golfers @ -12
Six golfers @ -11

Eighteen golfers within seven strokes of the lead, but I strongly feel it will be very difficult for anyone, but the seven named players to win this on a course where scoring is relatively easy, you are probably going to have to shoot sub 64 to come from out of the pack and win and even that might not be good enough !

I really think that we are down to a three horse race and it is those I wish to concentrate on. Troy Matteson, has been wayward off the tee all week, but the rest of his game has been solid and he has putted really well, he has won two times previously on tour, the Open twice ( !) in 2006 and 2009. This is not the Frys Open of course,but he might argue that he wins every three years and this is his time ! This is his 22nd start of the year, he has missed 11 cuts and is yet to post a top 25 finish ! In fact, he has one top 15 placing in 42 outings and one top five finish since he last won, so this man is "in contention" rusty ! He is ranked 118th for Round 4 scoring this year and 127th in 2011, he last led going into the final round in the Puerto Rico Open early last year, after shooting -16 for his opening three rounds, he was level par on Sunday ( +2 for the final 16 holes) and blew a three stroke overnight lead ! The similarities to today are amazing and a similar outcome must be very likely with two such classy and hungry players breathing down his neck. He could win of course, but at circa 2.40 he would never carry any of my money.

Winner should come from Stricker, who as discussed earlier in the week is chasing his fourth straight win here and he has to be favourite and Zach Johnson, who has hardly put a foot wrong for the last 45 holes and played his best golf of the week yesterday.

On Friday I wrote ....At the John Deere Classic ,Zach Johnson came on very strong over the closing holes to tie with Nick Watney, their three ball was won by Ted Potter Jr, who is clearly still riding the wave of euphoria from last week. Steve Stricker shot -6 and he is clearly going to make  a strong defence of his title and that little piece of history.

We discussed the great course form of both players yesterday, Johnson is currently ranked 2nd on tour this year for R2 scoring, averaging 68.47 for his 15 Friday rounds which is unbelievable consistency. Strcker has been ranked 11-6-12-18 for R2 scoring over the last four seasons and it is very easy to make a case for him being the strongest Friday player on the planet.

Stricker is a skinny looking 5.0/5.10 on the exchanges to win outright, but given his course and R2 record it is hard to see how he could be any bigger and he will go very close. Zach Johnson is a far more appealling 27.0 /28.0 and as big as 29.0 in a couple of places, he is in a tie for 39th, but only three strokes off a tie for third place and I am sure he will trade significantly shorter overnight, if we see the best of him today.

In his post match interview, he said he hit a lot of quality shots and putts and he feels very comfortable on what is his home course, Johnson has been a member here for almost a decade and gets huge support from the galleries. He had a couple of putts lip out on his front nine ( he played the back nine first btw) and can go low today with a better start and little more luck.

Both Stricker and Johnson are very low prices to win any two ball match ups today, but the 27.0 + for Johnson with an eye on trading out is a possible way to get involved, it will be easier to find betting opportunities over the weekend here.

Johnson looked very relaxed in post round interview yesterday ....

THE MODERATOR: Okay, we'll jump right in. Third round, 5 under 66 here at the John Deere Classic. You find yourself in a great position heading into the final round tomorrow. Just a few comments about today's round and then we'll open it up for questions.
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah, today was good. I mean, I think I hit it today as good as I have all week, if not better. Put myself in position to make a lot of birdies.
There was a lot of positives. Couple mishaps, but nothing significant. Good finish, too. That was nice. I mean, obviously a birdie on 17, but two good shots on 18 and a good putt; just didn't go in. A lot of things to build from and I think to carry me into Sunday.
Q. You mentioned the ball striking today was as good as it's been for a while. Maybe back to Colonial?
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah, early on in Colonial.
Q. Not the final round.
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah, certainly early on. A lot of good compressed shots, a lot of good start lines, and never really getting too ahead of myself.
It's really hard to elaborate on that, but I really put the ball in a place where -- with the exception of No. 4 where you just don't make that big a numbers.
Yeah, quality shots. I hit love of fairways. Felt like I hit more fairways today than I have the last couple days. So yeah, misjudged some lines out of the rough, but nothing significant.
Q. 15 straight rounds in the 60s; obviously this is a comfort zone course for you. Somebody is going to have to go pretty low again tomorrow it to win this thing, right?
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah. Well, that's what you anticipate here with these conditions. Minimal winds, pretty warm temperature, ball carries a long ways. You know, I don't really like expectations, but when it comes to elements, you know, that's fine.I just expect myself to go out there and have a good process, have good communication with Mike, and hit quality shots again.

Johnson has finished top two ( one win) in three of his last seven starts and we should see a third today, I really cannot see him out of major contention coming down the home straight.

Betting wise, this is more complicated, if you are already on Johnson at that circa 28-1 , I suggest you back Stricker at 3.50 ( 3.43 Pinnacle ) on the exchanges as a "saver", if you are not involved, I would suggest at least a minimal bet on Johnson to win at circa 7.0 + there is some 7.40 on offer.

Stricker and Johnson are a combined 2.40 to win at current top quotes and they have far more than a 42% chance to win in my book, so backing both is definitely an option too.
 Good Luck.

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