SPAIN .... COPA DEL REY

ATHLETIC BILBAO - RACING SANTANDER

I like Bilbao here, the visitors are looking to hold onto a 2-0 lead from the first leg and will no doubt be happy to sit back and try to contain their hosts. They have only one away win, at struggling Deportivo, in 7 starts and would doubtlesssettle for a narrow loss right now.

Athletic produced 17 attempts on goal in the 1-1 draw with Barcelona on sunday evening and only the two big Madrid clubs have won at the San Mames this season, that's 13 home games. They are motivated to give this a real go, have named their strongest available 16, basically the same as faced Barce and given that Racing's ambitions should be limited, this quote looks pretty good.

Santander have won only once in 7 visits here.

6 points Bilbao -1/4 ball 1.93 asian line.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY PLANS ..........

Weather forecast for the next few days is terrible in the UK, not sure how it is going to affect the weekend's football, but things look bad at present. In addition to the heavy rain, there are high winds and snow forecast. Anyway, something to keep in mind.

I have previewed two matches on the email service today and am pretty confident about both, will do my best to post one of them on the blog later this afternoon, so please check back.

Finally a joke, well, I assume that this is French humour, Manchester United defender Patrice Evra has apparently demanded £120,000 per week, to sign a new contract ! Footballers are ( should be) entertainers and I do not have a problem with them earning big money, but come on !

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY'S EMAIL .......

ENGLAND ... PREMIERSHIP
EVERTON - TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

I do not venture into the Premiership too often, but I have been very impressed by Spurs recently and expect them to get a result tonight. A win would set them up nicely for at least a run on a top 6 finish. Juande Ramos has got them so much better organised and next year, they should be challenging for a top 4 place.

Everton are missing the goals of Yakuba, in his absence, they have manged just 3, two of which have come fron defender Lescott. They have just one home win in 4 starts, a run which includes a loss to Division 1 side Oldham. Tonight they must do without the suspended Hibbert and vital Cahill.

5.5 points Tottenham +1/4 ball 1.84 asian line.... NOW 1.78

SPAIN..... COPA DEL REY
MALLORCA - GETAFE

Hosts are very keen on winning the Copa, which they last won in 2003 and also boast two (fairly) recent final appearances. They have named their strongest possible squad this evening .....
Moyà, Lux, Ramis, Ballesteros, Nunes, F.Navarro, Héctor, Pereyra, Basinas, Arango, Jonás, Varela, Ibagaza, Valero, Scaloni, Trejo y Güiza.

The Islanders are very tough to beat on home soil, where they have lost just 4 from 21 starts, winning 13, including the last two against Real and Atletico, they obviously like playing teams from Madrid and will be looking for the hat-trick tonight. They trail 1-0 from the first leg and will be seeking a repeat of the last two h2h matches in Palma, which they won 4-2 and 2-0, both in 2007.

6.5 points Mallorca -1/4 ball 1.79 asian line.... NOW 1.87

NETHERLANDS ... EREDIVISIE
FEYENOORD- AZ ALKMAAR

Hosts need the win to keep their title ambitions alive, 3 points will take them quite a way, as the top two are facing each other this evening and they meet Ajax on sunday.

Feyenoord are very excited by the midfield pairing of van Bronkhorst and new signing Danny Landzaat, who will start together for the first time this evening, apparently they have already shined in training.

AZ are in turmoil, they are still without 6 players and have lost 4 from 5, conceding 16 goals. Even with their great run over recent seasons, they have never done well against Feyenoord, losing on their last 3 visits and in 6 of 7, not much better on home soil either with just 3 wins and 10 losses from 15 matches overall.

6 points Feyenoord -1/2 ball 1.75 general quote..... NOW 1.67

ITALY ... COPPA ITALIA
CATANIA - UDINESE

Apart from Serie A survival, the cup is Catania's only target this season and they are very focused on tonight's game and are looking for a repeat of last month's 2-0 win over Udinese in the league. They have been strong at home all season, where they have lost just once in 9 starts.

Udinese turned the first leg around late in the game and come here with a narrow 3-2 lead. That match aside, they have found goals very hard to come by and have failed to score in 3 from 5 starts, the two games that they scored in, were against the bottom two clubs Empoli and Cagliari.

Only Juve have conceded fewer home goals all season than Catania and Udine look to be up against it this evening.

4.5 points Catania -1/2 ball 2.25 general quote..... WON 2-1

Good Luck.

TUESDAY'S EMAIL .....

I have decided to reproduce today's email in full, it was released mid morning. The newsletter is sent out everyday and covers a wide range of current and future sporting action. Regardless of a single day's results, the more astute amongst you will aprreciate that the service offers fantastic value for money, at a cost of around $3 per day. Further details can be found on http://www.bestbets4free.blogspot.com/ .

TUESDAY JANUARY 29TH

I have a lot to pass on today and might send a second email later, but that will be information only, with no betting selections.

Bet 365 have had a rush of blood to the head and have not reduced the outright odds for Torquay United to win the BSP, which was given as a bet yesterday, despite them winning last night. This is simply wrong, in addition to getting the 3 points, big challengers Stevenage lost another two players to Gillingham yesterday. If these odds are available to you, I suggest getting involved again, in addition to yesterday's wager, the best elsewhere is 2.50.

Yesterday I wrote .....

They have an easy (!) looking run of fixtures, 5 of their next 8 are at home and they meet only one top six side before April 12th, a run of 14 matches and that is at home to Aldershot. In this sequence, they play all of the bottom six and only 3 of the 14, including tonight, are against teams currently in the top ten. I am as sure as I can be, that they will trade much shorter at some stage in the next couple of months and feel that this offers terrific value.

4 points Torquay 2.875 to win the BSP Outright..... BET 365.

ENGLAND
CHAMPIONSHIP

A quick stat for anyone looking at the PNE-WBA match this evening, Preston are unbeaten in a Tuesday night league game at Deepdale in just shy of 7 years, that's a run of 29 games. They definitely step up a gear under the floodlights at home.

HULL CITY - COVENTRY CITY

I like the Tigers here, they have a fully fit squad and have not played for 17 days, which should mean that they are chomping at the bit to get back into action. Last outing was a 3-1 home loss to leaders WBA, which ended a 5 match unbeaten run, no shame in that and they created 14 attempts on goal and enjoyed 61% possession. In their previous league start, they dominated the game at inform Stoke, drawing 1-1 but having 63% of the ball, a big number facing the 4th placed club in the Championship away from home.

Coventry struggled to beat lowly Division 1 side Millwall at the weekend and have conceded two or more goals, in 5 of their last 6 league starts. I do not see them restricting Hull, who have plenty of attacking options to less than that tonight.

6 points Hull -1/4 ball 1.78 asian line..... currently 1.63

SHEFFIELD UNITED - WATFORD

I expect a far better performance from Watford tonight. They rested a handful of players in the cup at the weekend and are putting all their eggs in the promotion basket. They seem far happier away from Vicarage Road and have already won 9 games on their travels.

United beat Manchester City late on Sunday, but worked incredibly hard on a poor pitch, that was only 48 hours ago and they have had 25 hours less recovery time than Watford. Both weekend goalscorers for the Blades are doubtful and this is a game the visitors have to get something from.

6 points Watford level ball 2.04 asian line.... currently 2.13

DIVISION 1
WALSALL - LEYTON ORIENT

I am always surprised that Richard Money the Saddlers coach, is never mentioned when bigger jobs become available. He has done a fantastic job, getting them promotion in his first season and challenging again after a terrible start to life in League 1. His team have lost just once in 21 matches, that coming in a cup tie, when they were a little tired after a tough run of fixtures. During this sequence, they have outplayed and outbattled many of the division's better teams. Ahead of trips to major promotion rivals Swansea and Carlisle in the next two weeks, they will be desperate for maximum points this evening. They have sold promising Daniel Cox to Coventry but this is offset somewhat, by the return of two key players from suspension. I discussed Orient on Friday, when we rightly opposed them and this is a team that has over achieved this season and is now finding it's true (midtable) level.

