Saturday, April 21, 2012


An edited version of my daily notes, sent to subscribers overnight is reproduced below. It included four red type selections, two suggestions and a very nice multiple at odds of 35.0. 
There was also an early non league selection sent Friday, which is now trading a full quarter goal lower.

I can only post in full one of the red type selections on here, but even the "suggestions" include some useful information. Results do not really matter short term, but the content does and if you want to receive the notes, in full, on a  daily basis, for about the cost of a cup of coffee, sent me an email @


I will send a brief update email at 14.00 today .

Six matches to discuss in this email. Four selections, two suggestions at big odds and a very juicy looking multiple bet at a massive 34-1 .


Pompey beat Crystal Palace 2-1 on Tuesday and kept alive their slim survival hopes, now they need to see off Derby County and hope that Barnsley manage to take a point off Bristol City and keep the dream alive to the last week of the season. Palace were a little unlucky not to claim a share of the spoils, they hit the woodwork and were wasteful infront of goal. County are a similar level side to Palace, they also arrive with nothing to play for being rooted in midtable, what Pompey would give for that ! Derby arrive on the back of consecutive losses to play off contenders and failed to score in both, but their performance in a wide open game at Cardiff in midweek was much improved and they carved out a number of goalscoring opportunities. Visiting coach Nigel Clough will be without defender Tom Naylor and midfielder Ben Davies (both hamstring) and he has added youngsters Mason Bennett and Will Hughes to the squad,Bennett, who is 15, became Derby County's youngest-ever player when he made his first-team bow in October against Middlesbrough while 16-year-old Hughes came off the bench in the Rams' 3-2 loss at Peterborough United in November. Clough intends to give both some game time at Fratton Park.....



Stevenage found a late winner at home to Carlisle in midweek and that really opened up the four way race for what looks the sole remaining playoff spot, that is unless Hudderfield Town or MK Dons do the gentlemanly thing and lose their last three starts....

41Milton Keynes43201498145+3674WWXL2111644421229853724
51Huddersfield Town43191777546+2974LLLW21126332192271144327
6Notts County431910146555+1067OWWW21125436242275102931


81Carlisle United431715115961-266LLOX2211743729216872232


Boro have still to go to Sheffield United next week and Carlisle are at Sheffield Wednesday this afternoon, Notts County have the easiest run in on paper and currently in pole position, have to be favourites, but pressure is a funny thing and it would not surprise me were they to slip up. Brentford could put themselves in seventh today with a win, possibly even sixth and they will surely have to go all out for the three points, even coach Uwe Rosler, who has been accused of being a little too negative at times, will surely be prepared to throw caution to the wind at some stage.Boro do not really have a fearsome home record, OK, they have only lost three times here, but just a 38% win record and only twice this season have they scored two or more goals and not also conceded two or more. The Bees are unbeaten in seven, with two draws and have only conceded twice in 675 minutes, both goals coming when they were already two up, in a 3-1 win at Preston and 2-1 victory at MK Dons. They are coming off two 0-0 draws, but were jaded in the first and facing a fresher opponent and last week, Notts County came with only a point in mind and the game never got going with a lot of free kicks and the visitors looking to slow the game down at every opportunity. We can expect this to be a more open encounter and the Bees cannot have any excuses after a free midweek, when they have had five clear days to prepare for one opponent, Boro have had to face two promotion rivals inside four days and despite their high fitness levels, might feel the effects of that, the longer this one goes. Brentford will have big travelling support, they have already sold 1,100 + tickets and should have closer to 1,400 in the stadium, which is likely to be 25% + of the total attendance. Bees have moved slightly from a 4-5-1 formation on the road, to 4-4-1-1, with Saunders, who is at the top of his game, playing just behind Donaldinho and this has worked really well in recent away starts. Last home loss for Boro, came against Orient who played a very similar formation to the Bees. Close game to call, any value is probably on the straight away win, which looks overpriced at circa 3.40 IMO.


Charlton are promoted, they need four more points to make mathematically certain of going up as Champions and six would give them that "magical" total of 100 points for the season, but they could reach both targets by winning their last two games after today and still have that last day of the season home fixture with Hartlepool, with which to put on a show for their supporters. My point is that they do not have to win today.

