Sunday, April 15, 2012



Golf as promised, but I have also found what looks a really nice football bet for one of tonight's late kick off's. Also a "suggestion" for that game at circa 3.40 and I urge you to strongly consider both bets.



-6 NA

Swedish golfer Carl Pettersson is a four time winner on tour, is in solid form having already finished runner up twice this season, a good front runner who has won on three of the five occasions he has led entering the final round and one who knows this part of the world very well, having a home in and attending college in the neighbouring state of North Carolina.

He improved his position both times he started inside the top five on sunday in 2011, CP was ranked 9th on tour for Round 4 scoring last year and is already ranked 13th from limited starts this campaign and it is very difficult to pick holes in his chances today. I priced him at even money in a 100% book, so anything over 2.0 and he is currently circa 2.06/ 2.08 on the exchanges is acceptable if that is your kind of thing, he has a four stroke lead over the field aside from Colt Knost and whilst it is always dangerous to write anybody off, I do not like the chances of Knost at all. He has shown little on tour so far, one third place in a low profile event and has just stepped up from the Nationwide Tour for a second time, he looks very much the journeyman pro, infact, he would proably love to be considered as such ! Knost was very nervous yesterday and goodness knows how he slept overnight and how he will react today, not too well is my guess.

Regular readers will probably know that Zach Johnson is a player I like a lot and he should definitely have won on tour last year, something he had managed in the four previous years and is likely to do so again this year, but he has little previous form here at the Heritage and is short enough in the outright markets as the closest "name" player to the top two.

My very basic pre tournament notes are reproduced below and it is Brandt Snedeker and Kevin Na, whom we discussed there that I would like to focus on today.


..... averaging 68.81 for 16 rounds, that is over three strokes per round better than Robert Garrigus who was ranked 161st btw, he played the same number of Sunday rounds and a three stoke margin is HUGE , with a capital H U G E !


So, how do we approach this ? If you twisted my arm, threatened me with lifetime banishment from Griffin Park unless I picked a winner, I would have to go with Pettersson, who has solid credentials, but the odds are skinny and we can take better odds without necessarily trying to find the tournament winner.




Good Luck.

PGA TOUR: RBC HERITAGE, Harbor Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, SC ( written thursday)

The Tour stays in the Deep South, moving from Augusta to Hilton Head and form on the two courses has become increasingly transferable in recent years, 2011 winner Brandt Snedeker and runner up Luke Donald warmed up with a T15 and T4 place in the Masters last year and are again amongst the main contenders this year, after strong finishes last weekend. Infact, there is a quintet of golfers who perform well year in, year out on the Harbour Town Links who proved their well being at Augusta.

We have to start with Donald, he has finished 2-3-2 here in the last three years and clearly loves the place, with the tight fairways and need to position the ball in the right place and think your way around the course, clearly suiting his game. Luke never got things going at the Masters until it was too late, you could hear the frustration in his post round interviews, but a final round 68, was five shots better than he shot over the first three days and a total only beaten on Sunday by Bo Van Pelt and that at least brings him here in good heart and remember, the englishman is already a winner in the US this year.

That last round 64 from from BVP was incredible and he will be itching to get back on course, especially having posted three top 13 placings here, including a third in 2010, in the last five years.

Snedeker warmed up for a repeat with a 19th place finish at Augusta, very similar to last year's form coming in and like Donald, he has already won this season.

JIm Furyk won here in 2010 and also has two runner up spots to his name, he was second in the Transitions Championship to Donald and was 11th in the Arnold Palmer and Masters since then and is in his best form for two years, I have listened to some very confident interviews from him over the last month and it has not always been like that from realist Furyk, after the Transitions he said ....

Q. How encouraged do you feel? Do you feel like you're back to playing Jim Furyk golf now for hopefully the rest of the year?

JIM FURYK: I've kind of been saying all year I've been feeling comfortable about my game. The results on paper might not show it before this week, but I felt good about the way I'm hitting it; the way I'm shaping the ball well; my short game feels good, I'm really happy with my equipment.
I'm really happy with my equipment. I switched a lot of equipment in my bag this year but never felt better with it. I did a lot of great testing at Callaway with it and I appreciate all their hard work.
I feel confident in my game. I'm hoping to play better and to play well this year. Talking about this year; I was kind of laughing about my press conference here yesterday, because all we did was talk about how I played last year. I laughed about it on the way out of here yesterday. And I would like to play well for a few more events so we could talk about how well I'm playing this year, rather than how bad I played last year.

He clearly felt everything was coming together and his form since bears that out, he seems sure to go well this week.

Last of the five is Kevin Na, he is very consistent and had already posted three top 5 finishes in six starts before a T12 at the Masters and he has finished 9-35-MC-17-4 here in the last five years, you can forget that missed cut, as he withdrew from the tournament the following week and all was clearly not right with him at the time. He got that all important breakthrough win at the end of last season and a follow up victory should not be too long in coming, keep him on your radar.

Na should definitely go well and Donald is a worthy favourite, but a little too skinny for me at this stage.

No need to get overly involved at this stage, we will return to the tournament later in the week, but lets start with something small on Jim Furyk, 0.25 unit to win @ 18.0 exchanges, one unit Top Ten finish @ 2.75 +.

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