BRAZIL - ITALY
Italy need to equal or better Egypt's result to progress to the semi-final stage and will be angry that, once again, they have done things the hard way. The Pharoahs are bouyant after beating the Azzurri and will be confident of beating a young US team who have yet to register a point, but I do think that it will be so easy and a point might be enough for the Italians.
Italy created chances in the second half against Egypt and if one had gone in, they would probably have claimed another, now their backs are against the wall, but that is when we normally see them at their best.
I see plenty of value in the quote on Italy, Brazil will top the group with a draw and will also probably do so with a one goal defeat. They will be keen to avoid Spain until the final, but will surely want to conserve as much energy as possible after a very long season and three games in a week, with (hopefully) two still to play.
We saw some very sloppy defending from Brazil in their opener and although they were more polished against the US, the Americans never really put them under pressure and they will get a real test today. Hopefully Luca Toni will see a lot more playing time , he looks more likely to take any chances that come his way than Vicenzo Iaquinta, who has a dire goalscoring record for the national team, with just two goals in his last 28 starts.
We can bet the world champions getting a start, in a match where they are likely to be the more motivated side, facing a team happy to draw , or maybe even lose by a narrow margin, that looks too good to pass.
6 points Italy +1/4 ball 1.90 + asian line.Good Luck.