Monday, September 24, 2007

Monday ... what's happening and what happened !

Good Morning !

We have a number of football matches scattered across Europe today and I am probably going to cover two of them on the blog . As always that is a little dependent on how the market moves through the day. Will put the first of these online mid/late afternoon.

I would like to talk a little about yesterday's selections, email subscribers had access to previews of 15 matches, across two sports and ten countries. Of which, just five lost and with even a minimal amout of luck, 13/14 could/should have won ! Anybody viewing the Roma, Cagliari, Livorno and Chigaco games, will know what I mean.

However, it is not just the actual selections, but the information contained within, that I feel is so valuable. Take a few minutes and look through the previews, which are posted below, all of this is available for the cost of a daily newspaper and delivered directly to your computer every morning. The cost can be reduced even further, if you take advantage of one of the special offers currently running, just email me here for details.


Klose and Toni are both fit to play today, in the three matches they have started, Bayern have collected maximum points, with a 10-0 goal difference. Promoted hosts have started Bundesliga life well and could even pass their illustrious visitors with a win, that is not going to happen. They are without two starting defenders and there is a huge gulf in class, away win.

6 points Bayern to win 1.50 general OR -1 ball asian line 1.82. WON 4-1 with both Klose and Toni scoring inside the opening 20 minutes


Hosts finished 4th last year and invested in the squad in the summer, they are unbeaten this season with two away victories and two home stalemates, including with the champions PSV. Time to get one for the supporters and they have the right opponent. Twente have won 7 of the last 8 meetings, including the last 4, which came all by 2 or more goals, scoring at least 3 in each. They are the only side capable of challenging the top 4 and the PSV coach was very impressed with them. NEC are in poor form, losing their last 3 without troubling the "scorer".

6.5 points Twente -1 ball 1.78 asian line. WON 3-0


Hosts look the best side in Italy at the moment, I feel the signing of Ludovic Giuly was a masterstroke, he was never given enough game time in Barcelona. Totti is playing at the top of his game and Arsene Wenger has singled them out as potential Champions League winners this season.They have won all 4 starts without conceding.

Juve came down to earth with a 1-0 home loss to Udinese, but had enough chances to win that, however, they look a little slow in key positions and conceded a lot of chances in the previous lucky 3-2 win at Cagliari. Both Camoranesi and Zebina are missing today.

4.5 points Roma -1/2 ball 1.98 asian line. drew 2-2, Roma dominated the game


Island derby. Cagliari have had very much the upper hand in these meetings, but I have no doubt that Palermo are the stronger team. Both are missing key players and this is a game that neither can afford to lose. We can expect a cautious approach from both and a draw looks far and away the most likely outcome. Last season Cagliari lost their league opener, as this and then went on to draw 5 of the next 7, not an easy place to get a win and they rarely lose two in a row, a draw !

4 points draw 3.0 general quote. result 0-1, with Cagliari missing many chances


Nightmare display from Inter in midweek, from which they will want to bounce back as quickly as possible. If they had to choose an away fixture, this would probably be it, Livorno have conceded 10 in 3 starts, look in turmoil and are missing vital midfielder Jose Vidigal. More options for Inter, who can call on the services of 4 players who return from suspension and they will have a far better balance, especially in defence.

6 points Inter -3/4 ball 1.75 asian line. 2-2 ,Inter finished with 10 men , yet enjoyed 65% possession


Both coaches Lee and Jol are under intense pressure and will be forced to seek the 3 points. Spurs are easily the better team, but until King returns to marshall the defence, they will remain vunerable at the back, this is a side that has kept just 3 clean sheets in 25 starts. At the other end of the pitch they have an array of attacking options, maybe too many and against this defence, Bolton will also fancy their chances. Feel that the visitors will probably win, but think the "over" is a standout bet.