6 points Walsall -1/2 ball 1.94 asian line.... currently 1.90

DIVISION 2
BRENTFORD - NOTTS COUNTY

The Bees ! This is not the same club that was heading towards the foot of the table two months ago. Since Andy Scott took charge he has changed the whole mood at the club, he has players playing in their correct positions ( sounds simple Terry Butcher !) , with a gameplan (TB !) , unafraid to make mistakes and passing the ball.

They have lost just once in 7 games and in that sole loss, they were well on top of inform Wycombe, before being reduced to 10 men, a decision which turned the game. Scott has added to the squad with 3 loan signings, two of which, Parkes (Watford) and Sankofa (Charlton) are regarded as very good prospects.

The whole club is buzzing for the first time in two years and the squad have just returned from a training camp in Spain, which was a big deal for the players.... it is another life at this level. They are very keen to prove it was money well spent and to continue the run this evening.

County have just a single away win all season and they will do well to add to that tally at Griffin Park.

6 points Brentford -1/2 ball 1.95 asian line.... currently 1.85

DIVISION 1 OUTRIGHT....

I gave you the bet below (in blue) in early August, now Swansea sit at the top of the table, 11 points clear of the field. Like the MK Dons bet recently, when I suggested a hedge of our bets, I feel that is once again, the best option.

We have got a fantastic position with our MK Dons bets, backing them at 9.0 outright and 3.0 for promotion and then laying them to win at 1.40 a season low price.... this is terrific business !

I am pretty confident that Swansea will go on to win the title, their overall remaining fixtures are fairly good. However, we have such a big price and large potential win ... 40 points, it would be criminal not to tie in a profit of some sort.Especially as there are a few tough games in the next couple of weeks, starting at Forest this evening, plus , there is always the chance that Roberto Martinez, their very talented coach, could be tempted away and we could not be sure how that would affect the squad.Therefore, going to suggest a lay of 15 points at cica 1.55, currently 1.53 on the exchanges. Obviously, this is only for readers that have taken the big outright odds. It ties in a minimum 7.5 point profit and only reduces our profit by a maximum 8 points. Taking all the options will leave you in this postion....

Swansea Champions +31.75 pts, promoted +27.5 pts , remain in Division 1 +7.5 pts.

LAY 15 points Swansea to win Division 1 circa 1.55 exchanges.


This brings me to Swansea and I am confident that they will go very close.

They do not need to progress too much, only missing out on the play offs by one spot and three points last season. Roberto Martinez took over in February and was a breath of fresh air, playing decent, entertaining football and winning over the fans big time. He sold Lee Trundle in the summer, but this was a transfer that need to happen and £1m plus for a 31yo, tier 3 player, albeit a very good one, yes please !

They have replaced him with Jason Scotland, 26 goals at St Johnstone last season and Darryl Duffy from Hull City, who has already won the fan's hearts. Martinez looks to have got the mix right, making six overseas captures, including players from Spain and Holland, in addition to some promising young talent from Premiership clubs, he already had some experienced hands at his disposal.

Pre season has gone very well, they beat Levante 2-0 at the Liberty Stadium, with two goals disallowed and the crossbar scared more than once. That was a problem last season, Swansea hitting the woodwork on 33 occasions ! A little more accuracy and they could have gone much closer than 7th, they look a better all round team, this time round.

I have quite a lot of information/ views about teams in this, Division 2 and the Conference, but will keep things, solely to my selections. as I have promised to publish this on the blog and need to hold back some opinions for now.

2.5 points Swansea outright 11.0 general quote .

5 points Swansea promoted 4.0 Bet365/Tote/ Boyle/ Sky .

Good Luck.

MONDAY .......... SCOTTISH CUP

AIRDRIE UNITED - KILMARNOCK

Despite a desperately poor run, spirits remain high at Kilmarnock and they are showing signs, albeit small, of better things to come. They had the best of a recent 1-1 draw with Hearts and only lost to an own goal at Celtic. They are very motivated to get a win of any sort, hoping that this will kick start their season and they will not get a better chance than this evening.

Killie want the money spinning tie with Celtic that victory will bring, but certainly not a replay tonight, as that will be played on Wednesday, in just two days time !

Airdrie looked booked for a play-off spot in Division 2, but in all likelyhood, there will still be two divisions between these two come next season. Hosts have trouble keeping a cleansheet and when they concede one, a second normally follows. Kilmarnock played away at Peterhead, who are on a very similar level to Airdrie, in the League Cup earlier in the season and won 3-0, of course, they were in better form then, but it is the best form line we have and gives an indication of the class difference. I expect a fired up Killie to progress.

5.5 points Kilmarnock -1/2 ball 1.74 asian line.

Good Luck.

FRANCE .... LIGUE 1

LORIENT - BORDEAUX

Can we finally have a title race in France ? It would be great for the whole of French football if we did, but Bordeaux are the only side capable of putting a little pressure on perennial champions Lyon. They currently trail by 3 points and have to look for maximum points this afternoon, especially with Lyon going to St Etienne, who are up to getting a result, on a "going" day.

They are still without Fernando and Jemmali, but turned in a fine second half performance in their absence in midweek, creating many chances and enjoying 57% possession against St Etienne.

No side has more away points than Bordeaux, who are looking for a hat-trick of road wins and their 5th straight victory in total. They have won on their last 3 visits here and not lost to Lorient, who are a mid table side at best, in 8 meetings.

6 points Bordeaux level ball 1.90 asian line.

Good Luck.

DIVISION 2 ....

LINCOLN - DAGENHAM

Huge six pointer at the foot of League 2, something that is certainly not lost on Imps boss Peter Jackson, who described this and the game with Mansfield next midweek, as the biggest back to back matches in Lincoln's recent history. To my mind they should not be in this position and have far more potential than the other teams in the relegation dogfight. This is still the basis of the squad that has made the playoffs in the last two seasons.

Dagenham do not create enough chances and have, on at least three occasions this season, not had a single shot on target. They are still without striker Benson and keeper Roberts, plus two players remain sick with a virus that has been at the club for two weeks +. I expect a comfortable home win.

6 points Lincoln -1/4 ball 1.79 asian line.

Good Luck.

FA CUP ROUND 4

MANSFIELD TOWN- MIDDLESBROUGH

Early kick off, hosts are in terrible shape both on and off the pitch and whilst they will be up for this, they have a far bigger game on Tuesday, if they want to preserve their league status.
Stags are very dependent on the goals of Michael Boulding, who has scored half of all their goals this season,he is sure to be singled out for special attention, they are without two key defenders today.

Surely goal shy Boro will be up to running in a few today, especially Aliadiere, who had a great cup record for Arsenal, against lower league opposition. They are not playing too badly and dominated the 1-1 draw with Blackburn last week, surely they will not be so wasteful today.

6 points Middlesbrough -1.25 goals 1.82 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY PLANS ....

Good Morning !

I am typing very gingerly this morning, having attempted (unsuccessfully) to slice the top of my finger off, with a Global Japanese chef's knife ..... they are sharp (!), I was careless and the combination is dangerous ! Good knives though.

