I am going to send two emails today, the next will cover the US Open Golf, possible a bet for the MLS tonight and definitely an early selection for tomorrow. That will be in about 90 minutes.
CONCACAF GOLD CUP
Everyone seems to think that this is a straight match between the US and Mexico, that may well turn out to be the case, but I am not so sure. Honduras have impressed so far, we discussed them in a little more detail, in an earlier email this week, they have an easy looking quarter final and if one of the big guns were to slip up, then this 16-1 would look massive. I think at anything around the 14.0 mark they are worth a small bet.
2 points Honduras outright 17.0 Victor Chandler
USA - PANAMA
At first glance this looks an easy win for the US, who have been very tight defensively and found some form up front. Panama will also be hampered by the loss of three players.
However, they are one of the few sides that can compete physically with the athletic americans and do look to have goals in them. You know that Blas Perez is a favourite of mine and he may well get on the score sheet. The two teams met in the final , last time round with the US winning on a penalty shootout after a 0-0 draw. I expect this to be close, if, as I believe Panama do score, the US will have a mountain to climb to cover the handicap.
5.5 points Panama +1.75 goals 1.73 OR 5 points Panama +1.5 goals 1.91 asian lines
U21 CHAMPIONSHIP .... NETHERLANDS-BELGIUM
Just a follow up to yesterday's email, as I said, we should cover our draw bet with a small wager on Belgium.
1.25 points Belgium 5.30 exchanges.
MAHUT - CLEMENT
I like Mahut, who is 31-17 on grass and has beaten Bjorkman, Ljubicic and Nadal this week, to beat his countryman, he leads the h2h 3-0, two of them on fast courts and has yet to drop a set. He matches up well against Clement.
Roddick and Tursunov III, like Rocky these two have had two titanic battles, the two matches have gone to 8 sets amd an incredible 112 games, the last meeting in the Davis Cup was 17-15 in the 5th set ! The first match was decided by 3 tie breaks. Roddick of course has the edge on grass, but has looked short of confidence this week. I really like the over games.
Jankovic should be too strong for Bondarenko, but her opponent is a fighter and should be capable of taking a set. The Serbian holds a 5-0 h2h advantage, but their meeting on grass last year went to a decider . Jelena is such a bubbly character, I do feel she will be suited by these continous rain delays.
4 points Mahut 1.77 Betfair WON
5.5 points Roddick- Tursunov over 23.5 games 1.91 pinnacle ... similar exchanges
lay 4 points 2-0 Jankovic 1.78 exchanges
Nothing for the MLS at present, although I might put something in the chatbox or blog later, if I can get some information confirmed.
SPANISH PRIMERA SUNDAY ..... SEVILLE- VILLAREAL
Seviila still have an outside chance to become champions, but this is very much out of their own hands and EXTREMELY unlikely. They look a little jaded, which is understandable, after the fantastic and very long, season that they have had. In six days time they will play their domestic cup final and may prefer to save whatever energy they have left, for that fixture.
Villareal need a win to ensure a UEFA Cup spot for next season, they will be without top scorer Diego Forlan, but have other options and could hardly be in better form. They have won 7 in a row, including defeats of Barcelona and away to Valencia, scoring an amazing 18 goals.
I have to take them to beat a tired looking Seville.
4.5 points Villareal +1/2 ball 1.86 asian line
1 points Villareal 4.0 general.
US OPEN GOLF
This still looks wide open and the course will continue to get tougher. I am going to stick with a couple of 2 ball bets and will look at the outright and place only markets again tomorrow. I was very impressed by Aaron Baddeley yesterday, as much by his off the course attitude as anything, he simply oozed confidence and looked extremely relaxed on a huge stage. He is a winner and knows how to get the job done. I had a long look at the 2.20 for him to beat Justin Rose, but opted to pass, if this had been the final day, it would have been a strong bet, pretty sure we will be returning to him tomorrow.
I will take a little on Mike Weir to beat Olin Browne, Browne is in the veteran class now and is soon to join the seniors tour. He has one very good finish, a decade ago in the US Open, but this is not really his cup of tea and I expect him to fade today. Weir is a major winner and has several high place finishes in this event, he has hit 11 greens in regulation each day and Browne only managed 7 yesterday, relying on his putter to save him and he is not strong enough to continue doing that. Last year, for 3rd round scoring on tour, the Canadian was over 1.57 strokes per round better than Browne, a HUGE amount. In similar conditions last year, on day 3 at Winged Foot, Weir put in one of the best rounds of the day and should win this 2 ball.
I like Steve Stricker at a nice price to beat Vijay Singh. The stats make very intersting reading, Stricker is 10th for fairways hit, 7th for GIR, VJ is 103rd and 48th respectively, the Fijian has (just) shaded the putting stats, but Stricker is the better putter overall and is a very consistent 3rd round scorer, currently 4th on tour and top 20 in 2006.
I am sorry, I keep coming back to Baddeley, going to have to back him, the odds seem wrong and if I HAD to pick a winner right now, he would probably be my choice, so why would I not back him to beat Rose at 2.20 ? Sometimes you have to just go with your instinct.
4.5 points Weir to beat Browne 1.83 Hills// 1.80 general WON
4 points Stricker to beat Singh 2.40 Expekt .... similar exchanges WON
4 points Baddeley to beat Rose 2.20 general. WON
U21 CHAMPIONSHIP.... Netherlands-Belgium
This is being played tomorrow (saturday), but it looks likely that we will see the host nation, looking to help their neighbours, who need a point to progress. The Netherlands have already qualified and will top the group with a point. We can still back the draw at 2.25, this seems very likely to be odds on tomorrow, it already is, in several places. We might then cover it, with a tiny stake on Belgium to win, which should be a little higher by then.
4.5 points Netherlands U21-Belgium U21 draw 2.25 Ladbrokes// 2.20 general, unibet/centrebet WON