Saturday, July 21, 2012


Part of today's email is reproduced below, the meat in the daily notes sandwich is restricted to subscribers, but there is still some useful information in the content shown. I am biased, but the daily notes are now an amazing product and are invaluable to the regular punter.

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Both Irish bets were winners yesterday ( see below) Bray Wanderers drew 0-0 and whilst we were made to sweat for the third goal in the Shelbourne game, they all count and there were will be games over the season when late goals go against us, so no need to feel guilty about one in our favour ! To be honest, there were quite a few chances in this game and it would have been unjust had the match not gone "over".

Regular readers know how impressed I have been over the years with Mark Cavendish, but yesterday's stage win was the most impressive yet and he traded at an amazing 11.0 in running ...... that was tough to miss ! Team Sky have been totally dominant this year and that is not going to change today in the long time trial, 53 flat kilometres from Bonneval to Chartres against the clock with a slightly uphill finish. Surely we will see another Wiggins-Froome 1-2, but no big odds this time about Bradley who is a best priced 1.40, his team mate is 4.0 and Froome is capable of winning this anyway, but with a two minute advantage ( 2.05), maybe Wiggins can ease off and let Froome claim the spoils.

There are two things about the race, Wiggins might want to show his best today and end any lingering speculation about his worth as overall winner, with many believing Froome the better man.

There has been underlying tension over this and comments from Froome found their way into the French press, but generally, at least to the media, they have been the perfect team players. But this is a real opportunity for Froome to prove that he is the right man for 2013. In the Tour of Spain last year Froome beat Wiggins by 23 seconds in the 47km time trial and he definitely has the potential to win today.

Bonus is that Wiggins might let him, so, for me, the circa 4.0 for Froome to win today's time trial is much the best price on offer .

Onto Football now and lets start in Brazil, we opposed Santos in midweek, taking Botafogo with the handicap start , I wrote .....Hosts are without star player Neymar, Paulo Henrique Ganso  and Rafael , all on Olympic duty, Juan is suspended, Bernardo, Fucile, Leo, Edu Dracena and Galhardo are all injured. So, they are missing five starters including three defensive players and keeper from an already suspect backline, plus a couple of likely replacements and their two big names in Neymar and Ganso.  Santos held out for a 0-0 draw, which was pretty good under the circumstances, they will have Juan back from suspension, but that shaky backline will again be missing several players and the big three are going to be in London for several weeks yet. It will definitely not be so easy for Santos to hold out on the road, especially at strong home side Vasco da Gama, who have won four of their five home starts and who could go top of Serie A with three points this evening. Hosts are also something of a bogey side for the visitors winning the last four h2h meetings in Rio with a 10-1 goal difference. They are buoyed by a terrific midweek away win against Sao Paulo, who had a 100% home record before that match, they have added to their options with a couple of new signings this week and are only missing Rodolfo, Carlos Tenorio and Eduardo Costa, the last two named are fringe players and Rodlfo has missed the last four starts in any case. Vasco really should win this, but the asian quote of -0.75 1.92 is now a little skinny for me, it was ten clicks higher overnight and I would probably have taken that, as it is, I will pass. But if you are following the betting market or this match in running, you might find a better quote, although don't wait too long, as Santos have conceded an incredible 24% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, which is a very high percentage.

MLS up next, I can start with a word of caution about the New York Red Bulls who did us a big favour in midweek, this is their third home start inside six and a half days, New York City has been in the middle of a heatwave and they rather incredibly played at 13.00 in the heat of the day against Chicago on Wednesday, that is a gruelling schedule and apart from a friendly match with Aston Villa in midweek, fast improving Philadelphia Union have only played two home starts since July 4th and not left Philly for 17 days. They should be much the fitter of the two squads, anyway no bet for me, more a word of warning about Red Bulls. Union have a whole host of players facing late tests, but nearly all are expected to make it, Rafa Marquez will again miss out for the hosts, which ( sorry Rafa) is a plus for New York atm ! Quite a bit cooler in NY today, but baring in mind there might be a few tired bodies on the pitch, there could be late action in this one, which is often the case with Philly anyway , they have scored 28% of their goals and conceded an eyepopping 38% in the final 15 minutes of games.

I like the  .....


Good Luck.




We discussed two of these teams last week and reproducing those notes is probably a good place to begin....