Shame that Ana Ivanovic fell at the last hurdle in Melbourne, but there is no doubt that the best player won the tournament, so no complaints, hopefully, everyone made a little someting out of our selection. Both email selections won yesterday (Barnsley and Northampton), meaning that I remain in good form. Sent out previews of five matches this morning all english fixtures and am planning to cover 2-3 of them on the blog later today, so please check back. First post in about an hour.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY FOOTBALL ....

Nothing on the blog today, I only put two bets on the email service, so they will have to be solely for subscribers.

I have a lot of ideas for tomorrow, so please check back then and fingers crossed for Ivanovic tonight !

Good Luck.

NETHERLANDS... EREDIVISIE

FEYENOORD - TWENTE FC

A win for either team will take them up into 3rd place in the table, they currently lie 5th and 6th respectively.Only PSV have won at Feyenoord this season, but the Rotterdam side have gone off the boil recently,after a fantastic start, collecting only one point from a possible 9 and dropping recent points to strugglers, Venlo and Excelsior. They have terrible defensive problems this evening and will be forced to start with a couple of defenders carrying injuries.This will have visiting striker Blaise N'Kufo, rubbing his hands in anticipation, he is looking to score in his 7th consecutive game and for the 17th time this season.

Twente are on a long unbeaten run and have, infact, only tasted defeat twice this campaign. They do not have the greatest record in Rotterdam, having just the single win in seven visits (all have been "over"), but have won the last two meetings, which both came on home soil, without conceding, including the reverse fixture in November 2-0.

6 points Twente +1/2 ball 1.90 + asian line.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY ...........

Great day for bloggers and subscribers alike yesterday, with Ana Ivanovic securing her place in the Australian Open tennis final, where she will meet Maria Sharapova.

Ivanovic did it the hard way, by losing the opening eight (!) games and showed terrific spirit to come back from that position. She will have to be out of the blocks a bit quicker in the final, I will take a look at that, a little nearer the time, as we are staring at a massive payout on the Serbian.

I also put two football selections on the email (a third was abandoned) and both coasted to very comfortable wins. So we all have something to feel pleased about this morning.

In addition to looking at the tennis , I plan to cover some football on the blog today, so please check back later.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

In the previous post (see below), I have reproduced yesterday's email in full.

Nothing amazing results wise, two winners, one and a half stake losers, and just over 3 points profit. Just wanted to take a look at a day where, at first glance, results look average, but a closer look will show you the quality of the information. Swindon led and missed two fantastic chances to close the win as time ran out and Luton took a lead into the 90th minute, before conceding two, incredibly late, goals.

Of course, it would have been nice if all four bets had won, but in the bigger scheme of things , individual results mean very little, only a fool would fail to see the value of these selections. Luton's odds fell throughout the day and by early evening, were trading at level ball 1.86, a full quarter ball less than given to subscribers, so a profit was there before kick off, for anyone who wanted to take that option.

Do you think that $20 US per week is a lot of money to pay for the email service and such quality information ? Many subscribers have told me that it is too cheap, one or two have pleaded with me to raise the rates, feeling that it should be more exclusive.

I am not going to win all the time, that is impossible, there will be winning and losing periods, you have to take a long term approach to gambling and aim to make consistent profits.

All of you reading the blog, appreciate that I know my stuff, otherwise, you would not be reading this post. In the blog alone, over the last month I have given over 70% winners, PLUS the Ivanovic outright bet, which is detailed below . Any of you that got involved in backing her, should be feeling very happy with themselves this morning, she is in the semi-finals and you are looking at a potential MINIMUM 42 point profit.

The place part of the each way bet, which is 2 points @8.0 looks great, as Ivanovic is now 1.32 to reach the final. The win portion is also in fantastic shape and the 16.0 +, can be hedged if wanted at circa 4.0 !

The ONLY way to be sure of receiving information like this in the future, is to subscribe to the daily newsletter, it is normally delivered to your inbox at around 10am UK time and always before midday. It costs less than $3 US per day and always contains some interesting information, along with the match/competition previews, payment can be made using any bank credit / debit card, ot the Paypal facility, in sterling, dollars or euros, details can be found on http://www.bestbets4free.blogspot.com/ . For a limited time only, payment can also be made via Moneybookers and Western Union, you can email me with any questions regarding these options.

Please be aware that membership at the standard rate is limited and already over 90% fully subscribed.

Posted on 13th January ......

I am taking a low key approach for the first day or two, smell a possible upset in the Men's event, but not sure how to approach this yet. Want to start with a small bet on Ana Ivanovic in the Women's, we have discussed her very professional and focused build up to this season already (see below) and she will be pleased with her start, reaching the semis in Sydney and taking Justin Henin to a third set.

We are already 10 points up ( email service) on the young Serbian and I am certain that she will make us a lot of money this year.

I am happy that she is on the opposite side of the draw to Henin , who still seems to be struggling with an amazing number of double faults and Serena Williams, who loves it in Melbourne. The each way bet looks very good, but if that is not available to you, a straight win bet at circa 16.0 should offer great hedging opportunities, later in the tournament.

2 points each way Ivanovic 15.0 1/2 odds two places Corals etc OR 3 points win 16.0 + Pinnacle /Exchanges.

Written on 28/12/07 (email) ......

At only just 20 years old, she is still growing (1.85m), getting physically stronger and putting in the hours required to progress. Following a short break, she spent several weeks indoor training in London, with the temperature cranked up very high and was putting in three workout sessions on some days. Ivanovic has since moved onto Australia, to fully prepare for the new season and adapt to summer conditions, after two weeks there, she should already be fully acclimatized and ready to make a flying start. We have to keep her on our side, especially early on, when few others will be so well tuned.

The last paragraph was sent to subscribers almost a month ago, they knew, long before most other sports bettors, how well conditioned Ivanovic was.

Good Luck.

YESTERDAY'S EMAIL .....

TUESDAY JANUARY 22ND

I wrote a preview of the postponed Barnet-Swindon game last tuesday and have reproduced it below, all of the comments are still valid, even more so, as since then, Swindon have beaten Nottingham Forest and have signed several players, which was not previously an option, as they had a transfer embargo, so now, there is real competition for places.

ENGLAND
FA CUP REPLAY
BARNET- SWINDON TOWN

This is a big morning in the life of STFC, there is a press conference at 10am to announce the completion of the takeover, which will secure the future of the club. This will be a massive boost to a club with potential, they have a decent group of players and are in good form, unbeaten in 6, including top performances against highflying Walsall and league leaders Swansea, where they played much of the game with 10 men. There is a big incentive for them to go through, as the winners will host either Premiership side Fulham , or Bristol Rovers, in what would be a West Country derby,drawing a huge crowd.

Barnet have failed to kick on from a promising start to the season, they have won just 4 from 16 and lack the resources and support to put in a real challenge. They come here on the back of a fine win at MK Dons, but that owed as much to the home team's inept display, as anything else. I feel that there is a clear class difference between these two and expect Swindon to progress.

5.5 points Swindon -1/4 ball 2.06 asian line.

DIVISION 1
BOURNEMOUTH - LUTON TOWN

I have to oppose Bournemouth, the club is really considering the administration option and taking the 10 point deduction, that will seal their relegation fate. This has clearly got through to the players and they have put in a number of totally inept displays recently and look what they are, the worst club in the division. At present, unless they can sign a keeper today, they will be forced to start an inexperienced 17 year old in goal, who already played a youth game and 20 minutes of a league match, at the weekend, actually within a couple of hours of each other.

Despite all their problems, Luton performed pretty well in the narrow defeat to Leyton Orient and new boss Mick Harford, is determined to take the game to Bournemouth, looking for the win that will take them above Millwall. Remember, they have already been deducted 10 points, so this is really a mid table team at worse, albeit one that has lost a handful of it's best players.

