Monday, January 07, 2008


On August 11th 2007, I wrote my preview for the lower league, ante post market in England, there is a link to read the full article at the foot of this post. My only selection in Division 2 was Paul Ince's MK Dons and I suggested .......

2 points win Milton Keynes Dons 9.0 general
5 points promotion 3.0 Tote/ Stan James/Bet 365.

They now sit at the top of the table, some 9 points clear, but having played a game more than their nearest rivals. The purpose for this post, is not to tell you how clever I am, that should be obvious by now, but to point out that they can be laid at 1.40 on the exchanges, should you choose to take a profit, or at least cover your stake.

Whether you should do so, is open to debate, they have played a series of very tough games and now face an easy looking sequence, with 3 of their next 4 at home. Maybe you want to keep a watchful eye on the situation, just remember that a lot can go wrong and very quickly in football, what if they lose their management team ? The potential win for the us is 28 points, but if they collapse.... nothing, infact, we could lose 7 points. It only "costs" 2.8 units to cover our stake and even securing a double digit profit regardless of what happens, by laying them for 20 points, only reduces our profit, if they are champions, by 8 points.

I am not the greatest fan of hedging, my feeling is that you should always do it, or not at all, but it would be remiss of me, not to at least, mention it. It is also a very different situation when you can lay something at big odds on, that you have backed at massive prices. A 20 points lay, means that you win 13 units if they are not promoted, 28 if they go up , but not as champions and 18 if they win the league. Anyway, that particular ball is now firmly in your court.

I will take a look at some of our other, long term positions shortly.

Good Luck.

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