Friday, April 03, 2009




Surely we will see some goals here. Hosts have been "over" in their last four home starts, which have averaged 4.25 per game, the visitors have conceded two or more in five of their last seven road games.In a league where the average fixture produces 2.31 goals, these team's respective records of Montpellier (2.93 home) and Clermont (2.71 away) reflects what we can expect tonight and the host team, who now sit five points off the promotion pace, will have to take chances and push for the three points.

5.5 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.94 asian line.


I have seen Angers last two starts, a 2-0 loss at Strasbourg and a 1-0 home defeat at the hands of Ajaccio and was very unimpressed. It might well be that this is just a temporary slump and maybe we can just put it down to variance, they had after all, only recently come off a 15 match unbeaten run, but they are not a side I would be rushing to back at present. Their build up play was not too bad, but in the final third, they looked devoid of confidence and ideas.

Tours on the other hand are full of self belief, are on a long unbeaten run of their own and have won three in a row at home, scoring ten goals.

5 points Tours -1/2 ball 2.20 + general quote.



Mainz should be fired up for this game after losing very heavily at home to Aachen last time out, when complacency might have set in. Most professional teams tend to bounce back after a big loss, their hurt pride often results in a very committed performance next time out and I expect that to prove double today, as Mainz have had a full twelve days to reflect on that 4-1 defeat. They are very capable on the road (8-3-2), collecting 27 points and ony three other teams have more than 14. They remain in the final promotion spot and with Duisburg just 4 points behind, they will be very motivated to keep things tight and avoid defeat this evening. Having missed promotion by just two points last season, they have to complete the job this time round.

I expect them to concentrate on keeping a clean sheet as long as possible and maybe get a little more adventurous later in the game. This is traditionally a low scoring fixture, with the last five h2h meetings here producing just three goals between them and just a single home win. I see a lot of value in the under one goal line for the opening 45 minutes, in a match where both will probably adopt a very cautious opening approach.

7 points "under" 1 goal first half 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

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