6 points Luton +1/4 ball 1.80 asian line.

HARTLEPOOL - SOUTHEND

OK, one final, final chance for Hartlepool to get back into my good books ! They were dire on Friday in the 2-0 home defeat by Cheltenham and could have been several goals down at the break. Boss Danny Wilson read them the riot act afterwards and the players are aware that many of them are drinking in the last chance saloon. The visitors have some major problems and are struggling to find a striker to lead the line, they also have a big FA Cup 4th round tie on, not Saturday, but Friday night. Add to that, the lengthy journey up to the North East and it is clear that the home team, hold all the advantages, including an extra days recovery time.

5 points Hartlepool -1/4 ball 1.98 asian line.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS
VENUS WILLIAMS - ANA IVANOVIC

We have discussed Ivanovic a lot in the last month and you are all well aware of my thoughts on her and how well she has prepared for this season, hopefully she will start to reap the benefits and a grand slam semi, will be a very nice reward.

Ana has been writing a blog during the tournament and made some observations about Venus last week...
I've never played anyone who covers the court as well as Venus. Her retrieval skills are amazing - shots that against lesser players would go for winners come back with interest. I lost to her at Wimbledon and the US Open last year. She was serving extremely well, which made her very difficult to break. Again, you have to play very consistently to beat her; stay in the rallies as long as possible. The closest I came to beating her was the first time we played, when I was 16. I missed eight set points that day!

Williams is not serving as well here, infact, she has almost as many double faults as aces and has particularly struggled on her second serve. She has yet to meet a top player and her unforced error count has been very poor, with 108 against just 82 winners, verses Ivanovic, stats like that will not be good enough. Venus can always step up a level, but she will have to, otherwise she will be joining Serena in the stands, at the odds available, we have to oppose her.

4.5 points Jankovic 2.56 exchanges.

Good Luck.

FA CUP REPLAY .... BARNET - SWINDON TOWN

I wrote a preview of the postponed Barnet-Swindon game last tuesday for email subscribers and have reproduced it below, all of the comments are still valid, even more so, as since then, Swindon have beaten Nottingham Forest and also signed several players, which was not previously an option, as they had a transfer embargo, so now, there is real competition for places......

This is a big morning in the life of STFC, there is a press conference at 10am to announce the completion of the takeover, which will secure the future of the club. This will be a massive boost to a club with potential, they have a decent group of players and are in good form, unbeaten in 6, including top performances against highflying Walsall and league leaders Swansea, where they played much of the game with 10 men. There is a big incentive for them to go through, as the winners will host either Premiership side Fulham , or Bristol Rovers, in what would be a West Country derby,drawing a huge crowd.

Barnet have failed to kick on from a promising start to the season, they have won just 4 from 16 and lack the resources and support to put in a real challenge. They come here on the back of a fine win at MK Dons, but that owed as much to the home team's inept display, as anything else. I feel that there is a clear class difference between these two and expect Swindon to progress.

5.5 points Swindon -1/4 ball 2.06 asian line.

Good Luck.

DIVISION 2 ......... THIS MATCH IS DEFINITELY ON ...... AT THE MOMENT !

CHESTERFIELD - HEREFORD

This Chesterfield team is a bit of an enigma, they have plenty of talent, but continue to throw in some real defensive howlers and gift the opposition a couple of goals. They have followed 4 wins , with three straight defeats, but their overall performances have been a little better
than that might suggest. They have taken promising Manchester United youngster Michael Barnes on loan for the rest of the season, he is exceptionally quick and looks set to give a few defenders a tough time , over the coming weeks.

Hereford have a cup tie with Cardiff at the weekend, their first appearance in round 4, for 16 years, they are, of course, saying that promotion is their only aim, but surely they will have one eye on the match ahead, that is the glamour tie and this stage of the cup, for lower league players, is still hugely attractive and a chance to capture some national headlines.

I am not sure who is the better of these two teams, but I feel that the hosts will be the more motivated, with two difficult trips to Wycombe and Stockport up next, they really need the points at Saltergate this evening.

6 points Chesterfield level ball 1.82 asian line.

Good Luck.

WEATHER TAKES IT'S TOLL ...........

More rain in the UK today and there are already some precautionary inspections planned for tomorrow.

The whole purpose of these, is that it stops players/supporters from making a needless journey. There was one at Accrington at 10am on saturday, when the pitch was deemed playable, no further rain fell during the day, yet the match was called off at 14.15, just 45 minutes before kick off, when 900 + Brentford supporters had already made the long trip north, how is this possible ?

Everyone who took a look at the pitch, knew that the match had to be called off, everyone that is except the local referee who held the intial inspection and the Accrington officials, who persisted in calling it playable and were seen berating the match official. Wonder if this had anything to do with the travelling support being likely to boost the average attendance by some 40% + and give the home coffers a nice little boost ?

I would not have been too happy making a 400 mile round trip under those circumstances, many of those that travelled, decided to make the most of a bad situation and took in a game anyway, the majority went to Blackburn, where they were put in a corner of the away end, along with the Boro fans, as they were wearing red shirts ! A handful went to watch Preston Grasshoppers - Harrogate, which just goes to prove what a masochistic streak most Brentford supporters have !

Back later.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS ........ UPDATE

We now know the line up for the Women's quarter-finals and organisers and sponsors must be beside themselves with joy. The cream of the WTA is there, alongside the best up and coming talent on tour. If someone had sat down with pen and paper at the start and wrote down their dream last eight, this would pretty much be it,no, it would be it. In draw order it looks like this, with current best outright odds in brackets ....

JUSTINE HENIN (2.77)- MARIA SHARAPOVA (8.13)

JELENA JANKOVIC (37.0) - SERENA WILLIAMS (4.0)

VENUS WILLIAMS (6.0)- ANA IVANOVIC (10.0)

DANIELA HANTUCHOVA (40.0)- AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA (40.0)

Every match up looks better than the next and spectators are in for a treat. Some of you may not know much about Radwanska, but email subscribers know who she is and long time readers of the blog should be well aware of her too, as I wrote a mini profile of the rising Polish star a year ago. Our pre tournament selection Ivanovic, http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2008/01/australian-open-tennis.html has not been extended yet and if you wanted to get out and take a profit on her, that option is available.

Henin, Sharapova and the Williams sisters have won 20 of the last 26 Grand Slam events, with Serena leading the way, she is looking for her 4th Australian Open and her 9th major in total and looks in far better shape, than when coasting home last year. Those GS records show what a daunting task faces Jankovic, she has to beat most likely Serena, Justine and Venus, one after the other ! Anyway, I am certain that we will be returning to this in the next day or so, already seen some juicy looking odds.

Good Luck.

ITALY ... SERIE A

UDINESE - AC MILAN

This is an absolutely vital game in Milan's season. Their only remaining domestic aim is to reach 4th spot in the table and claim one of the Champions League places. They currently sit 13 points behind Fiorentina,who are holding down 4th spot, with 4 matches in hand. A draw will not do them much good and they will surely "go for it" playing a direct rival for a CL position.

The visitors are finally playing with some flair and the goals are starting to flow, especially on the road, where they have won 4 of 7 starts, scoring 18 times, 4 more than their hosts have managed at home, in 8 games.

Milan are likely to field a very adventurous line up, with Ronaldo and Kaka joining new "superstar" Alexandre Pato, in a three pronged attack. They could get a lot of success against the Bianconeri who are missing two key suspended players in Feline and Inler.

6 points Milan -1/2 ball asian line 1.85.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

ENGLAND
CHAMPIONSHIP
WATFORD - CHARLTON ATHLETIC

I hope that Watford can recover from a poor run and get back into the promotion hunt, for the sake of our long term bet, if nothing else. However, at present, they look below the standard required and to my eyes, WBA and Charlton look superior to the rest. Palace have a lot of potential, but are an extremely young team and due a blip soon.

