Tuesday, April 14, 2009



Bayern were left humiliated by the 4-0 loss in the first leg, it could, perhaps should, have been much heavier and at the break, a six goal lead would not have been unfair. I do not see the visitors taking too many chances with their big name players, Messi is likely to spend the game on the bench and Henry did not train yesterday.

They have been talking up a good game and said that they will be looking to score early and kill the second leg off, that might be the case, but the tie is already over and I feel that Barce will be more interested in coming home unscathed. Van Bommel's brutal challenge on Messi in Barcelona went unpunished and visiting coach Guardiola will not want a repeat of that, with a crowded fixture list on four fronts still ahead of his team, why take any needless chances.

The Allianz Arena is a 66,000 sell out and with their Bundesliga title challenge back on track with a big home win at the weekend, Bayern will not want to undo that work tonight, with another sould destroying performance. Their defence has a stronger look with the return of Lucio and Lahm and although Jurgen Klinsmann has admitted that scoring four or five is not even a dream, the opportunity to beat possible the best team in the world, doesn't come around very often. Backing Bayern on home soil, at huge odds, when their opponent might settle for a one or two goal loss, is also a rare occurence and we have to take a little.

5.5 points Bayern Munich -1/4 ball 2.36 asian line.


Liverpool were also lucky to only concede three goals in the first leg and will now be eliminated ,if they do not do at least do likewise at Stamford Bridge tonight. That looks a very tall order, but they will take heart from the fact that Bolton managed it in eight minutes at the weekend, of course, they were 4-0 down at the time, but at least it gives them hope. Let's also remember the famous Champions League win over Milan in Istanbul , where they were 3-0 down at the break.

It is against Rafael Benitez's natural instinct to be too gung-ho, but he has no option tonight and his team have goals in them , 21 in their last seven starts and the players who could produce a miracle. He and they will have to gamble, Steven Gerrard will have to start, even if not fully 100% and they are forced to simply go for it. They will certainly see a lot of the ball, as Chelsea seem certain to sit back and play on the counter attack. The Blues will be without the suspended John Terry, which will doubtless please in form visiting striker Fernando Torres and given the circumstances, I have to take the "over" at odds against. Even going a goal down would not change things too much for Liverpool and this could get very stretched, especially after the break.

5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line.

Good Luck.

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