Felt sorry for Mario Ancic in the quarters, what more can a man do ? He played incredibly well and would probably have beaten any other player in the world, yet didn't come close to winning even one set. Super Mario hit 7 aces, 24 winners, made only one double fault and 13 unforced errors, he won 72% of first serves , 53% of second and was drubbed.
Fed-ex was awesome, Ancic had to win every point several times, it was the complete performance.
Today the 3 times champion faces 34 yo , Jonas Bjorkman, the doubles specialist is currently
54-1 to win the match, surely the biggest price anyone has ever been in a grand slam semi-final.
They have met three times previously, RF winning all in straight sets, however, in the 7 sets played, 4 have gone to tie breaks, including 2 in the only meeting at Wimbledon, although that was 5 years ago. Federer has yet to drop a set, he will probably win 3-0 today, but at 1.22 max, we are not going to get fat on that, so we will have to look elsewhere for an interest.
Jonas has nothing to lose, not sure that he will ever play in the singles again, but this year has already exceeded his wildest expectations. He has no reason to feel nervous, beyond the fact that no one wants to be demolished in front of millions of viewers.
My best call is that Federer will progress in three, close sets, would not be totally surprised if we had at least one tie break. I am going to take over 30.5 games on Betfair, this is quoted at 2.70 right now, but should be nearer 3.0 later. There is a little money to "lay" at 1.40 + on under (3.50 over) and I am confident that more funds will come in later.
So, the easiest way to collect on this would be one tie break and Jonas to pick up at least 6 games in the other two sets (6-3,6-3).
Of course he could always take a set ! Then we are home and dry. Anything over 2.70 seems like value to me.
In winning Halle, pre Wimbledon, Roger played 14 sets, 8 of which went to a tie breaker. For the more adventurous 7.0 + for Federer to win the first set 7-6, is a fair price, Ladbrokes offer 7.0, others may be bigger, as always, shop around.
3 points over 30.5 games in the Federer-Bjorkman semi 2.70 + betfair
1/2 point Federer to win first set 7-6 ladbrokes 7.0
Good Luck.
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