Bray Wanderers will have four first teamers missing, defender Dave Webster who missed the trip to Sligo with a knee injury will miss out again, as will Sean Houston who was suspended for the Sligo game but a thigh injury forces him out of this one. Adam Mitchell who was sent off late on last Saturday following a second yellow card is suspended as is Club Captain Danny O'Connor .  The club are desperately trying to get some cover in on loan, the are going to sorely miss the four players, which give them limited options in defence and especially midfield, where Houston and O'Connor are amongst the first names on the team sheet. the team already have a limited amount to play for in the league. It is a very different story for Shelbourne, who have to win if they are to retain any euro hopes for this season, they have scored in their last seven visits here, two or more goals in 7 from 9, three + in four and not lost in nine meetings. Hard not to see goals, with the last 20 h2h meetings home and away averaging 3.5 per game and given the hosts problems at the back. Barry Clancy is suspended for the visitors, but he is very much replaceable, they had a big confidence boosting win over Dundalk last week and I expect them to follow up today, they look good off level ball , but those odds are too short for my taste. Several companies have 2.10 + for Shelbourne to score two or more and I think that is a terrific price and I would love to but that up as my bet, but it is not freely available, so I will have to opt for 1.25 units Shelbourne -0.5 ball 2.30 + , but the 2 goal bet is probably better if you can get that.

Shelbourne won that by the odd goal in five, which was just about perfect for us and the Bray cause ( if indeed there is one at present) was further hindered by the sending off of Kieran Walters, he will be suspended tonight and is a big loss offensively, the attacking midfielder has played an average of 86 minutes per match across all league games and contributed five goals. However, overall, the squad is much stronger with Danny O'Connor and Adam Mitchell back from suspension and Webster and Houston available following injury. They also added to their options with the signings of youngsters Paul Moffatt and Ryan Dooney this week and both played in the friendly with Scunthorpe in midweek, which Bray lost 1-0.

At around the same time Rovers were being held 0-0 at home by Ekranas in the Champions League, that was a disappointing result for the Irish champions and is going to make things very difficult for the trip to Lithuania this coming midweek and they will surely have one eye on that game. Hosts will be without suspended Gary Twigg tonight, he has 15 goals in 18 starts, including one in the reverse fixture (a 2-2 draw ), no other Rovers striker has scored more than two goals and that is Aaron Greene who is also out injured. Key defender Craig Sives picked up a knock in midweek and is a doubt. Hosts are much the stronger team, but have problems and the goals have dried up, just two in four starts and they have a big match in midweek, this will be their 4th start in just 12 days and they look a little vunerable. Wanderers have played only two competitive matches in July and performed well in both, despite being without a host of players in the second, all of whom have now returned. I smell a bit of an upset here. Bray Wanderers +1.25 ball 1.95 + asian line will be my pick.

It is very hard not to see goals in the other match. Shelbourne have scored seven in winning their last two, Drogheda's last ten starts in all competitions have averaged 3.4 goals and they have scored 17 in their last six outings. The visitors have scored in their last five visits here, two or more in four of those games. Both seem far happier on the front foot and the hosts especially will be all out for the three points to stay in touch with the top two.

Home boss Alan Mathews was very unhappy about his teams defensive display at Bray last week and he remains without midfielders Barry Clancy and Glenn Cronin today.

Drogheda United produced arguably their finest performance of the season to overcome a second half sending-off and record a fantastic 2-0 win over Saint Patrick’s Athletic at Richmond Park on Sunday.
Manager Mick Cooke went with a defensively orientated 4-5-1 formation, with Alan Byrne, Philip Hand and Cathal Brady replacing the suspended duo of Stephen Quigley and Eric Foley and his tactics worked a treat. He will have those two back this evening, but Ryan Brennan, sent off at Sty Paddy's will miss out, along with central defender Brian Gannon. I could see this develop into a bit of a shoot out, the reverse fixture ended in a 3-1 win to Drogs, it could easily have been 5-4 and was an incredibly open game, you can watch extended highlights here LINK if you are so inclined. There must have been 40 attempts on goals and a host of defensive howlers, I think the woodwork was hit four times too, Shelbourne had a lot of joy with long throw ins and crosses into the box and with Gannon out at the back, that will surely be something the hosts will be looking to exploit again, hopefully for them, with more end product this time.  1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 1.88 asian line is my pick
Good Luck.

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