Hosts are my idea of the best bet of the day, I would have been even more confident if they were not without Diego Lugano and Christian Rodriguez, but still think they match up very well with this Brazil side and expect them to collect, at the very least , a point. Uruguay have never lost an official match to the visitors on home soil and are determined to hold on to that proud record. They currently sit in 5th place in the table, which would earn them a playoff spot, but sitting just two points off Argentina who are in fourth and with a healthy three point gap to the 6th placed team, they can afford to really go for it tonight, especially as they missed out via the playoff route in 2006.
Offensively they pose a big threat with Suarez and Forlan a pairing which would trouble most defences and they will take great heart from the reverse fixture which they eventually lost 2-1 in Sao Paulo. They led for 35 minutes that night and incredibly, outshot their hosts 11-2 !
This will be probably be very physical, Brazil can "mix it" with the best of them and would be happy to come away with another draw, they are 5-6-1 in qualification. To be able to bet a strong home side with a handicap start, when the visitors are happy with a point and who might already have half an eye on the midweek home meeting with group leaders Paraguay , is far too good an opportunity to pass up. Brazil have won just four of their last 15 World Cup qualification road games.
7 points Uruguay +1/4 ball 1.84 asian line.