Wednesday, December 03, 2008


I got my "work" completed early yesterday and sent today's email last night, previewing three matches, including two UEFA Cup games, but giving four selections in total.

To be honest, I have not been the biggest fan of the group stage in the UEFA Cup , as , with three qualifying from five teams, too many matches are uncompetitive. Hopefully, the "major" changes in format, which come in next season, will shake things up a bit and give the competition a higher profile, but somehow, I doubt it .

I /we (subcribers) backed Barcelona pre season to win La Liga, obviously it was not at a huge price (2.30), but yesterday I "closed" that bet out and took my/our profit. Not necessarily because I do not think they will win the league (they probably will), but the current quote of circa 1.38 seems terribly short. They are carrying all before them, but have still to play their three biggest challengers, Villarreal, Valencia and Real Madrid home and away, infact, they face each of them in their next three starts. I do not do a lot of "hedging" maybe 6-7 times per season, but sometimes it just feels like the right thing to do. Why wait another six months to collect 13 points, yet risk losing ten, when a guaranteed 6-7 points are available now ? Especially when you consider the current odds to be too short, it seems like a "no brainer"to me.

I suspect that Barcelona are performing at a level that they are unlikely to be able to maintain, some teams like Real are under performing and can only really improve.

My point is, that I am happy with this piece of business and I think it pays to constantly monitor your position on all bets, especially in long term markets, look not just at the league table, but at what fixtures have been played and what remain. Having said all that, I would not have layed Barce at 1.80, or probably even 1.55, infact, at 1.80 I would have backed them again, it all comes down to what we consider to be the correct odds and whether the current quote offers value. Which is the rule that should govern all our bets.

Good Luck.

No comments: