Friday, January 18, 2008

LIGUE 2 ....


Sometimes , when looking at a match, everything simply feels right and this is just such a game, doesn't mean that it will win, but I can't help but feel confident.

It is hard to see this turning into a goal fest, Guingamp's home games have produced a ligue low number of goals and Ajaccio's away starts have a similar record, so a good case can be made for "under" and I would not try to put any of you off that bet.

However, I am going for a home win, Ajaccio have been on a good run, but have been riding their luck, in the 0-0 draw with Boulogne last week for example, they conceded an awful lot of goal attempts to their opponents. They are much happier at home and even in a league with few away wins, their total of 6 from the last 30, is way below average.

Guingamp are coming on strong and are unbeaten in 4 and, this is the key to my confidence, they always play much better in the second half of the season, I have come up with amazing stats to back this up. They have a fine home record and have lost just 6 of 39 matches, well below the league average, but if we look at their record in the second half of the last two seasons, they have had an incredible run and are unbeaten in 22 league starts at home. Not sure why this is, their away form normally improves too, just not to the same degree, whatever the reason, we should take advantage of it over the next few weeks and this is a team that I will be following.

6.5 points Guingamp -1/4 ball 1.88 asian line.... now 1.82

Good Luck.

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