Saturday will be party time across England, the weather is fantastic and the "three lions" start their campaign against Paraguay. Everyone has caught World Cup fever, flags and bunting whichever way you look and even my normally sleepy (until closing time) home town, is putting up a big screen for the annual carnival.
I rate Paraguay quite highly, you can find out why in my previous post "Anibal Lecture To Silence Lions?". My first inclination was to take them +3/4 on the asian line, but have decided to look at other markets for my selection..
England do not score too many goals, overall World Cup record is 68 goals in 50 games, at an average 1.36, if we only count group games that figure is reduced to 1.14 per game. In qualification they only managed 17 in 10 games, ten fewer than the second placed team, Poland.
In recent friendly fixtures, this figure has increased but Sven's attitude to these games has already been well documented. They went in level at half time in 5 of their last 6 qualifying matches, therefore, as the games become more important, the tighter and safer their approach.
They will not panic, or over commit in search of an early goal, Paraguay will be delighted to reach half time level and I think this is where the value lies.
Currently 2.28 on Betfair, this is some 9% above my idea of the true odds, so we should bet strongly.
5 points England-Paraguay HT draw 2.28 betfair.
Good Luck.
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