The home side have hardly improved their chances by selling Marlon King to Fulham, they have not won at Vicarage Road since early October and meet a Charlton side close to their best. They trounced Blackpool last week and look to have goals all over the pitch, they rested a handful of players at WBA in a midweek cup tie and were very unfortunate not to win in any case.Few teams would rest players and take the game to the league leaders at the Hawthorns. Iwelumo,Thomas, Semedo, Powell and Fortune, all return to the squad and this team have only lost 3 on the road, where their abundant pace is a huge advantage, all season. I do not see them adding to that tally this evening.

5 points Charlton +1/2 ball 1.70.

PLYMOUTH ARGYLE - SOUTHAMPTON

Something of a fire sale has gone on at Plymouth, with the sales of Hayles, Ebanks-Blake and Goslin, the cream of the Argyle crop. It is hard to see them doing much in the remainder of the season and a mid table finish at best, seems the limit of their ambitions.They have just one win in 5 strats and that was rather fortunate, with a last minute winner against QPR. There home form is not the best, which is strange as clubs have to travel so far, to this most westerly ground, with just 5 wins all season, only Crystal Palace of the top 17 sides in the Championship, have fewer.

Saints are a talented bunch of individuals and still have an eye on the playoffs, defensively they are much stronger now and are finally capable of hanging on to a lead.

5 points Southampton +1/4 ball 1.90 asian line.

DIVISION 1
MANSFIELD TOWN - DARLINGTON

Town have a huge cup tie next week against Middlesbrough, a match that locals are describing as their biggest in the last 20 years ! This is Boro boys !

They would be better concentrating on their precarious league position, but that is easier said than done and no one, will want to miss out on the "big match". Today, they are without two key defenders and two vital strikers are also rated very doubtful. It is hard to see them scoring too many today, they have failed to register any in 3 of their last 6 and meet the division's meanest defence this afternoon.

Darlington have conceded just 15 this season, including 5 in one away game, which means that in the other 11 road matches, 7 of which they won, only 4 were allowed. This big spending club will go third in the table with a win and are desperate to get out of this division.

5 points Darlington -1/4 ball 1.82 asian line.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP
ALDERSHOT- FOREST GREEN ROVERS

The 25/1 pre-season about Aldershot winning the title, which I did suggest was big, is something only available in dreams now and they are looking to protect a 7 point lead at the top of the table, with two "big" clubs breathing down their neck.

I favour them to get the points this afternoon against a FGR side, that has gone off the boil.They have just a single win in six starts, that being one of divisional whipping boys, Droylsden's, two wins this season. Infact,they conceded 7 goals in two games with the basement club in this sequence, 13 in total. In Stuart Fleetwood, they have the country's leading marksman, but he has been the subject of several recent,big money bids from league clubs and would not be human, if he was not more concerned with those.

5 points Aldershot -3/4 ball 2.07 asian line.

FRANCE LIGUE 1
LORIENT - PARIS ST GERMAIN

PSG did us a big favour in midweek and now that Paul le Guen has finally got his team performing at home, I see no let up on the road, where they are as good as anyone. A quick look at the table, will tell you that this is a mid table battle, but these are two teams with vastly different ambitions, for the second half of the season.

Lorient's only aim is survival and are still well aware that they could be dragged into the relegation dogfight. PSG only have eyes upwards and are still looking to claim a european spot, they have a decent run of fixtures ahead and victory today, would really mean that this particular juggernaut was on the move. They will be witout the suspended Mario Yepes for the visit to the Stade du Moustoir, but played 85 minutes and scored 3 goals without reply, after his expulsion in midweek. They already have 7 goals this week and I expect them to add to that tally this evening.

6 points PSG +1/4 ball 1.74 asian line.

Good Luck.

SUPER BRENTFORD, SUPER BEES ..........

ACCRINGTON STANLEY - BRENTFORD FC

Not going to get involved from a betting point of view, I rarely oppose professional teams, after they have suffered very heavy defeats and Accrinton's 8-2 loss at Peterborough in midweek, definitely falls into that category. However, I will update a little news....



The Bees travelled north this morning, so should be nice and fresh for kick off tomorrow, when they are looking for their 5th straight win. Infact, they have won 5 from 7, with the other two results in that sequence, being a draw away at league leaders MK Dons and a loss to Wycombe, where the Bees led and played really well, before being reduced to ten men, which turned the game on it's head. The club is buzzing at the moment and supporters are turning into "believers" once more. New(ish) boss Andy Scott has added new loan signings, Craig Stone from Gillingham, who I know little about and Jordan Parkes, whom Watford hold in very high regard and at just 19, is on the verge of Championship football, to an otherwise unchanged squad. Some real competition for places at Griffin Park right now and in what is a pretty poor division, there is no reason why they cannot continue the improvement.



Good Luck.

LIGUE 2 ....

GUINGAMP - AJACCIO

Sometimes , when looking at a match, everything simply feels right and this is just such a game, doesn't mean that it will win, but I can't help but feel confident.

It is hard to see this turning into a goal fest, Guingamp's home games have produced a ligue low number of goals and Ajaccio's away starts have a similar record, so a good case can be made for "under" and I would not try to put any of you off that bet.

However, I am going for a home win, Ajaccio have been on a good run, but have been riding their luck, in the 0-0 draw with Boulogne last week for example, they conceded an awful lot of goal attempts to their opponents. They are much happier at home and even in a league with few away wins, their total of 6 from the last 30, is way below average.

Guingamp are coming on strong and are unbeaten in 4 and, this is the key to my confidence, they always play much better in the second half of the season, I have come up with amazing stats to back this up. They have a fine home record and have lost just 6 of 39 matches, well below the league average, but if we look at their record in the second half of the last two seasons, they have had an incredible run and are unbeaten in 22 league starts at home. Not sure why this is, their away form normally improves too, just not to the same degree, whatever the reason, we should take advantage of it over the next few weeks and this is a team that I will be following.

6.5 points Guingamp -1/4 ball 1.88 asian line.... now 1.82

Good Luck.

DIVISION 1

HARTLEPOOL UNITED - CHELTENHAM TOWN

A couple of recent home wins and some decent loan signings, have given the visitors a realistic chance of survival this season. Their fate is very dependent on performances at Whaddon Road, where they are tough to beat, on the road, they are 1-1-9 and have managed just 7 goals.

The season has turned into one of disappointment for Hartlepool, after a very promising start , but they remain a classy outfit and this is a pivotal match in their campaign. A win would take them to within 8 points of 6th spot and keep the dream alive, defeat would leave them just 3 points above Town, current in the drop zone, having played a game more. The hosts are too good to get dragged into the relegation dogfight and are due a change of luck.

They have claimed just 3 points from their last 4 starts and could easily have picked up many more, maybe all 12. Last time out at Northampton, they dominated possession (55%) and created 15 attempts on goal, previously, at highflying Carlisle, they had a similar amount of the ball and twice led, before eventually losing. In the last two home starts against top sides Leyton Orient and Leeds, they again took the game to their opponents, had the best of the match and chances, but did not get the run of the ball, performance levels have been very high. There is little wrong with Hartlepool that cannot be put right with a decent win and I feel that will come tomorrow, it it does, we can expect a "run" from Danny Wilson's men. Home win.

6 points Hartlepool -1/2 ball 1.80 general quote.... now 1.72

Good Luck.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS .....WOMEN'S THIRD ROUND

ELENA DEMENTIEVA - SHAHAR PEER

These two have met on three occasions, all were very close and came on different surfaces, the Russian leads the series 2-1 .

