Friday, April 03, 2009

FRIDAY MORNING ..............

Finally, the weekend is here and we can wave goodbye to the International games for a couple of months. It is not the national games that I mind so much, as the break in the domestic action, it just messes everything up, disrupts the programme and momentum.

I have sent subscribers five fairly brief previews for today's football, but will taking a more detailed look at the weekend games, which will include, not one, but two BIG bets. Blog wise, I will try and include one or two of the Friday picks here later in the day, but as always, the only way to receive all of my output is by subscribing to the daily email/newsletter service, take a look at the website for further details or send me an email using this link to ask any questions.

I think that we have a couple of massive months ahead and big profits in store, not just on the football, but a range of other sports. I sent the preview below out on Wednesday and as you will see, Estes was a very strong selection and one at a very juicy price. Round one play was suspended early in the day, but the Texan was already amongst the leaders at -2 after six holes, very long way to go, but subscribers have the value and a bet that will produce a lot of fun over the next few days.



I have written about Bob Estes a lot in the past, he is the money making machine that no one knows. The ultra consistent Estes has made some $9m on tour, yet even his wife might struggle to recognise him in an elevator.

Estes is a native Texan, he was born in Graham not too far away and went to the University of Texas, his debut tournament victory came in the state, way back in 1994, the first of four on the USPGA tour, but winning is not really his game. Grinding his way into the money and frequently the top 25, something he has done in better than one in three of his 535 tour starts, is how he makes his living and since this new course was opened three years ago, he does it best of all here.

The Shell Houston open has been held at the Redstone course for quite a few years, but in 2006 was moved to the new Tournament Course, on the complex. Estes took to it immediately and finished second here in 2006, 9th in 07 and 6th last year. Let's take a quick look back twelve months, the lanky Texan arrived here in poor shape, he had played eight events, missed 5 cuts and registered just one (33rd) top 50 finish, that was just not him, yet still he finished in the top 6.

This year he is much more like his old self, he has played seven events, missed two cuts, but has three top 17 finshes, including a 4th spot at Pebble Beach. Last week in the Arnold Palmer, he caught my eye with a fast finishing 17th place, he opened with a 74, but only Tiger Woods (1st) and Zach Johnson (3rd) played the final three rounds better and a first round 70, which was standard scoring, would have earned him third place.

He is obviously in good shape and playing on a course where he feels happy and which suits his game, he will surely go close to another top ten finish and he is very attractively priced to do something he does every 6.5 tournaments and in 3 from 3 outings here.

8 points Estes to finish in the top ten 8.50 Bet 365 .... similar on the exchanges and there should be more liquidity later in the day, anything above 7.0 offers value IMO.

Back later.

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