Tuesday, April 03, 2012



Busy week in prospect and there is a schedule for content and posting times at the foot of this email, including an early bet for NEXT midweek, please take a quick look.

The domestic fixtures do not make much appeal today, but I suppose I should say a few words about the League 1 match up between Brentford and Oldham Athletic. Understandably, given their recent form the Bees have been backed in asia over the last day or so, down from 1.92 to circa 1.80 and any value has gone. Brentford have been inconsistent this season, especially here at Griffin Park, but have won three in a row for the first time this season and a win and only a win will help them retain their slim playoff hopes.

The Bees have played pretty well in those three wins and in Clayton Donaldson who has scored in each, they have a striker in his best goalscoring form of the campaign. I have had good recent reports of Oldham, with their performances better than results, but they do not have a lot to play for, one more win will give them 51 points and you have to be unlucky in the extreme to be relegated with that total and that magic number is already out of reach of the bottom three IMO.

I can also tell you that Brentford have tended to put in improved performances in return fixtures ( second matches with clubs), this says a lot about them tactically and augurs well for next season, when Uwe Rosler and his backroom team will have far more information on their opponents. The Bees won 2-0 at Boundary Park back in September.

Also, the Bees have posted very good results in matches against teams from the North West, being unbeaten in seven ( 4-3-0) and scoring two or more in six of those, they came up short at Bury ( 1-1) but should have scored four that day and should have also won there and at Tranmere Rovers ( 2-2) , where they threw points away. I do not think that this is coincidence, as Rosler and his first team coach both have homes in the Greater Manchester area and see a lot of games there. Just in case your geography is a little off, Oldham is about 11km northeast of Manchester.

Anyway, hopefully the Bees will win, Donaldson will score a couple, although no 20.0 is available today and other results go their way over the Easter period.

I am going to cover the US Masters golf over the next two days, again, the schedule is below, but I can say a few words about ......






I admit to being tempted by the visitors getting a big handicap start, but I find it hard to get their performance at the Emirates out of my mind, when an early goal by the Gunners rocked Milan and if Arsenal had better options on the bench that night, they might have done the impossible and come back from four down. However, Milan played pretty well in the first leg and had chances to win. It was a very physical battle, with lots of fouls by both teams, Barce were prepared to mix it up with Milan and break up attacks before they started, even Lionel Messi was guilty of this and tonight, might well develope into a similar pattern, it will be interesting to see if Barce stick with Keita , or go with more width.

Pep Guardiola thinks it will be a very different game and one full of goals, let's hope he is right, Barce have scored in thir last 16 home games in the Champions League, averaging close to three goals per game, Guardiola also said that he thinks Milan will score and they have to, to give themselves any chance to progress, they scored two here in a 2-2 draw in the group stage and that was without Zlatan. In the last decade Barcelona have played 46 matches in the knockout stage of the competition and conceded in 60.86% of those, so you could argue that they is value in the visitors scoring at 1.91 or both at 2.04 on the exchanges, given that Milan will have to open up at some stage.

Someone told me when the draw was made that Milan would XX XXXX XX XXX X XXX XXX in the second leg, make of that what you will. The first match was physical and the swedish match officials pretty lenient and Jonas Eriksson's record bears that out. Tonight, Bjorn Kuipers is in the middle and he has awarded 23 yellow, four red cards in five UEFA games this season and looks more likely to take action . Actually, he sent off two Porto players against Barcelona in the "meaningless" Super Cup game with Barcelona at the start of the season, so the circa 3.70 for a sending off might appeal.

Very intresting game, but no "official" bet for me, if pushed for a selection, I guess both to score would be my pick.

MILAN :Abbiati, Amelia, Piscitelli, Abate, Antonini, Bonera, De Sciglio, Mesbah, Mexes, Nesta, Zambrotta, Yepes, Ambrosini, Aquilani, Boateng, Emanuelson, Nocerino, Seedorf, El Shaarawy, Ibrahimovic, Maxi Lopez, Pato, Robinho.

Good Luck.


Wednesday April 4 : Champions League and US Masters Golf Outright ....... to be sent 10.00 Wednesday

Thursday April 5 : Europa League and US Masters Golf Round 1 Match Ups...... to be sent 10.00 Thursday

Friday April 6 : Ligue 2 and circa 25 Good Friday UK football fixtures ....... to be sent 17.00 Thursday

Saturday April 7: Email # 1 Normal Saturday Football programme ....... to be sent 10.00 Friday
Email #2 US Masters Golf Update ........ to be sent 11.00 Saturday

Sunday April 8 : Email # 1 Normal Sunday Football programme ...... to be sent 10.00 Sunday
Email #2 US Masters Golf Update and Early midweek football selection ** ....... to be sent 11.30 Sunday

Monday April 9: Easter Monday Full English domestic programme ....... to be sent 10.00 Monday

All times as always are UK times.

** I will almost certainly have an early and very strong bet for midweek, which I want to give as soon as the asian odds are released on Sunday, this will almost certainly be a double stake maximum bet, the first of 2012 as the previous match was postponed.

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