However, I feel that the conditions here favour the Israeli, who at 20 years of age, should be coming into her prime. She made significant progress last season, especially here, where she beat Golovin and Kuznetsova, en route to a quarter final with Serena Williams, where she took the eventually champion to 8-6 in a third set decider. Peer was the only top ranked player to push the American in Melbourne last year and will have taken a lot of confidence from that. She is obviously confident on the surface, having also taken the Girl's event here in 2004.

You are never really sure what you are going to get with Dementieva, other than some appalling serving, but she is a fierce competitor and always gives her best. She has a 19-9 record here in the last 7 years, which looks ok, but she has never gone beyond the 4th round , or beaten a player ranked higher than 27 on these courts, Peer is currently 17.

I suspect that the bookies have the wrong favourite and am certain that Peer will trade lower at some stage "in running". having said that, I expect her to win.

5.5 points Peer to beat Dementieva 2.20 Bet 365/ 2.18 Pinnacle .... similar, or bigger odds should be available on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY NEWS ....

PSG obliged yesterday, looks like Paul le Guen has finally got them firing and the home "bogey" seems to be behind them. They are a massive looking 11 points off a Champions League place, but who knows how far they could go, the next two or three games are key and if PSG could win these, they will have Bordeaux and especially Nancy, looking over their shoulders.

I have previewed two matches on the email service today, both are confident selections and I am planning to put one on the blog later today, as long as the odds hold up.

Please check back.

WEDNESDAY .......

FRANCE ... LIGUE CUP
PARIS ST GERMAIN - VALENCIENNES

I have to feel that Paul le Guen's side will be keen to get some silverware on board and this is the best chance they will get this season.They finally got the monkey off their back, with a 3-0 win over Lens at the weekend, their first league win on home soil of the season.On the road, they have been showing Champions League form, so the lack of success on home soil , is hard to explain. Anyway, they will want to get a little run going at the Parc des Princes and to that end, PLG has named his strongest squad, see below, with only Digard, who left the field injured in the first half against Lens, missing.

The visitors are having a fantastic season and are pressing for an unlikely CL spot, but that is almost entirely down to their home form, away, they have a 1-3-6 record and have scored just 5 goals, none in the last 3. Player for player ,I feel that they are clearly inferior to PSG, who are looking for a 4th win in 5 starts and will probably get it.

ALONZO Jérôme
ARMAND Sylvain
ARNAUD Loris
BOURILLON Grégory
CAMARA Zoumana
CEARA Marcos
CHANTOME Clément
CLEMENT Jérémy
DIANE Amara
LANDREAU Mickaël
LUYINDULA Peguy
MENDY Bernard
NGOG David
NGOYI Granddi
PAULETA Pedro
ROTHEN Jérôme
SAKHO Mamadou
YEPES Mario

5 points PSG -1/2 ball 1.98 asian line.

Back Later.

GLENN ROEDER HAS GOT THE CANARIES FLYING ..........

ENGLAND .... FA CUP REPLAY
BURY - NORWICH CITY

I think one of the key elements in finding winners, are individual team's performance levels. Sometimes you can find a team that is playing well and just not getting the run of the ball, they are worth following, especially once the first win comes. On occasion, you find a team in good form, who have been playing better than even those results might suggest, Norwich are such a club. They are unbeaten in 9 and have scored in their last 12 starts, but in recent draws with Charlton and Palace , two top sides that will challenge for a place in the Premiership, City completely outplayed their opponents and got the minimum reward from those games.

Bury's recent form is almost a mirror image, as they are without a win in 9, including some dismal displays, especially in home losses to Wrexham and Dagenham, they have failed to score in 6 of those games. The axe fell yesterday and they dismissed manager Chris Casper and director of football, Keith Alexander, they are without three players, who would all have probably started.

City had 20 attempts on goal in the first game and should not need so many this time round.

5.5 points Norwich -1/2 ball 1.85 general quote... bigger in places.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY UPDATE

Plenty of rain around the UK and several matches have already fallen foul of the weather, including, one of my four email selections for this evening.

I remain in excellent form on the football, over the last three days, I have emailed 13 bets on our main sport, one was void and 9 of the other 12 won. It is my intention to put one of the remaining three matches on the blog shortly.

Details of the email service/newsletter can be found on http://www.bestbets4free.blogspot.com/ .

Back shortly.

FRANCE .... LIGUE 2

STADE BRESTOIS - LE HAVRE

One of the stronger home teams (6-2-1), meet the division's best away side (6-1-2) in an attractive televised monday night fixture. Le Havre are running hot and a win this evening, will take them 8 points clear of the fourth placed club and planning for a season in Ligue 1. As their record suggests, they have been "going for it" on the road, where they have averaged over two goals per start, scoring in all 11 fixtures, also conceding in their last 4. I see no reason for them to suddenly change tactics, that have worked so well and expect them to go looking for goals. The club have received a huge boost in recent days, by re-signing John-Michel Lesage from Auxerre, a proven goal scorer at this level, he played for Le Havre for seven seasons previously.

Brest have conceded in their last 9 matches and scored and conceded in 5 of their last 7. In this game, with the goal line set at "2", I can only go "over".

5.5 points "over" 2 goals 1.87 asian line.

Good Luck.

NFL PLAYOFFS .... DALLAS COWBOYS- NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants have been strong on the road this season, losing just once, at Dallas, interestingly enough. Infact, the Cowboys did the double over them, recording a double digit victory in each game, quarterback Tony Romo had great stats, going 35 for 52 passes, 592 yards and 8 touchdowns, 4 to Terrell Owens. Dallas have lost just three all year, against the unbeaten Patriots, no shame in that and verses motivated Washington and Philly teams, when they had little or nothing to play for and chose to rest players.

Owens and centre Andre Gurode have been nursed a little to get fit for this game, both are very likely to start and are important. They will play I am sure, T.O will be important even if less than 100%, his presence will give space for Jason Witten, often overlooked, to do his thing and for Barber to run the ball. Dallas have too many offensive options for the Giants.

New York have some major doubts in key positions and this looks one road game too far to me.

6 points Dallas Cowboys -7 points circa 1.93 Vegas Line.

Good Luck.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS .....

I am taking a low key approach for the first day or two, smell a possible upset in the Men's event, but not sure how to approach this yet. Want to start with a small bet on Ana Ivanovic in the Women's, we have discussed her very professional and focused build up to this season already (see below) and she will be pleased with her start, reaching the semis in Sydney and taking Justin Henin to a third set. We are already 10 points up ( email service) on the young Serbian and I am certain that she will make us a lot of money this year. I am happy that she is on the opposite side of the draw to Henin , who still seems to be struggling with an amazing number of double faults and Serena Williams, who loves it in Melbourne. The each way bet looks very good, but if that is not available to you, a straight win bet at circa 16.0 should offer great hedging opportunities, later in the tournament.

2 points each way Ivanovic 15.0 1/2 odds two places Corals etc OR 3 points win 16.0 + Pinnacle /Exchanges.

Written on 28/12/07 ......

At only just 20 years old, she is still growing (1.85m), getting physically stronger and putting in the hours required to progress. Following a short break, she spent several weeks indoor training in London, with the temperature cranked up very high and was putting in three workout sessions on some days.

Ivanovic has since moved onto Australia, to fully prepare for the new season and adapt to summer conditions, after two weeks there, she should already be fully acclimatized and ready to make a flying start. We have to keep her on our side, especially early on, when few others will be so well tuned.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY MORNING ....

I have previewed four football matches on the email service today, along with a brief look at the Australian Open tennis and one of tonight's NFL playoff games.

Going to probably cover one of those two events on the blog later today, but none of the football fixtures. However, I will tell you that the heavy rain which forced the postponement of the Rangers Scottish Cup game, is moving down the north west of England, along with high winds and is likely to have a big impact on the matches at Bolton and Hereford. So please take this into account if betting on either of these two games.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY UPDATE ....

Leicester City obliged and that makes 23 winning selections from 28 on the blog, let's hope that Seattle can keep it close tonight and keep the run going.

Brentford won again, that's four in a row and now just 8 points off the playoffs !

On the email service, four of the five afternoon selections won, the 5th took the lead , but could not hold on. The two french matches covered, are both evening kick offs.

Tomorrow looks like fun, a full(ish) round in Serie A and Spain, some VERY interesting games in England, where I have already found some decent looking bets , plus the NFL playoffs and the start of the Australian Open Tennis Championships. I have not finalised my plans yet, but it is highly unlikely that I will post any football (soccer) bets on the blog on sunday, they will be kept to the newsletter/email service, might well cover one of the other two events on here though. So, if you are interested in either of those, make a note to check back.

Email sevice details.

Good Luck.

GREEN BAY PACKERS - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I promised to put this online at 16.00 UK time, so, this will have to be extremly brief, sorry.

Seahawks are a little beat up, but I expect them to keep this close, certainly within 9 points. These two met at Lambeau Field in 2004 in the playoffs and it went into overtime, something similar would not surprise me at all.

Seattle coach Mike Holmgren knows the Green Bay Packer quarterback Brett Favre, almost as well as he knows himself and might be able to find a chink in his armour. Favre's recent playoff record is not very good, he has lost 6 from 8 and thrown an interception in all but one and 14 in total, in his last five !

Visitors have had no running game to speak of all season and GB have not given up a 100 yards on the ground since Week 3. Time for the forgotten men (Alexander ?) to step up for Seattle, take them and the points.

5 points Seattle +9 points 1.83 Vegas line/ Pinnacle.

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP .....

LEICESTER CITY - COVENTRY CITY

Local derby, not exactly sure what the pitch is like, as there are flood warnings across the Midlands, but early reports are ok and a dry, sunny day is expected.

Ian Holloway has been as busy as any in the transfer window and has added 7 players to his squad, including dipping his toe into the Hungarian market, where he had fantastic success at Plymouth. He also took classy Matt Oakley, keeper Alnwick from Spurs and two proven strikers in Hayles and Howard, all of whom are set to make their home debuts today.

Key player, Stephen Clemence, also returns to the side and provides yet more options. Leicester have been unlucky in two New Year away defeats, creating more chances than both QPR and Southampton, but not putting them away, their overall performance levels have improved greatly.

The visitors are without skipper, Michael Doyle, they have a poor record against their local rivals, losing on the last 4 visits and without a win in 8, home or away. Recent league performances have been decidely average and they seem to save their best for the cup.

6 points Leicester City -1/4 ball 1.89 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY PLANS ....

Bristol Rovers coasted home last night, that makes 22 winners from the last 27 blog selections !

I have sent previews of eight weekend matches to email subscribers, seven today, five english and two french and one for a sunday game. Looking to put one of these on the blog today, but cannot promise anything at the moment, but will definitely cover the NFL later this afternoon, with four of the remaining eight teams in action this evening.

Please check back.

FRIDAY MORNING .....

I have not been following the "Next Newcastle Manager" market much, but as I write, Happy Harry Redknapp, is trading at circa 1.44 with Betfair, over 90% of the £2.2 m bet, has been for the Pompey boss. Guess that Redknapp owns enough of the south east and is moving in on the north east property market.

I covered five matches on the email service today, three for the weekend and two additional games from this evening's action. Not going to post anything further on the blog, at least selection wise today, just sticking with the Bristol Rovers bet, given in the post below. I will definitely be blogging tomorrow.

Take a close look at the Rovers post, it will give you an idea of the value of the email service, it was given to subscribers two days ago at 1.96, it is now trading at 1.74, win or lose, that is great value. Some 90% of my selections trade at lower odds and getting the best of the quotes makes a massive difference to your bottom line, over the course of a week or two, let alone a whole season. Details can be found here.

Good Luck.

EARLY BET FOR FRIDAY ......... DIVISION 1

TRANMERE ROVERS-BRISTOL ROVERS

Tranmere have already played on Saturday and last night (tuesday), so this will be their third game in six days, which, coming after the busy Christmas/New Year period, with many game played on heavy pitches, is simply too much. Add to the mix, the fact that they have injury concerns and are conceding far too freely. In the 3-0 defeat at Orient , they also played 40 minutes with 10 men and two players started, clearly not 100% fit. A long journey back to Merseyside, late at night, in terrible driving conditions, will not have helped much either.

Paul Trollope, on the other hand, has his team in good form, well rested, in a focused frame of mind and with a lot of competition for places. I can only go one way and am happy with the odds.

6.5 points Bristol Rovers +1/2 ball 1.96 asian line.... now 1.89.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY PLANS ....

Wycombe won last night, to get the blog back on track, not that we were seriously derailed, as, that makes 21 of the last 26 that have won !

I have written previews of 5 events on the email service today, one tennis match and four football games, one, an early and strong selection for the weekend. Going to try and post something from this selection on here later today, but am not certain yet.

The only way to be sure of getting to read all the GOWI output, is by subscribing to the daily newsletter, details can be found on this link.

Good Luck

DIVISION 2 ..........

MANSFIELD TOWN- WYCOMBE WANDERERS

Town would have had at least a mini celebration after their cup win at Brighton at the weekend and then , probably got carried away with the excitement of the 4th round draw yesterday, when they were rewarded with a home tie with Middlesbrough. They might come down to earth with a bump this evening, they are in poor league form, have won just once in 8 starts, losing six and failing to score in 5.

Mansfield are further hit by injury and suspension, with at least 4 players out, including top scored Michael Boulding, who has notched 12 of their 24 goals this season.

They meet a Wycombe team finally hitting their stride and fully rested after a free weekend, with 4 wins in a 5 match, unbeaten run, including beating Brentford, the Bees only loss in 6 starts, thought that I would get that one in .Wanderers create a lot of chances and have been short, recently, of a proven goals scorer, they have taken Leon Knight from MK Dons this week, he is good at this level .... when he wants to be ! No doubt that he will start very well and all will be fine and dandy for a few weeks, after that, who knows ! However, for now, we are only interested in today , he is lightning quick and if they feed him, he will score. Away win.

6 points Wycombe level ball 1.82 asian line.

Good Luck.

LONG TERM MARKET UPDATE .....

On August 11th 2007, I wrote my preview for the lower league, ante post market in England, there is a link to read the full article at the foot of this post. My only selection in Division 2 was Paul Ince's MK Dons and I suggested .......

2 points win Milton Keynes Dons 9.0 general
5 points promotion 3.0 Tote/ Stan James/Bet 365.

They now sit at the top of the table, some 9 points clear, but having played a game more than their nearest rivals. The purpose for this post, is not to tell you how clever I am, that should be obvious by now, but to point out that they can be laid at 1.40 on the exchanges, should you choose to take a profit, or at least cover your stake.

Whether you should do so, is open to debate, they have played a series of very tough games and now face an easy looking sequence, with 3 of their next 4 at home. Maybe you want to keep a watchful eye on the situation, just remember that a lot can go wrong and very quickly in football, what if they lose their management team ? The potential win for the us is 28 points, but if they collapse.... nothing, infact, we could lose 7 points. It only "costs" 2.8 units to cover our stake and even securing a double digit profit regardless of what happens, by laying them for 20 points, only reduces our profit, if they are champions, by 8 points.

