Sunday, May 13, 2007

PREMIERSHIP ..... Last round of the season

Conspiracy theorists have been having a field day this morning, with the principal idea that if Manchester United are beating West Ham by a number of goals late in the game, that Sheffield United will "let" Wigan win, thereby relegating the Hammers.

I am not getting involved in any of that myself, but it is certainly a possibility. The Tevez saga has upset the other strugglers and a visit to Old Trafford is never easy.

If this is to be the case, the one likely result is the half time draw in Sheffield. Of course all this will go out of the window, if West Ham take an early lead.
Whatever happens, we are in for an interesting afternoon.

I am looking at two "overs" in the Premiership this afternoon. As in most leagues at this stage of the season, we can expect more goals, the last 36 matches, over 3 weekends, have averaged 3.277 goals, which is almost 0.9 goals above the norm.

My first is the Middlesbrough-Fulham game, the reverse fixture ended 2-1 and this was a travesty of justice with Boro creating a hatful of chances and the Londoners goal led a charmed life. The spine of the Fulham team is missing, with Pearce, Brown and Bouba Diop all out. Last 4 of 5 here have been over and I favour goals at the Riverside.

Bolton are "over" in 5 from 6 starts and are certainly playing a more open style. Visitors Aston Villa are over in 3 from 6. Last 6 between the two have produced 22 goals, at an average of 3.67. Draw has little value for either and this could be quite entertaining.

4.5 points Boro-Fulham over 2.25 goals 1.70 asian line won + 3.15 pts
4.5 points Bolton-Villa over 2.25 goals 1.8 asian line won + 3.6 pts

1.5 points double both over 2.5 goals circa 4.0 won + 4.5 pts
Good Luck.

No comments: