Saturday, June 13, 2009

TODAY'S EMAIL .............


Very interesting day in prospect tomorrow, when the UEFA European U21 Championships and Confederations Cup both get underway and hopefully, Andy Roddick is in the Queen's final.





We were very close to a big pay day on the tennis yesterday, but after we had landed bets at odds of 3.60 and 1.91 on the Roddick-Karlovic match, Mikhail Youzhny let both us and himself down badly. He led 5-2 in the opening set tie break and never really recovered from losing four straight points and handing the initiative to Blake. However, a small profit on the tennis and Chile in the football, made it a successful day overall.

I feel that Roddick and Murray have been priced plenty short enough today, with the British player as low as 1.06 in places. They will both probably win, but there is bound to be a blip somewhere along the line for one or both. We are already on Roddick outright and there seems no point in any further involvement in his match, the 26 yo American has yet to drop a set, but did lose their only previous meeting on the surface, here in 2006, so doubtless a little revenge over his Davis Cup partner, will also be on his mind, along with a place in the final. No bet for me though.

Murray has played well this week, but no one has really extended him and in interviews he has made it clear, without offending anybody, that he sees this as little more than a warm up for Wimbledon. It is a shame that his opponent has not chosen to play more on the surface over the years, this is his first ever visit to Queen's and it is obvious he is comfortable on grass. He has two 4th round and one quarter-final appearance at Wimbledon to his name, twice losing closely to Roger Federer.

JCF is a former world number one, but had not won on tour since 2003, before winning in Casablanca this year, that has clearly given him a boost, he has looked confident here and happy in post match interviews. He has had a rough time with sickness and injury over the last five years or so, but those problems look behind him and he also seems less distracted by off the court activities. His Hotel, Tournament and Academy are now all up and running and do not require his daily imput, he seems focused on his game and the benefits are clear to see. I think it would be a major ask for him to win, but see no reason why he cannot keep things close and he looks a good bet, getting a 4.5 game handicap start, if he can take RF to two tie breaks at Wimbledon and to within six games over three sets, he can do likewise against Murray. The Brit has yet to drop a set, but four of them were won by exactly two games and 6-4 6-4 would do nicely.

5 points Ferrero +4.5 games 2.31 Pinnacle..... similar odds available on the exchanges.



One swallow. or seven "overs" do not a summer make, but we have been discussing the increase in goals in certain Scandinavia leagues in mid season, for the last couple of years and successfully dipped our toe in the water on Monday, when we landed a nice "over" double in Superettan. The last seven games played in this division have all produced three or more goals and the four matches today, are certainly worth a second look in this aspect.

This match looks the most promising to me, the two have been producing above the league average of 2.58 goals, with a mean of 2.82 and 2.73 respectively this season. Angelholms are "over" in 12 from 15 starts, Syrianska likewise in 9 from 13.

6 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.88 asian line.



Galaxy did us a big favour last weekend, when collecting all three points in Toronto. They are now unbeaten in ten starts, although that does include eight draws. The win in Ontario, on the artificial surface which had given them great cause for concern in the past,should give them a major psychological boost and I expect that to be apparent today. There are normally goals when these two meet, with the last six h2h meetings ending over, with five producing four or more and four ending by the exact 2-2 scoreline, including the reverse fixture early last month.

It is not impossible that we could see another today in this most draw friendly of leagues, where almost 38% of all games have ended in stalemates this season. I am going to incude this correct score in my staking plan for the game, but will make my main bet the home win.

Real have gone seven starts without a win and have collected only one point and a single goal, from six road starts. However, they have shown clear signs of improvement in recent starts and scored in their last two games, I expect them to get on the scoreboard this evening. They will be without the suspended Robbie Russell.

LAG remain without star player Landon Donovan, who is in South Africa with the US national team, he has been missing for a couple of weeks in any case due to World Cup involvement and Edson Buddle has stepped into his shoes, with a goal in each of the last two starts, so this is not a major concern. He also scored a third in a midweek friendly start and seems likely to lead the line tonight, he looks good at odds of 3.0 in the anytime goalscorer market.

6.5 points LA Galaxy -1/2 ball 2.11 asian line.

0.5 points LAG to win 3-2 correct score 34.0 William Hill.

1 point 2-2 draw correct score 17.0 William Hill.

3 points Edson Buddle to score at anytime 3.0 Bet 365.

Good Luck.

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