Thursday, March 29, 2007

THURSDAY NEWS .............

I am going to take a quick look at the ATP tennis in Miami, only putting up one very small bet, but, having investigated the two matches, there are a few stats you might find of value.

Ljubicic leads Chela 5-0 on the h2h meetings, with perhaps surprisingly, three of the wins coming on clay. The Croatian served 13 aces and faced only one break point, in his win over Nienimem.

Chela beat the American qualifier Amer Delic, by an easy looking 3&2 scoreline, however, you should note that his opponent had 10 break points, double what the Argentine player earned. If he gives Ljubicic as many chances today, this will not take too long. I favour the shaven headed one, who looks to be on his way back to form, but cannot find any inspiration in the odds of 1.45 .

The late game features Guillermo Canas, two time conquerer of Roger Federer, in as many weeks, against Tommy Robredo. The Argentine player, was matched at 749-1 to win the tournament on Betfair, during his match with Fed-ex, that bet could now be layed off at 4-1, unfortunately that was not me who took that price !

Since returning from his 15 month ban, for taking a prohibited substance, which many people now accept was a "tournament staff error", he has posted an amazing 42-5 record and is in wonderful form. Guess that is obvious, you do not beat the world number one, twice, without being at the very top of your game.

The problem with him, or the good thing I suppose, is that he walks on court, expecting to be out there for several hours, losing the first set seems to faze him less than any other player on tour.Therefore, he is always worth a second look, to win his match in 3 sets, as he has done in 7 of his last 15 starts on faster courts and that will be my selection.

I will be back later with something for the football and my strong selection fot the women's tennis, where our outright bet on Serena, already looks excellent value.

2 points Canas to beat Robredo 2-1 sets 4.40 Betfair. LOST - 2 pts

Good Luck.

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