....... we are down to just four teams. First up, the host nation take on Italy in Dortmund, where the Germans have never lost, boasting a superb 13-1-0 record, with a goal difference of 59-7.
Argentina dominated possession (58%) over Germany in the quarter finals and restricted them to just 5 chances. Some very poor decisions by the Argentine coach, allowed the Germans back into the game and he has already paid the ultimate price for his ineptitude.
Germany, without the suspended Torsten Frings, now face a miserly Italian defence which has only conceded once this tournament, an own goal against USA. In Marcelo Lippi, they have a coach who will not make the same errors Mr Pekermann made. Nesta, surprisingly, has a small chance to play, Materazzi definitely returns after his suspension.
Italy "owns" Germany, the two met in Florence in March, the Azzurri had a crushing 4-1 victory, which could have been even more. Milan and Juventus, knocked Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen out of the Champions League this year. In six previous meetings in the premier competitions, Germany have never won, although 5 did finish level in 90 minutes.
Italy are on a long unbeaten run of 23 games, rather than distracting the players, the Serie A "scandal" seems to be motivating them, maybe winning the cup is the only way they will be forgiven. They do seem to be peaking at the right time, Luca Toni has finally found the net, they have probably the best coach, certainly the best defence, Germany's is ranked only 29th in the whole tournament (which seems harsh).
Do not see Italy losing today in 90 minutes, the draw is, of course, a big danger, but see a lot of value in the asian line of +1/4.
The odds for Germany NOT to score also look big to me, 3.25 for Italy to keep a clean sheet is very attractive, have to give that a go.
5 points Italy +1/4 1.96 asian line.
2 points Italy to keep clean sheet 3.25 stan james.
Good Luck.
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