Tuesday, May 13, 2008


The schedule could not have drawn up a more dramatic end to the season in Serie A, with the four sides battling for the Scudetto and fighting to avoid relegation, meeting each other.

The criteria for separating teams that finish level on points, is as follows ....

1) Head to head record .... away goals do not count double.
2) Goal difference in h2h matches.
3) Overall goal difference.

Remaining fixtures ....

At the top of the table, Inter hold a one point lead and will be champions with a win, or, by Roma failing to beat Catania. This, by virtue of Inter collecting four points from their two league meetings.

Parma trail Catania by two points and only have one way to survive, they must beat Inter and hope that Roma win. The two strugglers cannot be separated h2h wise, following two draws, but Catania have a superior goal difference.

They is no real possibility of any "collusion" and the only way for both teams playing each other to get their desired outcome, is if Parma and Inter draw, which would leave Catania safe and Roma champions with a win. Therefore ,the draw in Parma,has absolutely no value at all, to either side and the bookmakers that originally priced this outcome at circa 3.40 , have simply not done their homework . Come kick off, the stalemate should be available at 5.50 + and should be avoided. I suppose, if Catania have a big lead late in the game, the other match could fizzle out, but it is hard to see that happening.

If you must get involved in the "draw", at least take it with a small double on the Catania-Catania double result, which would provide a bumper payout.

It will be a fantastic day's viewing and nerves are sure to play a big part, with Fiorentina and Milan both still hoping to claim the remaining Champions League spot, we have the most intriguing final day imaginable.

Stay tuned.

I have previewed three matches on the email service today, all of which are live on television, but am unlikely to post any of them on the blog .

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