Friday, August 05, 2011


I have been basically begging anyone reading my daily notes to back Brentford in League 1 right through pre season. My first notes were written on June 10th, that is eight long weeks ago, when I wrote ......

LEAGUE 1 ( written 10/06)

I did not plan to send another email today, but have been thinking about this all morning and I think events over the weekend/ next week will cause these odds to drop and strongly feel we should get on now.

Most of you know that I am a lifelong Brentford supporter, but I do not often bet on their games and am just as likely to oppose them as back them, just wanted to make that clear.

The Bees are currently in a strange position, in a sort of joint ownership between the supporters and Matthew Benham, with MB set to take over sole ownership after a five year term, however, forget about that, Benham is the man making the decisions and funding the club. He has his own men on the board and in executive positions and has invested heavily in the club both on and off the pitch . Brentford have very ambitious Academy plans and the club are being run in an ultra professional manner, looking to secure a long term future at Championship level and maybe beyond.

For those that do not know, Benham is the owner of Smartodds and is probably the biggest european gambler in asian markets, betting in astronomical sums, I also believe he might be a shareholder at Samvo, but that is just speculation on my part, he might not be wealthy in the Roman Abramovich sense, but in non EPL terms is up there in the rich list and already has some £5-10m of investment of some kind in the club, he is also said to be a long time ( 20 years +) supporter of the Bees. It is also worthy of note that he or his company do not bet on any Brentford matches.

Anyway, since getting involved the playing budget has increased some three fold, Brentford have got promotion from League 2, finished 9th at the higher level in 2010 and 11th this season, it is a sign of how far they have come in a couple of seasons that many supporters and we are certainly not used to success, were disappointed by a midtable finish and Wembley appearance in the JPT.

Benham and his team have taken a couple of months to find a new coach and Uwe Rosler will be announced today, the 42 year old german spent four seasons at Manchester city where he enjoyed cult status and has coached three teams in Norway. He is another wildly ambitious individual and is looking to make his mark in England, he will bring his own team with him including it is said Gunnar Halle. The pair know the english game well and are said to have really impressed at interview, giving detailed analysis of where the team were weak and their proposals to upgrade the squad, these were said to be very specific and not general thoughts. I also believe they fit the criteria to be able to make use of the data that Smartodds will surely make available.

Rosler is still loved at Manchester City and whilst the ownership there has changed, he still regularly attends games and functions, keeps a home in the area and has strong contacts at the club, there is a good chance that a few fringe players will be loaned to the London club. Brentford have a good reputation for looking after youngsters and have enjoyed similar relationships with other clubs, especially Leicester and Ipswich in recent seasons, so this would make a lot of sense and be beneficial to both.

Brentford do not need to improve a lot to get involved in the promotion race and whilst there are a lot of big name clubs in the division this year, including both Sheffield teams, there is no way that the Bees should be as high as 33-1 to win this, they have far more potential and ambition than half a dozen teams shorter in the betting and I simply do not see them outside the top eight. Big value on the outright and promotion odds and once plans have been laid out and culling and addition of players begins, I expect these to drop considerably.

1 unit Brentford to win 26.0 + ... up to 34.0 available.

2 units Brentford to gain promotion 9.0

That was two months ago and I will give a timeline of my related updated notes since then....

Good Luck.


Btw, I LOVE this photograph of Rosler and Peter Gilham ( Mr Brentford) or the "Glums" as they look here. It is funny because in anything Bees related Gilham is about as upbeat as it is possible to be.......... this was probably the first time the pair had met ..... take my word, it is FUNNY !!

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