The situation is very different for the visitors, they are three points from safety and the two teams just above them have very win-able fixtures this afternoon, Leyton Orient hosting Yeovil Town and Walsall going to Exeter City, who whilst not quite relegated yet, are in even bigger trouble, five points behind and with an inferior goal difference to Wycombe. Wanderers need the win, especially with their two remaining fixtures also very tough looking games on paper, a visit from Notts County, who will be battling for that final playoff spot and a trip to Hillsborough to face Wednesday, currently third in the table, although a glimmer of hope there as the Owls might have nothing to play for by that stage and could be looking to rest players ahead of the post season.

I feel Charlton have ridden their luck a lot this season, it is hard to call a team fortunate after 43 games when they lead the field by six points and all but two teams by 20 + , but I have seen them outplayed on at least five occasions and in each, they have managed to win by a single goal, in two, with virtually their only attempt on goal in 90 minutes, BUT they have won 28 games and you can't argue with that, as much as I would like to try ! Anyway, Notts County and Colchester United have come here and won in the last 5-6 weeks and Rochdale and Bury collected recent points at the Valley and Walsall came here on Easter Monday, had 16 attempts on goal and left feeling "robbed". You could argue that Wanderers are hungrier than all of those visitors, they do have goals in them, 22 in their last 11 starts and will get chances. They were dismal when they let us down at Chesterfield recently, but bounced back with two goals against another releagtion haunted team in Oldham last weekend, only to be denied all three points by a 90th minute penalty, after they had missed a spot kick of their own which would have put them 3-1 up.  Anyway, win or lose, Wycombe Wanderers look attractively priced at 6.0 to claim the three points they so desperately need.




18Oldham Athletic431310204764-1749XLLL2184923242256112440


20Leyton Orient431210214370-2746LLLL21551119312275102439
21Wycombe Wanderers431110226180-1943XLXX2276934342144132746
231Exeter City43911233967-2838LWLX2177725252224161442


1Swindon Town43285106929+4089LWWW2218314482110292521
21Shrewsbury Town4325996337+2684WWWW2217503612218492725
31Crawley Town43221477450+2480WXWX2214534722218942728
42Torquay United43231196044+1680OXWW22127335222111462522
5Southend United43228137048+2274OWLW21106531182212283930

We are down to four teams battling for the two remaining automatic promotion spots and with a playoff spot already assured, there is no point in anyone leaving anything out on the pitch, there is nothing to lose and everything to gain from going all out for maximum points. Torquay are the minnows of the bunch, being easily the smallest club near the top of the table and almost certainly with the lowest playing budget. But they have performed best of these in 2012, collecting 45 points from 22 starts since the turn of the year, Crawley Town with 31 and Southend United with two points less, have fallen off the pace slowly, but surely in the second half of the campaign and are stumbling over the finishing line, although Crawley might just have found some form just in time, with seven points from three starts, but with those two wins coming against teams in the bottom five, they have not beaten much !

Torquay boss Martin Ling has targeted nine points from their remaining games, they might not need three wins, but it is good to know that United feel they do. Much of their fantastic run has to go down to keeping a very settled starting eleven, six of the players have started 44 + games in all competitions and four others have 35 + starts, which is incredible, similar story today, Ling must choose ( his only selection problem) between Ian Morris who returns from suspension and Ryan Jarvis for the starting role alongside Howe and Stevens upfront and as the coach explained "whomever doesn't start will be a superb sub to have". The 4-3-3/ 4-3-2-1 has worked terrifically well for United and they have not looked back since switching from 4-4-2 at the end of October.

Hosts have had a solid enough start to League 2 life after promotion last season, but boss Terry Brown, who has been sick this week and missed training,knows this group of players are not strong enough to mount a promotion challenge, he and his management team are already looking to bring in new recruits for next season and now that survival is guaranteed will be looking to rotate his squad over the last three games and look at all his options. Brown said "some of the players on the periphery who are playing for contracts I would like to give run-outs to. I would like to look at other players, but it is proving more difficult than I envisaged because we do not want to end the season with a run of defeats. I am not saying that because we are playing the youngsters that would definitely happen, it is for them to prove otherwise if they play ". Hosts have not won in four, just once in seven and have underperformed against the better teams, being without a win in 13 starts against top 8 sides. Plenty of United fans making the very long journey up and they have sold their full allocation of tickets for the game, I expect them to be going home in bouyant mood.1.5 units Torquay United -0.5 ball 2.12 asian line.

Sent Friday 13.52 UK time ....

Woking -1.25 ball 1.83 asian handicap is likely to disappear quickly and you might even be able to trade out pre kick off / shortly for a profit. Now trading @ -1.5 ball 1.74

Good Luck.


No comments: