Thursday, April 12, 2012


There is another freebie copy of my daily notes below, you can expect the next on, or around, May 2nd.

As you know, they are produced every day and you can receive them for less than 1.25 euros per day for an extended subscription.

That is vitually giving it away and the daily email is fat free and better for you than most of those other "cheap" pleasures !

Email me at with the subject title "interest" and I will forward details.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY APRIL 12th ( sent to subscribers @10.15)

The two Lecce goals ( odds 3.50) came late, but they came and the relegation battlers had earlier hit the woodwork and missed a penalty, so if the second had not come, it would have been rough justice.

We also had a small profit on the Inter game, but big news of course was the 3-1 win for Montpellier ( odds 2.29), which was very pleasing and it is nice when a plan comes together !

Football wise, today is hardly a day to get the pulses racing, but I think I have found a really nice value bet and the weekend ahead looks huge and like London buses, after waiting over three months for a first maximum bet of 2012, there is a good chance that there will be a second next midweek, but more of that later in the week.


Hosts have been regular contenders for Champions League places over the last decade, that was a massive achievement for such a small club, who were still playing regional football three decades ago and started the Millenium in the second tier. Key to success has been their home form at El Madrigal and despite falling on hard times and being involved all season in the relegation scrap, they still remain terribly difficult to beat on home soil, with a 5-8-2 record, they have been competitive here against all the top teams taking points off Sevilla, Bilbao, Valencia, Real Madrid and Barcelona, few would doubt that they, along with tonight's visitors Malaga constitute the top six teams in Spain, so the Yellow Submarine can complete a clean sweep tonight. One team that Villa have had problems with is bogey side Levante, if we ignore games with them along with visits from Real and Barce, Villarreal are 25-9-1 here in the league over the last 24 months and this is not a fixture any team relishes.

Malaga arrive in fourth spot and would move back above Valencia and into third with the win, but could probably live with a share of the spoils in what is always a keenly fought fixture, with seven of the last 17 h2h meetings ending all square. That point would give them a three point cushion over Levante and at least six over the really big players a little further down the table in the race for Champions League places. A point for Villa and a win in their relegation "six pointer" with Racing at the weekend, would go a long way to ensuring their survival and whilst both teams would like to win this evening, a point is surely a result that each could live with. If pushed, I would have to take the hosts off level ball, but at odds against, much prefer the overpriced stalemate.

Big news surrounding this game is the return to El Madrigal of former coach Manuel Pellegrini and Spanish international Santi Cazorla, who signed for Malaga in the summer for 21m euros. They will be sure of a warm welcome, Pellegrini will know many of his former charges well, but it works two ways and the home players will probably know how to handle Cazorla. Pellegrini introduced the famous 4-2-2-2 at Villa and they still go with that, which can leave the midfield very congested at times, they will be without the suspended Oriol and Angel tonight , but have a lot of experienced defensive cover and these losses are offset on the other side of the pitch with Malaga missing several including starting keeper Caballero and key def midfielder Jeremy Toulalan who is out for the season. I can see these two playing out an entertaining draw and at the odds offered it looks far and away the best value on a low key evening. Draw 3.55 + betting exchanges.

PGA TOUR: RBC HERITAGE, Harbor Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, SC

The Tour stays in the Deep South, moving from Augusta to Hilton Head and form on the two courses has become increasingly transferable in recent years, 2011 winner Brandt Snedeker and runner up Luke Donald warmed up with a T15 and T4 place in the Masters last year and are again amongst the main contenders this year, after strong finishes last weekend. Infact, there is a quintet of golfers who perform well year in, year out on the Harbour Town Links who proved their well being at Augusta.

We have to start with Donald, he has finished 2-3-2 here in the last three years and clearly loves the place, with the tight fairways and need to position the ball in the right place and think your way around the course, clearly suiting his game. Luke never got things going at the Masters until it was too late, you could hear the frustration in his post round interviews, but a final round 68, was five shots better than he shot over the first three days and a total only beaten on Sunday by Bo Van Pelt and that at least brings him here in good heart and remember, the englishman is already a winner in the US this year.

That last round 64 from from BVP was incredible and he will be itching to get back on course, especially having posted three top 13 placings here, including a third in 2010, in the last five years.

Snedeker warmed up for a repeat with a 19th place finish at Augusta, very similar to last year's form coming in and like Donald, he has already won this season.

JIm Furyk won here in 2010 and also has two runner up spots to his name, he was second in the Transitions Championship to Donald and was 11th in the Arnold Palmer and Masters since then and is in his best form for two years, I have listened to some very confident interviews from him over the last month and it has not always been like that from realist Furyk, after the Transitions he said ....

Q. How encouraged do you feel? Do you feel like you're back to playing Jim Furyk golf now for hopefully the rest of the year?

JIM FURYK: I've kind of been saying all year I've been feeling comfortable about my game. The results on paper might not show it before this week, but I felt good about the way I'm hitting it; the way I'm shaping the ball well; my short game feels good, I'm really happy with my equipment.
I'm really happy with my equipment. I switched a lot of equipment in my bag this year but never felt better with it. I did a lot of great testing at Callaway with it and I appreciate all their hard work.
I feel confident in my game. I'm hoping to play better and to play well this year. Talking about this year; I was kind of laughing about my press conference here yesterday, because all we did was talk about how I played last year. I laughed about it on the way out of here yesterday. And I would like to play well for a few more events so we could talk about how well I'm playing this year, rather than how bad I played last year.

He clearly felt everything was coming together and his form since bears that out, he seems sure to go well this week.

Last of the five is Kevin Na, he is very consistent and had already posted three top 5 finishes in six starts before a T12 at the Masters and he has finished 9-35-MC-17-4 here in the last five years, you can forget that missed cut, as he withdrew from the tournament the following week and all was clearly not right with him at the time. He got that all important breakthrough win at the end of last season and a follow up victory should not be too long in coming, keep him on your radar.

Na should definitely go well and Donald is a worthy favourite, but a little too skinny for me at this stage.

No need to get overly involved at this stage, we will return to the tournament later in the week, but lets start with something small on Jim Furyk, 0.25 unit to win @ 18.0 exchanges, one unit Top Ten finish @ 2.75 +.

Good Luck.

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