I am not the greatest fan of hedging, my feeling is that you should always do it, or not at all, but it would be remiss of me, not to at least, mention it. It is also a very different situation when you can lay something at big odds on, that you have backed at massive prices. A 20 points lay, means that you win 13 units if they are not promoted, 28 if they go up , but not as champions and 18 if they win the league. Anyway, that particular ball is now firmly in your court.

I will take a look at some of our other, long term positions shortly.

http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2007/08/lower-league-previews.html

Good Luck.

MONDAY ............. ALL GOOD THINGS COME TO AN END

The winning run came to an end yesterday, after 13 straight winners on the blog, Betis and Tampa Bay both lost and put in disappointing performances, which bothers me more than the bare result. Eli Manning finally got the monkey off his back, will no doubt be feeling happy with himself this morning and will be a better player for it..... doesn't help me though !

Still, 20 of the last 25 have won, so I cannot beat myself up too much. Looking ahead, this week promises much, especially tomorrow, when we have a lot of interesting matches, including the next round of the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, which I have long been waiting for and where, we have enjoyed great success this season.

Today, I wrote detailed previews of two matches on the email service, both of which are being shown live on television. How football has changed, to see not one , but two matches live on a quiet Monday, when the top 4 english divisions are not playing, would have been simply unthinkable, just a couple of years ago.

I enjoyed the FA Cup third round, this is still the premier domestic cup competition in the world and you can see how much it means to the players and especially supporters, of the lower league clubs. Sorry to bring everything back to money, but it makes the world go around, some league clubs are operating on a £1m playing budget and a potential £300k windfall from one third round cup tie is massive, you can imagine what it can do for a non league club !

Wish that all clubs would be forced to openly announce their playing budget's at the start of each season, it would be a fantastically useful tool, especially if they had to keep to it ! Never going to happen though and it would only encourage more shenanigans. In Division 2 , I understand that MK Dons budget is almost 3 times that of my beloved Bees, a quick look at the league table, will tell you that money talks, at all levels of the game.

Good Luck.

NFL WILDCARD GAME ............

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - NEW YORK GIANTS

I like the Bucs, the Giants struggle to handle quarterback Jeff Garcia's quick release and he has twice knocked them out of the playoffs, including once, when he single handedly dragged the 49ers by the scruff of the neck across the winning line, in what might have been, no time to check, the biggest comeback in playoff history. He also did it last year and is 4-1 lifetime against NYG. His receivers Galloway and Hilliard are coming off big season's and can get a lot of joy against this Giants secondary.

For New York, qb Eli Manning is talented, but throws almost as many interceptions as touchdowns (20-23) and might get nervous infront of this big and noisy crowd, no, he will get nervous. They have key injuries to centre Sean O'Hara and cornerback Sam Madison, neither has trained at all this week, if they do not start,as seems likely at present, then this is a no brainer for me. If they do, they are probably not 100% anyway.

6.5 points Tampa Bay money line 1.71 exchanges.

Good Luck.

LA LIGA ...........

SEVILLE- BETIS

This is not for the squeamish ! There is rarely any quarter given in this most keenly fought and passionate of local derbies and in fifteen meetings, 8 of which have ended all square, no team has ever won by more than a single goal. To my eyes, the home side, who conceded 3 in midweek at home to 3rd level club Denia, are incredibly short priced to win this evening. Since taking over at Betis, Paco Chaparro has overseen a 5 match unbeaten run, with some excellent wins against tough opposition and has restored the confidence of his playing staff. Getting a full ball start, they look an excellent bet.

6 points Betis +1 ball 1.90 asian line..... NOW 1.84.

Good Luck.

JOURNEYMAN STRIKERS .... MORE CLUBS THAN TIGER WOODS

I got distracted by an article in the Sunday Times ,which focused on Burnley's Ade Akinbiyi, who has played for 11 clubs, been transfered 12 times for a total of £15m + and no doubt made a fortune for his agent.

They touched on the cult of the "journeyman striker" , the players that are always in demand, seem to score goals wherever they go, but never stay anywhere too long. Akinbiyi is a prime example I guess, but his transfer fees are far in excess of the norm for this type of player.

Dean Windass is often cited as such , he has kept up a goal every 3 game average, in almost 700 matches, including two yesterday for Hull City. Still going strong at 38, he is something of an amateur in this "club", having only played for nine teams, his eleven transfers totalled under £3m.

Step forward the real leaders of this band of brothers, firstly, Steve ( have boots will travel) Claridge played for 20 clubs, across 24 seasons in the game and might not yet be finished, if someone would only call ! Next up, is the baby of the bunch, Trevor Benjamin, also on the mark, for Hereford yesterday, he might yet turn out to "the daddy", Still only 28 he has played for an amazing 16 clubs, made all the more remarkable as he spent 5 years at each of Cambridge and Leicester. He doesn't just stick to one national side either, having played for England U21 and Jamaica !

Never mind 5 volumes of Wayne Rooney's autobiography, Benjamin's would make a far better read, but then he probably has another decade and goodness knows how many more clubs to play for, before putting pen to paper on anything other than a new contract !

Back later.

THIRTEEN ............ UNLUCKY FOR THE BOOKMAKERS !

Stevenage and Jacksonville both won yesterday, making 13 consecutive winning blog selections since the NFL bet on the New York Giants on 23rd December.


Some fantastic sporting action in the FA Cup and the Wildcard playoff games, but there can be little doubt that the highlight of the day was Brentford's win at Shrewsbury . The Bees are on the move, just one loss in 6 , including three straight wins, after what has gone before, that leaves a warm glow on a cold winter morning !


I am not sure what my plans are for today, still working on the newsletter at the moment, the only way to be certain of seeing all my output, is to subscribe to the email service. A $20 unit stake on all blog selections alone over the holiday period, would have made you well over $1700 profit, one quarter of which, would pay for an email subscription for six months, you do the sums. Details can be found on www.bestbets4free.blogspot.com .

Good Luck.

NFL WILDCARD GAME ............

PITTSBURGH STEELERS- JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jacksonville look to have the Steelers number , they have beaten them in each of the last 3 seasons, twice at Heinz Field, including just three weeks ago.

Jax ran for 224 yards then and Pittsburgh simply could not stop them, a beat up offensive line tonight is very unlikely to fare any better. Visitors are further boosted by the hosts being without Willie Parker, who had 100 yards of rushing himself that day. Jaguars have won 7 in a row against the AFC North and can make it 8 . Steelers confidence is very low and I just do not see how they can halt the Jaguar Juggernaut.

6.5 points Jacksonville circa 1.70 moneyline.

Good Luck.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP ....

STAFFORD RANGERS- STEVENAGE BOROUGH

Going to stick with Stevenage, who I discussed in detail and selected for the 5-1 win at Altrincham. They meet a side with similar problems today. Hosts have a terrible 1-7-17 record, are 10 points adrift of safety, having played a game more, they have conceded 20 in 10 starts and their only clean sheet in living memory, came against fellow strugglers Northwich.

Boro are desperate to keep leaders Aldershot in sight, ahead of a planned late season charge, they have already won 7 from 11 away, scoring 22 times. Their respective records point to Stevenage scoring twice (at least), as does the Rangers home record, they have managed only 8 goals and 4 points in 12 starts, conceding 24, again, an average of exactly two per game.

Visitors won the reverse fixture 3-1 and did the double last season with a 9-1 goal difference.
Peter Taylor has this side on the move again and they could very well close in on injury hit Aldershot this afternoon.

6.5 points Stevenage -3/4 ball 1.73 asian line.

Good Luck.