Anyway, I had a solid Sunday and that eased the pain a little.
MONDAY APRIL 23rd
Pleasing day yesterday and the eight events previewed, produced a whole host of big priced winners.
Granada @ 2.03 for strong stakes
and the draw in the Fiorentina-Inter game @ 3.30 could hardly have got
the day off to a better start.
Next up was the Manchester United-
Everton fixture where another "strong" bet @ 2.10 for both teams to
score was landed inside 40 minutes and the highlighted big quote for the
visitors to score twice @ 6.0 followed early in the second half.
Late results also went our way,
when Valencia to score three or more @ 3.25 obliged and on the PGA tour,
John Huh landed a full payout @ 6.0 in the market without the top two
and/or a tie @ 8.50 in the without Curtis market, a terrific way to end
the day.
Huh was never really in danger with this bet, he is just 21 years
of age, 22 next month, has only played eleven US tour events , won once
and could have added another yesterday. He gave up ten + strokes to the
field on Thursday and then got to work, picking up 9 strokes on Curtis
and 14 on Every over the next three days, only dropping a stroke at one
of his last 54 holes on a tough course, where no one got double digits
under par for four rounds. Huh was -12 for his last three and to call
this an impressive performance is a bit of an understatement, a little
like calling bungee jumping in Zimbabwe as not for the squeamish !
Huh is not a player we should be in a rush to oppose and I am sure that we can back him again in some way, in the coming weeks.
Luke Donald was a sunday winner for us @ 9.20 a few weeks back and we have been incredibly close with two
other big prices, Robert Allenby @17.0 traded at sub 1.03 with a hole to play, but found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and Phil Mickelson
@ 13.5 entered the final round of the Masters as favourite and paid a
big price for what was effectively one very loose shot. Those two cost
us almost 30 points of profit, but I have a very good handle on the PGA
tour this year and anticipate plenty of winners through the summer.
Another very busy week in prospect and I am 95% certain that I will have my second "maximum" double stake selection of 2012 on Friday, but I will confirm this the day before and send the relevant email at a predetermined exact time.
Onto today, a kind of low profile day in that I am only putting up one bet, but I am quite keen on
it....
FRANCE LIGUE 1: BASTIA - CHATEAUROUX
You
and I have known for many months and now everyone else knows, that
Bastia are the best team in Ligue 2, they have scored the most goals,
conceded the fewest and head the table with an eight point lead over
Reims with this game in hand. More importantly, three points tonight
would give them a 15 point advantage over fourth placed Clermont, with
five rounds to play and a vastly superior ( 18+) goal difference. So cue
huge celebrations and a party atmosphere is planned at the stade de
Furiani, with flags being handed out to every spectator.
Chateauroux
are in tenth place with 44 points, that sees them seven points clear of
Le Havre currently in 18th and the same number adrift of Troyes who are
in the final promotion spot, again, with this game in hand. They are
exactly in mid table from that
point of view, only one team Vannes has ever been relegated with 44
points and that was a very freakish occurence, as they won 12 games, the
same as the team who finished seventh ! So, we can assume that
they are already safe and if not, they have three home games remaining
to claim the, at most ,one point which will seal the deal. Therefore,
surely we can expect them to come looking for the points which would
take them to within four of the promotion spots, it is that "freeroll"
we often refer to. They don't really do draws in any case, just five in
their last 38 league starts (13.16%) and even given Bastia's daunting
home record ( 12-4-0) and arriving without top scorer Maxime Bourgeois,
they should be looking for the win. They have named four strikers in
their squad and two, plus a midfielder have all scored five or more
goals this year, so they have players who know where the goal is and
appear to be coming with the right approach and this is
key.
We talked ahead of the visit from Amiens
on March 16th, (see below), about how the hosts adapt to their visitors
approach, if teams come here and look to shut up shop, they are content
to try and grind things out, but if teams open up, they will follow suit
, safe in the knowledge that they can outscore most in a shootout.
Bastia beat Amiens 2-1 that day ( hooray... good old Amiens !) and have
since beaten Laval 3-2 and Guingamp 3-1 here. If Chateauroux come with
similar intent and apart from damage limitation, which seems to make no
sense, what is the point of doing otherwise, this game should produce
goals, with the visitors also contributing. The visitors actually have a
great record here, winning on five of six visits, scoring 12 in that
sequence. I do not think an away win is totally out of the question, but
they would almost certainly need two goals in any case , with Bastia
scoring in every home start this season and
in 8 from 9 on the road, the likeliest outcome remains a home win with
both on the scoresheet, so 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.0 general quote for me.
Bastia : Novaes,
Baccarelli - Angoula, Choplin, Mary, Harek, Rothen, Diallo, Maoulida,
Thauvin, Khazri, Suarez, Cioni, Marque, Vincent, El Azzouzi.
Châteauroux : Fernandez, Caradec -
Reynaud, Inez, Fournier, Sambou, Neves, Fauque, Orinel, Grange, Kashi,
Hautcoeur, Beauvue, Mandrichi, Lafourcade, Dupuis.
Good Luck.
FRIDAY MARCH 16TH
FRANCE LIGUE 2 :
BASTIA - AMIENS
We
last talked about Bastia on Monday, when they again showed their class
with a 3-1 win at Lens, that gives them
a ten point lead over Troyes in fourth spot and top flight football is
coming back to the second city of Corsica, they are simply playing too
well to mess things up from this position. Latest lambs to the
"slaughter" are basement club Amiens, who gave themselves a lifeline
with a 2-0 win over Angers on Tuesday, so they have had 24 hours less
recovery time, but have little to lose tonight and have showed in recent
road games at Lens, Boulogne, Clermont,Guingamp and Laval, that they
are now prepared to gamble and try to take the game to opponents, which
was not the case earlier in the season, they scored in all five of those
games and I expect them to approach this in a similar manner. I have
reproduced the whole email from March 2nd below, which included a look
at the Guingamp match and also the Tours game that day, more of them
later. Bastia have conceded in 8 of their 13 home games, of the five
where they kept cleansheets, at least four of them
where to teams who came looking to shut up shop and try and steal a
point, all five teams lost. When teams have come here with a more
offensive approach, Bastia are happy to open up and go toe to toe. The
over 2.5 goal line at circa 1.97 is acceptable, but I prefer the odds
against quotes for Amiens to score, or the 2.25 + for both to score,
there is even some 2.375 around and that is a terrific price IMO, for
something that has happened in eight of the visitors last ten road
games, if 2.25 or better is available to you, I make that a solid 1.5
unit selection.
Bastia : Novaes,
Baccarelli - Angoula, Mary, Sans, Harek, Choplin, Genest, Khazri,
Thauvin, Cahuzac, Rothen, Diallo, Maoulida, El-Azzouzi, Suarez.
Amiens : Ruffier - Mainfroi, Mienniel,
Lybohy, Ieslch, Martin, Paul, Kharbouchi, Djaballah, Saïfi, Touzghar,
Cissé, Cirilli, Bazile, Puyo, Zobiri.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
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