5.5 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.70 asian line. half stake loser, 1-1 after 39 minutes


Going for an upset here, visitors are top of the table, but that has been largely down to their home form, where they have a 100% record, they are far less potent on the road. My reports suggest that they have been riding their luck in any case and just scraping wins, do not see them as potential champions and we can expect a dip in results soon. Esbjerg are a strange side and are very leaky at the back, however, they have no problems scoring ( 22 in 9) and are also probably in a false position in the table. They have an amazing record in this fixture (9-1-0 ) with 8 of those wins coming by 2 or more goals. I have to take a chance on them at the big odds on offer.

4.5 points Esbjerg 3.0 general OR +1/4 ball asian line 1.83. won 2-0


I know, I know, Atletico at home are a very risky proposition, but I feel they will kick start their league campaign today. Jose Mourinho is being tipped for this job, which is sure to motivate the home coach this evening. Hugely ambitious club who have to start living up to the potential and hype, after spending 80m euros in the summer. They should have won at Murcia last week, but choose to sit back on their lead, surely they will be more ruthless today, against a well organised Racing side, but one missing several defenders.

4.5 points Atletico -1/2 ball 1.75 asain line. won 4-0


Regular readers will know that I like this Mallorca team, who I feel will challenge for a UEFA Cup spot this season, unlucky not to be unbeaten, they had a good goal disallowed at home to Villarreal last week. They are excellent on the break and can be expected to pick up a lot of away points this season. Hosts are set to struggle this season and are missing the suspended Crusat.

4.5 points Mallorca +1/4 ball 1.89 asian line. half stake winner 1-1 visitors created 20 chances !


Hosts are fighting for their life at the foot of Allsvenskan and goals, just 2 in 6 starts have been a huge problem, they have just one win in 10 and that came against fellow strugglers Brommapojkarna. Kalmar are an enigma, but seem to have recovered from their mid season dip, where they lost consecutive games 5-0, following the sale of key players ! Recording recent wins over Halmstad (5th) and Djurgardens (1st), a win today will take them level at the top, in a very tight division and that is a fantastic incentive.

5 points Kalmar -1/4 ball 2.12 asian line. won 3-1


Big news here, with DC, who have already clinched a playoff spot, missing 3 starting and very key midfielders in Fred, Olsen and Gomez. Hosts are fighting for one of the remaining post season places and every point is absolutely vital. They can take comfort from the h2h stats where they are 4-2-1 and I do not see the more motivated side losing.

5 points Chicago Fire level ball 1.98 asian line. no bet 1-1 Chigago led for 66 minutes


Finally, PSG are still looking for their first home win and have been well supported to get it today, but I do not think it will be quite so straightforward. To my mind these are two of the better Ligue 1 teams and although Bordeaux played in Europe on Thursday, most of the key players started on the bench and were just given a nominal run out, so that should not have any affect at all. Feel that it could be another frustrating day in the capital and these two very tight teams might cancel each other out, a draw.

4 points draw 3.05 general quote. loser result 0-2, but enough to put you off the very well backed home team

5.5 points Kansas -3 points 2.04 Pinnacle KC WON 13-10 PUSH

Vikings very likely to be without their QB. Kansas are boosted by the return of a key defensive starter and the knowledge that star running back Larry Johnson will be able to carry the ball more tonight, after holding out pre season. Their QB is 6-0 as a starter and Chiefs are an amazing 20-4 verses NFC teams. 92 degrees in KC will help the hosts.

5 points Dallas +3 points 2.0 Pinnacle Dallas won 34-10

Just feel that Cowboys, who are my early Superbowl selection, hold too many offensive options against a team with a solid enough defence, but which struggles to score.

5 points New York +3.5 points 1.935 Pinnacle
Giants won 24-17

Giants have been terrible so far, especially on defence, giving up 80 points, however , many of those came late in the game and I feel they will be helped in that aspect, by having an extra 24 hours prep time, than their opponents. They took both games against the Redskins last year and this is their season on the line, certainly the head coaching job !

Back later.

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