Tuesday, January 29, 2008


I have decided to reproduce today's email in full, it was released mid morning. The newsletter is sent out everyday and covers a wide range of current and future sporting action. Regardless of a single day's results, the more astute amongst you will aprreciate that the service offers fantastic value for money, at a cost of around $3 per day. Further details can be found on http://www.bestbets4free.blogspot.com/ .


I have a lot to pass on today and might send a second email later, but that will be information only, with no betting selections.

Bet 365 have had a rush of blood to the head and have not reduced the outright odds for Torquay United to win the BSP, which was given as a bet yesterday, despite them winning last night. This is simply wrong, in addition to getting the 3 points, big challengers Stevenage lost another two players to Gillingham yesterday. If these odds are available to you, I suggest getting involved again, in addition to yesterday's wager, the best elsewhere is 2.50.

Yesterday I wrote .....
They have an easy (!) looking run of fixtures, 5 of their next 8 are at home and they meet only one top six side before April 12th, a run of 14 matches and that is at home to Aldershot. In this sequence, they play all of the bottom six and only 3 of the 14, including tonight, are against teams currently in the top ten. I am as sure as I can be, that they will trade much shorter at some stage in the next couple of months and feel that this offers terrific value.

4 points Torquay 2.875 to win the BSP Outright..... BET 365.


A quick stat for anyone looking at the PNE-WBA match this evening, Preston are unbeaten in a Tuesday night league game at Deepdale in just shy of 7 years, that's a run of 29 games. They definitely step up a gear under the floodlights at home.


I like the Tigers here, they have a fully fit squad and have not played for 17 days, which should mean that they are chomping at the bit to get back into action. Last outing was a 3-1 home loss to leaders WBA, which ended a 5 match unbeaten run, no shame in that and they created 14 attempts on goal and enjoyed 61% possession. In their previous league start, they dominated the game at inform Stoke, drawing 1-1 but having 63% of the ball, a big number facing the 4th placed club in the Championship away from home.

Coventry struggled to beat lowly Division 1 side Millwall at the weekend and have conceded two or more goals, in 5 of their last 6 league starts. I do not see them restricting Hull, who have plenty of attacking options to less than that tonight.

6 points Hull -1/4 ball 1.78 asian line..... currently 1.63


I expect a far better performance from Watford tonight. They rested a handful of players in the cup at the weekend and are putting all their eggs in the promotion basket. They seem far happier away from Vicarage Road and have already won 9 games on their travels.

United beat Manchester City late on Sunday, but worked incredibly hard on a poor pitch, that was only 48 hours ago and they have had 25 hours less recovery time than Watford. Both weekend goalscorers for the Blades are doubtful and this is a game the visitors have to get something from.

6 points Watford level ball 2.04 asian line.... currently 2.13


I am always surprised that Richard Money the Saddlers coach, is never mentioned when bigger jobs become available. He has done a fantastic job, getting them promotion in his first season and challenging again after a terrible start to life in League 1. His team have lost just once in 21 matches, that coming in a cup tie, when they were a little tired after a tough run of fixtures. During this sequence, they have outplayed and outbattled many of the division's better teams. Ahead of trips to major promotion rivals Swansea and Carlisle in the next two weeks, they will be desperate for maximum points this evening. They have sold promising Daniel Cox to Coventry but this is offset somewhat, by the return of two key players from suspension. I discussed Orient on Friday, when we rightly opposed them and this is a team that has over achieved this season and is now finding it's true (midtable) level.

6 points Walsall -1/2 ball 1.94 asian line.... currently 1.90


The Bees ! This is not the same club that was heading towards the foot of the table two months ago. Since Andy Scott took charge he has changed the whole mood at the club, he has players playing in their correct positions ( sounds simple Terry Butcher !) , with a gameplan (TB !) , unafraid to make mistakes and passing the ball.

They have lost just once in 7 games and in that sole loss, they were well on top of inform Wycombe, before being reduced to 10 men, a decision which turned the game. Scott has added to the squad with 3 loan signings, two of which, Parkes (Watford) and Sankofa (Charlton) are regarded as very good prospects.

The whole club is buzzing for the first time in two years and the squad have just returned from a training camp in Spain, which was a big deal for the players.... it is another life at this level. They are very keen to prove it was money well spent and to continue the run this evening.

County have just a single away win all season and they will do well to add to that tally at Griffin Park.

6 points Brentford -1/2 ball 1.95 asian line.... currently 1.85


I gave you the bet below (in blue) in early August, now Swansea sit at the top of the table, 11 points clear of the field. Like the MK Dons bet recently, when I suggested a hedge of our bets, I feel that is once again, the best option.

We have got a fantastic position with our MK Dons bets, backing them at 9.0 outright and 3.0 for promotion and then laying them to win at 1.40 a season low price.... this is terrific business !

I am pretty confident that Swansea will go on to win the title, their overall remaining fixtures are fairly good. However, we have such a big price and large potential win ... 40 points, it would be criminal not to tie in a profit of some sort.Especially as there are a few tough games in the next couple of weeks, starting at Forest this evening, plus , there is always the chance that Roberto Martinez, their very talented coach, could be tempted away and we could not be sure how that would affect the squad.Therefore, going to suggest a lay of 15 points at cica 1.55, currently 1.53 on the exchanges. Obviously, this is only for readers that have taken the big outright odds. It ties in a minimum 7.5 point profit and only reduces our profit by a maximum 8 points. Taking all the options will leave you in this postion....

Swansea Champions +31.75 pts, promoted +27.5 pts , remain in Division 1 +7.5 pts.

LAY 15 points Swansea to win Division 1 circa 1.55 exchanges.

This brings me to Swansea and I am confident that they will go very close.

They do not need to progress too much, only missing out on the play offs by one spot and three points last season. Roberto Martinez took over in February and was a breath of fresh air, playing decent, entertaining football and winning over the fans big time. He sold Lee Trundle in the summer, but this was a transfer that need to happen and £1m plus for a 31yo, tier 3 player, albeit a very good one, yes please !

They have replaced him with Jason Scotland, 26 goals at St Johnstone last season and Darryl Duffy from Hull City, who has already won the fan's hearts. Martinez looks to have got the mix right, making six overseas captures, including players from Spain and Holland, in addition to some promising young talent from Premiership clubs, he already had some experienced hands at his disposal.

Pre season has gone very well, they beat Levante 2-0 at the Liberty Stadium, with two goals disallowed and the crossbar scared more than once. That was a problem last season, Swansea hitting the woodwork on 33 occasions ! A little more accuracy and they could have gone much closer than 7th, they look a better all round team, this time round.

I have quite a lot of information/ views about teams in this, Division 2 and the Conference, but will keep things, solely to my selections. as I have promised to publish this on the blog and need to hold back some opinions for now.

2.5 points Swansea outright 11.0 general quote .
5 points Swansea promoted 4.0 Bet365/Tote/ Boyle/ Sky .

Good Luck.

No comments: