What is value ?

I have heard all the arguments in the past, a 1.10 winner is better than a 9.0 loser, well of course it is, but the idea is to find value. If you toss a coin 2.02 for heads, or tails, is value, unless it is a double headed ( or tailed) coin.

So, if I price up a contest 1.95/ 1.95 and someone offers 2.05 one side, should I bet ? Possibly, but probably not, it is a small difference in percentage terms and my odds could be a little wrong (pains me to say that), what if 2.40 is on offer, or 2.60 ? Yes and yes please, I have to bet ......it is value.

Today we have two such matches at Wimbledon, I cannot really split the players, will go into the reasons later , yet one is available at 2.40 and the other 2.65. This is why, before looking at bookmakers prices, you should have some idea of your own odds. If you decide that x will win today, do not just take the 1.50 on offer, because that is the best price, if you think it has a 60% chance to win it is a bad price, if you consider it 75% sure to win, it is good value.

The first match in question is Agnieszka Radwanska against Tamarine Tanasugarn, the 17 yo Polish girl is going to go a long way in tennis. She won the Junior Wimbledon title last year and the Junior French title this year and already boasts a senior win over Myskina. To reach the third round Agnie beat two fellow, young, eastern europeans and has done nothing wrong. It is very unlikely that I would be opposing her in this match, a year from now.

Tanasugarn is a grass court specialist, this is her tenth year at Wimbledon and she is looking for her seventh, 4th round appearance, that is some going. Her lifetime record here is 23-9 and on grass, has won 67% of almost 100 matches. In qualification, she won all 3 matches in straight sets, dropping only 9 games.

Agnie has unlimited potential, but at this stage of her career, on grass, at the odds on offer, I have to side with the girl from Thailand.

Next up and for very similar reasons, I choose Mikhail Youzhny over the, very talented,
19 yo Novak Djokovic. Both are yet to drop a set, but the Russian has the far greater experience at Wimbledon, in 5 previous visits he has made the 4th round on three occasions, losing each time to top grass courters. Just find the odds baffling.

More online shortly.

3 points Tanasugarn to beat Radwanska 2.40 betfair.
3 points Youzhny to beat Djokovic 2.69 pinnacle.

Good luck.