RAFAEL NADAL - NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Rafa leads the series 9-3, but the Serbian has a 3-1 advantage on hardcourts, winning the last three, including at Indian Wells this year, without dropping a set. This is played on a Decoturf court, which is said to be the fastest of all the Masters surfaces and it is worthwhile remembering, that Nadal had a losing record in this event, coming into the tournament. Of course, he is playing on another level this year, but this is Djokovic's best surface and it is arguably, Nadal's third best. At the back of Djokovic's mind must be the thought that, if he cannot at least push, the player who will shortly be the world number one, on his favourite surface, where does he go from here. I think that this will be close and see value in backing Novak at a big looking 3.0, at least for minimal stakes.
3.5 points Djokovic to beat Nadal 3.0 Exchanges.
IVO KARLOVIC - ANDY MURRAY
Obviously Karlovic will be suited by the conditions and his defeat of Federer will have done wonders for his confidence. Having said that, the young British player, has winning records over most big servers, Roddick (4-3), Tursunov (5-0 including this week) and indeed today's opponent (2-0). This is hardly surprising, as he has a great defensive game, can feed off their speed and is tactically astute, he is "up there" with the very best in this department. I do feel that he will progress today, but have no use for his odds of sub 1.50. The two previous meetings both went the distance, with four of the six sets going to tie breakers. I am going to take the over, which could even be covered by two tb's and a small bet on Murray to win in three.
3.5 points over 25 games 2.05 Pinnacle Sports.
1.5 points Murray to win 2-1 sets 4.0 Hills/Bet 365 ...... similar or higher should be available later in the day on the exchanges.