Friday, July 07, 2006

Baghdatis- Nadal


This is tough, think the odds on the Cypriot are too big, but feel the Spanish superstar will find a way to win.

They have met only once before, earlier this year in Indian Wells, after a close first set, Nadal "whitewashed" Marcos in the second. Perhaps we should not read too much into this, as the conditions suited Rafa and the Wimbledon courts are much quicker.

I am swaying Baghdatis mainly because he gives up so many break points, in double figures in the first meeting and here against Hewitt and Alan Mackin (who?). He simply will not be able to give Nadal as many opportunities, without paying for them.

This could be a classic, beyond any weather concerns, neither will be afraid of a long match. Four hours is hardly long enough for Rafa and in reaching his first grand slam final in Australia, Marcos had 3 long, 5 set matches against Stepanek, Ljubicic and Nalbandian, three hard men of the tour.

Think this could go all the way, definitely like the "over" 40.5 games, which I feel is faily priced at 2.00 with vc bet. Betfair quote 39.5 games, but there is very little liquidity at present, it may be worthwhile checking this out later, it is scheduled to follow the Federer-Bjorkman match, so no rush.

4 points over 40.5 games Nadal-Baghdatis 2.00 vc bet

Good Luck.

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