Wednesday, April 04, 2012


This is the Champions League preview I referred to this morning....

Four of the five suggestions and the two main bets won, odds were 2.84, 5.0, 10.0, 2.92 , the other at odds of 126.0 was Real to win 6-2..... they won 5-2 and had six minutes of normal , plus added time to find that ultimately illusive sixth ! So close to a famous clean sweep !


Although this is a "friendly", with Real already three up it is game over for the Cypriots, it is the more interesting of the two fixtures from a betting perspective IMO and there are a number of interesting options.

There has been a lot of talk about the hosts fielding some fringe players and they might well do so, but they have named the following squad and that doesn't leave much room to "weaken" the team, especially in an attacking sense .........

Porteros: Casillas, Adán and Tomás Mejías.
Defensas: Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo, Coentrão, Albiol and Varane.
Centrocampistas: Sahin, Kaká, Özil, Granero, Alonso, Altintop, Callejón and Di María.
Delanteros: Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema and Higuaín

Key here will be the first goal, if it comes early enough, there is no limit to how many we could see and Apoel, who are free scoring by Cypriot standards can play their part.

Real have played 15 home games in La Liga, ten of those have produced five or more goals, that is 67% but offered at 2.84+ on the exchanges tonight, six, or 40% have seen at least six goals scored and that is available at 5.0, both of those quotes look far too high. Hosts have conceded in eleven of those 13 wins, including two each to Getafe, Vallecano and Levante, so the circa 10.0 for Apoel to score twice and especially the 2.92 + for them to score, also looks attractive. I am fairly certain they will come with a positive mindset, they have already done enough to make them go down in local football history and a goal in the Bernabeu for any player would be cherished and long remembered. Apoel have already scored at both Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Porto this season, both established CL teams.

Before someone points out that this is the CL and not La Liga, Real have also beaten Ajax 3-0, Lyon 4-0, CSKA 4-1 and Dinamo Zagreb 6-2 and it is the last of those that is most similar to tonight's game, the first two came when the group was undecided and against CSKA, progression had to be ensured first. That 6-2 scoreline is worth noting, it is the same margin that Real beat Vallecano by and they also beat Sevilla on the road by the identical scoreline, so, three 6-2 wins this season and that makes the 125-1 for a repeat very tempting indeed for those who like big prices.

Real are also coming off a 5-1 road win at Osasuna, which made 100 league goals from 30 starts, they are a potent attacking force and Benzema, Higuain and Ronaldo have 99 goals between them in all competitions and just cannot stop scoring, there is also always competion between the three and more so between Ronaldo and Messi, so the Portugese striker will definitely be looking to add to his tally this evening.

I like so much here, all the suggestions highlighted appeal, but trying to be selective... 1.5 units "Over" 4.5 goals 2.84 exchanges.... or over 4 @ 2.29 on the asian handicap and One unit Apoel to score 2.92 exchanges and go on, be brave throw a euro or two on that 6-2 scoreline at 100-1 +

Good Luck.


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